{"id":1319,"date":"2004-02-26T13:27:55","date_gmt":"2004-02-26T18:27:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com\/archives\/1319.html"},"modified":"2004-02-26T13:27:55","modified_gmt":"2004-02-26T18:27:55","slug":"fma-backers-just-dont-have-the-votes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/fma-backers-just-dont-have-the-votes\/","title":{"rendered":"FMA backers just don&#8217;t have the votes"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bush may want a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, but unless he&#8217;s figured out a way to get one ratified without the U.S. Senate, it doesn&#8217;t much matter.<\/p>\n<p>Several sites are posting updated <a href=\"http:\/\/www.democraticunderground.com\/discuss\/duboard.php?az=view_all&#038;address=104x1163292\">head counts<\/a> on senators&#8217; positions on the so-called Federal Marriage Amendment. With a two-thirds threshold for passage, 34 senators can block this proposal from moving forward.<\/p>\n<p>And it looks like that&#8217;s not going to be a problem.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.oxblog.blogspot.com\/2004_02_22_oxblog_archive.html#107772059078594254\">Josh Chafetz at Oxblog<\/a> has a running tally based on specific statements made by the lawmakers about the FMA. So far, he&#8217;s identified 33 senators (27 Dems, 5 Republicans, and 1 Independent who caucuses with the Dems) who are formally opposed. That&#8217;s not including several Dem Senators who will <i>definitely<\/i> vote against this but whom Chafetz has not yet heard from, including Feinstein (D-Calif.), Harkin (D-Iowa), Inouye (D-Hawaii), Kohl (D-Wis.), Lautenberg (D-N.J.), Levin (D-Mich.), Lieberman (D-Conn.), Mikulski (D-Md.), Reed (D-R.I.), and Sarbanes (D-Md).<\/p>\n<p>When you start to add these senators to the mix, one starts to see that the amendment not only won&#8217;t get two-thirds, it may have trouble getting a <i>bare majority<\/i>.<\/p>\n<p>Like <a href=\"http:\/\/www.talkingpointsmemo.com\/archives\/week_2004_02_22.html#002614\">Josh Marshall<\/a>, I find it encouraging that there are so many Republicans who have already expressed opposition, including everyone&#8217;s favorite New England moderates &#8212; Chafee (R.I.), Collins (Maine), and Snowe (Maine). But it&#8217;s also great to see a few unpredictable GOP mavericks &#8212; Alexander (Tenn.), Hagel (Neb.), and McCain (Ariz.) &#8212; announce they&#8217;ll vote against it, too.<\/p>\n<p>I don&#8217;t like making predictions, but it&#8217;s safe at this point to say this amendment will <i>not<\/i> be passing Congress this year. They&#8217;ll probably try again next year, with some fairly significant changes in the Senate&#8217;s makeup due to a series of retirements, but with a little luck, the amendment&#8217;s backers won&#8217;t have an ally in the White House to lead the call anymore.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bush may want a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, but unless he&#8217;s figured out a way to get one ratified without the U.S. Senate, it doesn&#8217;t much matter. Several sites are posting updated head counts on senators&#8217; positions on the so-called Federal Marriage Amendment. With a two-thirds threshold for passage, 34 senators can block [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[617],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1319","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1319","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1319"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1319\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1319"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1319"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1319"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}