{"id":1741,"date":"2004-05-11T10:39:33","date_gmt":"2004-05-11T15:39:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com\/archives\/1741.html"},"modified":"2004-05-11T10:39:33","modified_gmt":"2004-05-11T15:39:33","slug":"46-and-falling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/46-and-falling\/","title":{"rendered":"46% and falling"},"content":{"rendered":"

Just two short months ago, Bush pollster Matt Dowd offered<\/a> the gem of a quote:<\/p>\n

“Normally, presidents finish roughly the same as their job approval numbers.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

I largely agree with this and find it particularly encouraging in light of the latest poll numbers from Gallup<\/a> reflecting Bush’s record-low job approval.<\/p>\n

President Bush’s approval rating dropped to the lowest of his presidency in a poll taken after a week of revelations about abuse of Iraqi prisoners and questions about whether Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld should keep his job. <\/p>\n

Forty-six percent of Americans approve of Bush’s job performance in the USA TODAY\/CNN\/Gallup Poll released Monday. That’s 3 percentage points lower than his 49% in late January, early March and last week.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The predictable response from Bush supporters is that it’s still early in a campaign year. That’s true; Election Day is still 175 days away. But the fact remains that Bush’s predecessors from the last 30 years with similar approval ratings at similar points on the calendar all lost.<\/p>\n

As The New Republic’s Ryan Lizza noted<\/a> yesterday:<\/p>\n

At this point in their losing reelection campaigns, Jimmy Carter was at 43% in the Gallup poll, and George H.W. Bush was at 42%. Their numbers kept sinking right up to Election Day. However, in their winning campaigns, Ronald Reagan was at 54% at this point, and Bill Clinton was at 55%. Neither of them ever dipped below 52% from May onward.<\/p>\n

Bush is looking less like Reagan and Clinton and more like Carter and Bush 41 every day.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n


\nGoing over the Gallup data, there’s almost no good news for the White House.<\/p>\n

* Approval rating<\/i> — At 46% support, Bush’s approval rating has never been lower, while his disapproval rating, 51%, has never been higher.<\/p>\n

* The economy<\/i> — The public widely disapproves of Bush’s handling of economic affairs. Only 41% support Bush on the economy (tied for the lowest of his presidency), while 56% disapprove (tied for the highest of his presidency).<\/p>\n

* Iraq<\/i> — A year ago, the public supported Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq by a three-to-one margin. Now, 58% disapprove of poll respondents said they approve of Bush’s efforts (a record high) while only 41% approve (a record low).<\/p>\n

Perhaps the most interesting numbers are seen when Americans were asked if they were satisfied or dissatisfied with the direction of the country. An unusually high 62% said we’re on the wrong track, while only 37% said they were satisfied. (In contrast, the numbers were more than reversed under Clinton. In 1999, a record-high of 71% said they were satisfied with the nation’s direction, while only 26% disagreed.)<\/p>\n

It is this question that seems to strike the most fear into the Bush campaign. When voters are unsatisfied with where the nation is headed, they invariably support a challenger over an incumbent. Charlie Cook noted<\/a> today, for example:<\/p>\n

As veteran Republican pollster Steve Lombardo put it, the “wrong track is approaching the danger zone for an incumbent.” Lombardo noted that “some polls show it as high as 62 percent,” and he suggested the high “wrong track” number was “most likely a result of Iraq volatility and the prisoner abuse scandal — it is hugely problematic for the president.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Keep in mind, that’s a Republican<\/i> pollster.<\/p>\n

The discouraging news was that these numbers have not yet led to a big lead for Kerry, suggesting that Bush’s misleading, negative ads may be having some effect. Kerry enjoys significant leads over Bush among all U.S. adults (51-43), and registered voters (50-44), but Bush still enjoys a slight advantage over Kerry among self-identified likely voters (48-47).<\/p>\n

That said, the last president six points behind among registered voters six months before the election was Gerald Ford in 1976. He lost.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Just two short months ago, Bush pollster Matt Dowd offered the gem of a quote: “Normally, presidents finish roughly the same as their job approval numbers.” I largely agree with this and find it particularly encouraging in light of the latest poll numbers from Gallup reflecting Bush’s record-low job approval. President Bush’s approval rating dropped […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[617],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1741","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1741","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1741"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1741\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1741"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1741"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1741"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}