The partisan split within Florida’s Cuban-American community is well known. Old-timers, who fled Castro’s brutal revolution and have been in the U.S. for 30 or more years, have always been staunch Republicans. Younger Cuban-Americans, most of whom were born in the U.S., have proven to be less rigid about the embargo and partisanship.<\/p>\n
But I was surprised at just how stark the difference was<\/a> in a poll conducted last week.<\/p>\n Democrat John Kerry enjoys a commanding lead over President Bush among Cuban Americans born in the United States and a decided edge among Cubans who arrived in the country after 1980, according to a new poll of Miami-Dade Hispanics that reveals deep divisions within a community traditionally viewed as staunchly Republican.<\/p>\n The poll, commissioned by a Democratic group that is targeting Hispanic voters, shows Kerry with a 58-32 percent advantage among Cubans born in the United States, suggesting that the Massachusetts senator has an opportunity to siphon potentially critical support from Bush.<\/p>\n But the poll, to be released today, shows Bush crushing Kerry among the largest — and perhaps most politically active and vocal — group of Cuban-American voters: those who arrived before the 1980 Mariel boatlift. Those voters — who make up about two-thirds of all Cuban-American registered voters in Miami-Dade, according to the survey — back the Republican incumbent overwhelmingly, 89 to 8 percent, with just 3 percent undecided.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n That’s quite a difference. Kerry enjoys a lead over Bush among younger Cubans but can’t even reach double digits among the old-timers.<\/p>\n There’s good news and bad news here for Dems. The bad news there are more pre-1980 voters. Among all Cuban-Americans, Bush enjoys a comfortable lead, 69% to 21%. The good news is Bush’s support has dropped considerably over the last four years. In 2000, Bush enjoyed 81% of the Cuban-American vote.<\/p>\n Will a 12-point drop be enough to make a difference on Election Day? You bet it will. Gore “lost” Florida by 500 votes. This year, there won’t be a “butterfly” ballot in Palm Beach and Bush’s support in the Cuban community is falling fast. Those are 27 electoral votes that are still very much up-for-grabs.
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\nAnd, let’s not forget, the crackdown on travel and remittances isn’t exactly shoring up Bush’s support; on the contrary, it’s creating a bit of a backlash<\/a>.<\/p>\n