{"id":1122,"date":"2004-01-22T11:41:30","date_gmt":"2004-01-22T16:41:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com\/archives\/1122.html"},"modified":"2004-01-22T11:41:30","modified_gmt":"2004-01-22T16:41:30","slug":"kerry-enjoys-post-iowa-bump-in-new-hampshire-while-dean-is-fading-fast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/kerry-enjoys-post-iowa-bump-in-new-hampshire-while-dean-is-fading-fast\/","title":{"rendered":"Kerry enjoys post-Iowa bump in New Hampshire, while Dean is fading fast"},"content":{"rendered":"

A month ago, a Zogby poll<\/a> in New Hampshire was released, showing Howard Dean in the lead with a whopping 42%, Kerry a distant second at 12%, and Clark in single digits at 9%. At the time, I foolishly said<\/a>, “The question isn’t whether Dean will win, it’s how much he’ll win by.” (Note to self: No more predicting more than a month in advance of the vote.)<\/p>\n

What seemed obvious in December is gone; now a whole new set of questions are at hand with less than a week to go before the nation’s first primary. By all indications, at least as of today, Kerry’s post-Iowa bump has propelled him into first place, while Dean’s poor showing in Iowa is driving people away in droves. Here’s some data:<\/p>\n

Boston Globe\/WBZ-TV (MoE +\/- 5%)
\nKerry — 31 percent
\nDean — 21 percent
\nClark — 16 percent
\nEdwards — 11 percent<\/p>\n

Suffolk University-WDHD (MoE +\/- 5%)
\nKerry — 27 percent
\nDean — 19 percent
\nClark — 15 percent
\nEdwards — 7 percent<\/p>\n

Boston Herald-RKM (MoE +\/- 4.5%)
\nKerry — 31 percent
\nDean — 21 percent
\nClark — 16 percent
\nEdwards — 11 percent<\/p>\n

Worth noting in the Boston Herald poll<\/a> is Dean’s unfavorable rating climbing from 21% to 34% in less than a week.<\/p>\n

But even more fun is the American Research Group’s daily tracking poll<\/a>, which has quickly become the must-read data of the day — every day.
\n
\nAs of this morning, ARG sees New Hampshire this way (MoE +\/- 4%):<\/p>\n

Kerry — 27 percent
\nDean — 22 percent
\nClark — 19 percent
\nEdwards — 9 percent<\/p>\n

As the primary gets closer, ARG is increasing its sample size to provide more reliable data. Keep in mind, ARG’s tracking poll combines three day totals — Jan. 17, 18, 19, then 18, 19, 20, then 19, 20, and 21, and so on.<\/p>\n

For just yesterday<\/i>, the 21st, the poll shows a significant swing away from Dean:<\/p>\n

Kerry — 29 percent (no change from Jan. 20)
\nClark — 21 percent (up from 18 percent on Jan. 20)
\nDean — 17 percent (down from 24 percent on Jan. 20)
\nEdwards — 10 percent (no change from Jan. 20)<\/p>\n

Looking at this data, Kerry has a solid lead on first place, but Dean is slipping from second to third, behind Clark.<\/p>\n

I thought on Tuesday that Dean could still recover from his debacle in Iowa by winning New Hampshire and moving into the Feb. 3 primaries with some new-found momentum. If, however, Dean manages to blow a 30-point lead in one month in a state that borders his own by coming in third next Tuesday, one has to assume that Dean’s campaign has imploded and he won’t be able to recover.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A month ago, a Zogby poll in New Hampshire was released, showing Howard Dean in the lead with a whopping 42%, Kerry a distant second at 12%, and Clark in single digits at 9%. At the time, I foolishly said, “The question isn’t whether Dean will win, it’s how much he’ll win by.” (Note to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[617],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1122","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1122","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1122"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1122\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1122"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1122"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1122"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}