It’s Friday afternoon and, as always, I’m wrapping another week with some state-by-state polling data for the presidential race. As with every other Poll Day, these results were released within the last seven days.<\/p>\n
Arizona<\/b> (10 electoral votes) New Hampshire<\/b> (4 electoral votes) New York<\/b> (31 electoral votes) Pennsylvania<\/b> (21 electoral votes) Oregon<\/b> (7 electoral votes) Oklahoma<\/b> (7 electoral votes) Wisconsin<\/b> (10 electoral votes) It’s Friday afternoon and, as always, I’m wrapping another week with some state-by-state polling data for the presidential race. As with every other Poll Day, these results were released within the last seven days. Arizona (10 electoral votes) Arizona State\/KAET — Bush 41, Kerry 38, Nader 3 Comment: It’s nice to see Kerry well within […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[617],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1686","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1686","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1686"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1686\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1686"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1686"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1686"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nArizona State\/KAET<\/a> — Bush 41, Kerry 38, Nader 3
\nComment<\/i>: It’s nice to see Kerry well within striking distance in a historically Republican state (having voted for the GOP candidate in 12 of the last 13 elections). Bush won by 6% in 2000, so the 3-point spread here is encouraging. On the other hand, a similar ASU poll from February showed Kerry with a 2-point lead (46-44). This will nevertheless be a key target for a Dem pick-up this year.<\/p>\n
\nRasmussen<\/a> — Kerry 47, Bush 45
\nComment<\/i>: Bush beat Gore by just 7,000 votes in 2000 (while 22,000 New Hampshirites voted for Nader). It only has 4 electoral votes — not enough to push Kerry to victory by itself — but I think it’s the most likely state in the Union to go from “Red” to “Blue.”<\/p>\n
\nAlbany Times Union<\/a> — Kerry 51, Bush 32
\nComment: I’m not even sure why anyone would bother to commission polls in New York anymore.<\/p>\n
\nIssuesPA\/Pew Forum<\/a> — Kerry 42, Bush 42, Nader 5
\nComment<\/i>: I consider this very encouraging. Bush has been running anti-Kerry ads aggressively in Pennsylvania for months, but this poll suggests they aren’t working. It’s the “Blue” state Bush wants most, but if this keeps up, he’ll have to look elsewhere.<\/p>\n
\nRasmussen<\/a> — Kerry 46, Bush 45
\nComment<\/i>: Gore barely won here in 2000 (winning by just 7,000 votes), but it certainly leans left. Dems have won four of the last four in Oregon. It won’t hurt that Sen. Ron Wyden (D) is probably going to cruise to another term aginst minimal GOP opposition.
\n
\nNorth Carolina<\/b> (15 electoral votes)
\nBennett, Petts and Blumenthal — Bush 51, Kerry 44
\nComment<\/i>: A few caveats with this one. First, it was conducted in early April but released yesterday. Second, the poll was on behalf of the DSCC, not a news outlet. Regardless, Bush beat Gore in North Carolina by 13 points in 2000. With that in mind, I consider this seven-point margin pretty good. And if Edwards is on the ticket, who knows?<\/p>\n
\nConsumer Logic — Bush 55, Kerry 36
\nComment<\/i>: Another caveat here. As with the NC poll, this one was conducted in early April but released late last week. It doesn’t really matter, though; Oklahoma won’t be competitive. It’s gone with the GOP in 12 of the last 13 presidential elections, and unlike Arizona, they haven’t been close. The one wild card: the OK race to replace Don Nickles, which is currently being led by Rep. Brad Carson (D).<\/p>\n
\nWPR\/St. Norbert College<\/a> — Kerry 46, Bush 40, Nader 8
\nRasmussen<\/a> — Kerry 45, Bush 41, Nader 8
\nComment<\/i>: Bush is targeting Wisconsin because of Gore’s very narrow victory here in 2000 (just 0.2%). These polls suggest, however, Bush isn’t exactly popular here. As long as some — just some — of those Nader voters go with Kerry, we should be fine. Nader got 3.6% in 2000; there’s no way it will be any higher than that. History is on our side: Wisconsin has gone with the Dem in four of the last four (Dukakis even won by a comfortable margin). As with Oregon, Kerry will probably benefit from Sen. Russ Feingold’s re-election campaign, which is progressing nicely.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"