I have mixed feelings about the result of yesterday’s knock-down, drag-out GOP Senate primary in Pennsylvania. Sen. Arlen Specter barely kept his career alive with 51% support, eking out a victory over Rep. Pat Toomey’s 49%.<\/p>\n
As much as I loathe Toomey’s ultra-conservative ideology, he would have helped Dems in Pennsylvania with an upset victory. And I don’t just mean Dem Senate candidate Joe Hoeffel.<\/p>\n
Looking at the race and its implications, I’d say there were several winners and losers.<\/p>\n
George W. Bush, who threw his support behind Specter enthusiastically, was the only man in America happier than Specter last night. A Toomey victory would have put the president in a very<\/i> tough spot.<\/p>\n
More importantly, Rove and Mehlman put a new GOP campaign model to work in Pennsylvania — which apparently worked well enough — and will be used again in November. Had Specter lost, Bush’s chances of winning the state this year would have fallen considerably. Indeed, as National Journal’s Chuck Todd explained<\/a> today, there was even “serious talk that the Bush campaign would have essentially pulled out of Pennsylvania in the presidential — maybe not with their TV ads but definitely with their presidential visits.”<\/p>\n Club for Growth, meanwhile, lost big. They desperately wanted Specter out and threw everything they had behind Toomey. Now the right-wing group is out $2 million and has lost credibility. Club for Growth’s raison d’etre is telling moderate Republicans that they’ll suffer unless they follow a far-right agenda. Those threats appear a lot less serious this morning.<\/p>\n Survey USA, which I’ve always been a little skeptical of because it uses robotic phone banks instead of people, wins bragging rights today. They called this race<\/a> better than everyone — but I’m still stubbornly unconvinced about its methodology. Taking the “glass is half-full” side is Kos, who believes Hoeffel benefits from the months of pounding Specter has endured. “[Hoeffel] now gets to face a bloodied and poorer sitting senator representing a bitterly divided party,” Kos noted<\/a> last night.<\/p>\n I don’t entirely disagree that Specter has taken a few lumps, but all things being equal, Hoeffel stood a much<\/i> better chance of beating Toomey. Even as Toomey was hammering away at Specter, every poll conducted this year shows Hoeffel trailing Specter by wide margins among all voters statewide. <\/p>\n
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\nAnd, of course, there’s Hoeffel, the Dem candidate Specter will face in November. I know there’s competing schools of thought on this, but I think yesterday’s results are bad news for him.<\/p>\n