Guest Post by Anonymous Liberal
Are you curious what a Barack Obama presidential campaign would look like? Well, anyone who lives in Massachusetts already has a pretty good idea. That’s because Deval Patrick, who just won the gubernatorial race there—becoming only the second black governor in U.S. history–did so by borrowing Obama’s chief political consultant, David Axelrod, and using the same playbook Obama is likely to use if he runs for president in 2008. Patrick ran a campaign promising a new kind of politics; he ran on the twin themes of hope and change, much like Bill Clinton did in 1992, and perhaps most notably, he capitalized on the widespread feeling among voters that his campaign represented an historic moment for their state and their country. All in all, it was an extraordinarily effective campaign. To get a sense of the general aesthetic of the campaign, take a moment to watch Patrick’s final campaign ad (click on “TV Spots” and watch Ad #14), which ran during the final week of the campaign. It’s a simple ad, but a very effective one I think.
For those of you not familiar with his story, Deval Patrick was the head of the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division during the Clinton administration, and he later served as the General Counsel for the Coca-Cola Company. When he announced his candidacy for governor in 2005, he was considered a dark horse candidate. The presumptive favorite for the Democratic nomination was Tom Reilly, the popular and well-respected Attorney General. Also in the race was Chris Gabrielli, a well-known and well-financed businessman who had been the Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor in 2002. The primary campaign was heated and produced a flurry of television ads by all the candidates. Despite being attacked repeatedly, Patrick stayed positive and stuck to ads featuring him talking directly to the camera (often with Barack Obama standing in the background). When primary day finally arrived, Patrick stunned his opponents by winning in a landslide.
But that was only half the battle. Despite its reputation as a liberal state, Massachusetts has a long tradition of electing Republican governors. The state hadn’t elected a Democratic governor since Michael Dukakis twenty years ago. The general election quickly turned nasty when Patrick’s Republican opponent, Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey, began running a barrage of attack ads accusing him of, among other things, supporting rapists and cop killers. Patrick defended himself, of course, but he managed to stay above the fray and on message while doing so. He lamented what politics had become and told Healey that she was “a better person than the campaign she has run.”
Patrick’s campaign was overwhelming positive and hopeful in nature, and he ended up winning easily, a result which I think bodes well for Barack Obama. I know what you’re thinking: Massachusetts is hardly representative of the country as a whole. That’s certainly true. But then again, Massachusetts is an overwhelming white state with a somewhat checkered racial history. It’s also, as I said, a state with a well-established history of electing Republican governors. And Patrick didn’t just win; he beat the sitting Lieutenant Governor, who’s as moderate a Republican as you’ll ever come across, by a whopping 21 points.
And while Patrick is certainly an able politician, he is nowhere near as naturally talented or charismatic as Obama. All of this is a long-winded way of saying that I think Obama should be very encouraged by Patrick’s success. The Massachusetts gubernatorial race gave David Axelrod the chance to do a test run—in both a primary and general election setting—of what are sure to be Obama’s principal campaign themes. And it was a smashing success.
What I think the pundits and prognosticators fail to fully appreciate at the moment is the extent to which Obama’s entry into the race—if it happens—will entirely shake up the usual dynamics of presidential politics. Let’s put aside for the moment the fact that Obama is an exceptionally gifted politician, and just consider the following. In 1988, Jesse Jackson won 15 states and picked up almost a third of the delegates to the Democratic National Convention. And he did that without picking up hardly any white votes. If Obama were to run, he might well be able to replicate Jackson’s success among black voters, and he would almost certainly do exponentially better among non-black voters. In other words, he would be a formidable primary candidate.
But I think Deval Patrick’s success hints at an even more interesting dynamic that will arise if Obama should manage to secure the Democratic nomination. If that should happen, it will be THE story. And not just here in the U.S., but around the world. Obama would be the first African-American to win a major party’s presidential nomination. He’d be just one momentous day away from becoming the leader of the free world. No matter what else happens in the campaign, no matter who his opponent is, that single story line will dwarf all others. Throughout the campaign, media coverage will be dominated by discussion of the historical significance of the election. Newspaper and magazine headlines will scream “Is America on the Verge of Making History?” Throughout the country, there will be a pervasive sense that we are on the cusp of a dramatic and important historical event, that we’re about to take a bold new step forward as a nation. And believe me, people will get caught up in it. It will be a potent political phenomenon. Obama’s opponent, whether it be McCain or Romney or whoever, will have to try very hard to counter the sense that he is standing athwart history yelling “stop.”
This same dynamic played out in the Massachusetts gubernatorial race, albeit to a lesser degree. You could tell that people just liked the idea of Deval Patrick. It wasn’t about the issues. People just liked the way Patrick made them feel. They liked the idea that they were making history by voting for him. They liked what his candidacy said about their state and how far it had come. And they liked the fact that Patrick represented something new, different, and hopeful.
Please don’t interpret this post as an endorsement of Obama’s candidacy. I don’t plan on endorsing anyone until much later in the game, if at all. But I do think, without question, that Obama would be a formidable presidential candidate, and I’ll be fascinated to see how things shake out should he decide to run.