As you’ve hopefully come to expect on Friday afternoons, it’s time for everyone’s favorite weekly feature — Poll Day. As always, these are the statewide presidential polls released over the last seven days.<\/p>\n
West Virginia<\/b> (5 electoral votes)
\nMason-Dixon — Kerry 47, Bush 41
\nComment<\/i>: This is definitely the poll of the week. After months of polls showing Bush with a narrow lead in this historically Dem state, Kerry appears to have broken through. This poll, just released last night, has nothing but good news. Kerry has a strong 10-point lead among West Virginia’s self-identified independents and beats Bush in all three of the state’s congressional districts. Kerry’s efforts here are paying off.<\/p>\n
Illinois<\/b> (21 electoral votes) Michigan<\/b> (17 electoral votes) Minnesota<\/b> (10 electoral votes) Ohio<\/b> (20 electoral votes)
\nChicago Tribune\/WGN<\/a> — Kerry 54, Bush 38 (or Kerry 53, Bush 37, Nader 4)
\nComment<\/i>: I’m not sure why they’re even bothering to commission polls in Illinois anymore; Kerry’s lead just keeps getting bigger. Here’s a fun angle to consider: Who will have a tougher time getting on the Illinois ballot<\/a> this year, Bush or Nader?<\/p>\n
\nSurvey USA<\/a> — Kerry 47, Bush 43
\nComment<\/i>: Here’s another one that’s hot of the press. Oddly enough, this is the exact same result of SUSA poll in Michigan from early May. Bush is on the air in Michigan now, but it’s unlikely he’ll really put the state in play.<\/p>\n
\nSt. Paul Pioneer Press<\/a> — Kerry 44, Bush 41, Nader 2
\nComment<\/i>: This sounds about right. Minnesota was scarily close in 2000, but the state has gone with the Dems in each of the last seven presidential elections — the only state in the Union to do so. I still expect Kerry to make it eight for eight.<\/p>\n
\nCleveland Plain Dealer<\/a> — Bush 47, Kerry 41, Nader 3
\nRasmussen<\/a> — Bush 46, Kerry 44
\nComment<\/i>: Don’t panic. Every Ohio poll result from the last month or so has been all over the map. The Plain Dealer shows Bush with a sizable lead, but others<\/a> show Kerry with an equally big lead. This is still a state that is very much in play and Kerry will fight hard for it through November.
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\nMontana<\/b> (3 electoral votes)
\nLee Newspapers<\/a> — Bush 53, Kerry 33
\nComment<\/i>: Bush beat Gore in 2000 by 25 points, so can we consider a 20-point gap a “moral victory”? Here’s some trivia for you: Montana was the only Plains state Clinton won in 1992. Must have been a fluke.<\/p>\n