I remain one of those silly optimists who believe the Dems have an outside shot at taking back the Senate in November. Of course, I know it won’t be easy, and it appears it might get significantly more difficult in one week.<\/p>\n
If the Dems have any chance at all, we’ll likely have to pick up three seats currently held by Republicans, while holding on to nearly all of our own (I’ve just about given up on Georgia, which is why I think we’d need three seats, not two).<\/p>\n
So, which three GOP seats are we going to take? I think Illinois is looking very good right now, and Alaska is also encouraging. <\/p>\n
In recent months, I’ve also considered Oklahoma a strong possibility. In a seat being vacated by Don Nickles (R), the Dems appear ready to run Rep. Brad Carson<\/a> and all early indications point to success. The polls look good, the money looks good, and Carson’s opponents look bad.<\/p>\n And therein lies the problem. Up until now, the GOP has produced two main rivals to run in the general election: Former Oklahoma City Mayor Kirk Humphreys and State Corporation Commissioner Bob Anthony. Neither have generated much excitement, making Carson’s chances even better.<\/p>\n The problem, however, is that Humphreys and Anthony are doing so poorly, the state GOP is starting to get nervous — and wonder who else they can get for the race.<\/p>\n Unfortunately, former Rep. Tom Coburn (R) is available. In response to an in-state “Draft Coburn” effort, Coburn announced<\/a> last week that he’ll announce on March 1 whether he’ll run for the seat.<\/p>\n
\n
\nCoburn, a three-term House member who kept his term limits pledge and retired in 2000, is probably the best candidate the GOP can find short of Nickles himself. Coburn was not only a popular conservative lawmaker, he’s also a respected physician (obstetrician.)<\/p>\n