For a couple of generations, every major presidential candidate, from both parties, has taken the same position on U.S. policy towards Cuba: keep the status quo. The embargo needs to stay in place in order to “keep the pressure” on Castro. Any thawing in relations would be a victory for a brutal thug, and would enrage a powerful voting bloc (Cuban Americans) in a key electoral state (Florida).<\/p>\n
With that in mind, no candidate has been willing to talk openly about a change. I distinctly remember in 2004 when Wesley Clark said in a debate he wanted a dramatic shake-up in the existing policy. “When you isolate a country, you strengthen the dictators in it,” Clark said. The next day, Clark’s campaign backpedaled, after aides heard from supporters in Miami.<\/p>\n
This year, Chris Dodd and Barack Obama went out on a limb and said the status quo isn’t good enough, and had the audacity to point that the current policy doesn’t actually work<\/i>. They no doubt expected Republicans to try to exploit this, but made the case anyway.<\/p>\n
Dodd stepped aside in January, but Obama is poised to be the first Democratic candidate in a half-century to offer a real change when it comes to Cuba. Today, John McCain intends to smack him on it<\/a> pretty hard in a speech in Miami.<\/p>\n In an indication that John McCain sees foreign policy as the best route to take on Barack Obama — and that he will take it frequently — McCain is set to roll out another tough attack, with a speech today to the Cuban community in Miami. At the rate things are going, the McCain camp will be hitting Obama on some new foreign policy point every day.<\/p>\n “Just a few years ago, Senator Obama had a very clear view on Cuba,” McCain will say, according to prepared excerpts, then quoting Obama saying that normalization of relations would improve conditions for the Cuban people.<\/p>\n “Now Senator Obama has shifted positions and says he only favors easing the embargo, not lifting it. He also wants to sit down unconditionally for a presidential meeting with Raul Castro. These steps would send the worst possible signal to Cuba’s dictators — there is no need to undertake fundamental reforms, they can simply wait for a unilateral change in US policy.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n It’s obviously an off-shoot of the debate over Iran — McCain believes the silent treatment is an effective foreign policy in relation to rivals and enemies; Obama believes the opposite.<\/p>\n Indeed, McCain is apparently prepared to argue that Bush’s policy towards Cuba hasn’t been far enough<\/i> to the right. Commemorating Cuban Independence Day, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee seeks to distance himself from President George W. Bush’s Cuba policy by taking a tougher stance while also criticizing Barack Obama’s approach as too accommodating. <\/p>\n The Arizona senator said the U.S. trade embargo against Cuba must remain in place until basic elements of democratic society are established.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n As for Obama’s willingness to change U.S. policy and consider diplomacy with Cuba, McCain will say open discussions “would send the worst possible signal to Cuba’s dictators.”<\/p>\n The conventional wisdom suggests McCain’s criticism will be well received in South Florida, and Obama will face a serious push-back on this. But I’m not at all sure the conventional wisdom is right on this. Michael Tomasky noted<\/a> yesterday:<\/p>\n [Obama] has signalled that he’d dramatically alter the US’s hard-line Cuba policy. He’s not alone in thinking it’s outdated. Brent Scowcroft, a Republican foreign-policy high priest who worked for George Bush Sr, said last week that the American embargo “makes no sense” any more.<\/p>\n This freaks some people out. And in electoral terms, it makes them think that Obama has thrown away Florida, home of a large, conservative Cuban-American community. But Florida’s Latino population is no longer majority-Cuban. And just this month, the news broke that more Latinos in Florida are Democrats than Republicans — a major historical shift. Could it be that Obama is on to something?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
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\nBloomberg reported<\/a> today:<\/p>\n