{"id":1155,"date":"2004-01-28T12:35:43","date_gmt":"2004-01-28T17:35:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com\/archives\/1155.html"},"modified":"2004-01-28T12:35:43","modified_gmt":"2004-01-28T17:35:43","slug":"the-polls-did-pretty-well-in-new-hampshire","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/the-polls-did-pretty-well-in-new-hampshire\/","title":{"rendered":"The polls did pretty well in New Hampshire"},"content":{"rendered":"

Yesterday I talked about<\/a> how off the pollsters were in Iowa last week. Did they redeem themselves in New Hampshire? By and large, yes.<\/p>\n

Of the five major polls I was watching, all five got the top two correct. One of the outlets — the Marist Institute poll — was almost perfect, predicting a 13-point victory for Kerry over Dean, showing a virtual tie between Clark and Edwards for third place, and predicting a fifth-place finish for Lieberman with 9% — all of which happened exactly.<\/p>\n

The controversial Zogby poll showed Dean a lot closer than he actually was. Zogby had Dean trailing by three points on Monday and seven points on Tuesday. Zogby also appears to have underestimated Edwards’ support a bit, predicting Edwards was tied with Lieberman for fifth place.<\/p>\n

Gallup came awfully close to getting New Hampshire exactly right. It showed Kerry with an 11-point lead (which was just two points off), Dean in second with 25% (only one point off), and Clark in third with 13% (which was exactly right). The only flaw was, like Zogby, Gallup showed Edwards tied with Lieberman for fifth.<\/p>\n

American Research Group was also pretty close, showing Kerry with a 10-point lead, Edwards and Clark about tied, and Lieberman trailing the field. Kerry did a little better than expected, and Edwards a little worse, but on whole, it was a solid result for ARG.<\/p>\n

The Boston Globe\/WBZ poll did the worst, but even it did pretty well. This poll showed Kerry with a 17-point lead, which turned out to be a little too big. The Globe poll’s biggest mistake was understating Clark’s support — it showed him with 8% when he finished third with 13%.<\/p>\n

Overall, I’d give the pollsters an A-. Of course, the two polling outfits that did the worst in Iowa — Survey USA and Research 2000 — were hardly polling in New Hampshire at all. They’ll have a chance to redeem themselves (or perhaps look even worse) next Tuesday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yesterday I talked about how off the pollsters were in Iowa last week. Did they redeem themselves in New Hampshire? By and large, yes. Of the five major polls I was watching, all five got the top two correct. One of the outlets — the Marist Institute poll — was almost perfect, predicting a 13-point […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[617],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1155","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1155","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1155"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1155\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1155"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1155"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1155"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}