It’s time for everybody’s favorite Friday feature — Poll Day, my round-up of statewide presidential polls released over the last seven days. (If you’re new, welcome; we do this every Friday.)<\/p>\n
This week’s Poll Day is the biggest ever, with a whopping 36 states offering data. Some of the numbers are encouraging, others not so much. There are several “Red” states that are competitive enough to make the Republicans very nervous (Colorado, Missouri, Nevada), while there are some “Blue” states that appear to be moving in the wrong direction (especially Wisconsin). Also note that pollsters are definitely playing favorites right now — there are three polls out of Wisconsin this week, and five each<\/i> for Minnesota and Pennsylvania.<\/p>\n
A few other notes to consider: Rasmussen doesn’t include Nader in any of its polling, even in states where he’s likely to be on the ballot. American Research Group included Nader, but was omitted here in states where his support was below 1%. Strategic Vision is a Republican polling outfit, so keep that in mind when you consider their data. There were also some interesting national polls released in the last few days, which I reference below the state data.<\/p>\n
As always, all of my data reflects “likely voters,” when available. And without further ado…<\/p>\n
Alabama<\/b> (9 electoral votes) Alaska<\/b> (3 electoral votes) California<\/b> (55 electoral votes) Florida<\/b> (27 electoral votes) Georgia<\/b> (15 electoral votes) Hawaii<\/b> (4 electoral votes) Idaho<\/b> (4 electoral votes) Illinois<\/b> (21 electoral votes) Indiana<\/b> (11 electoral votes) Kansas<\/b> (6 electoral votes) Kentucky<\/b> (8 electoral votes) Louisiana<\/b> (9 electoral votes) Maine<\/b> (4 electoral votes) Maryland<\/b> (10 electoral votes) Massachusetts<\/b> (12 electoral votes) Michigan<\/b> (17 electoral votes) Minnesota<\/b> (10 electoral votes) Missouri<\/b> (11 electoral votes) Montana<\/b> (3 electoral votes) Nebraska<\/b> (5 electoral votes) Nevada<\/b> (5 electoral votes) New Jersey<\/b> (15 electoral votes) New York<\/b> (31 electoral votes) North Carolina<\/b> (15 electoral votes) North Dakota<\/b> (3 electoral votes) Ohio<\/b> (20 electoral votes) Oregon<\/b> (7 electoral votes) Pennsylvania<\/b> (21 electoral votes) Rhode Island<\/b> (4 electoral votes) South Dakota<\/b> (3 electoral votes) Utah<\/b> (5 electoral votes) Vermont<\/b> (4 electoral votes) Washington<\/b> (11 electoral votes) Wisconsin<\/b> (10 electoral votes) Wyoming<\/b> (3 electoral votes) As for the national polling data, which I continue to find largely useless at this point, there’s been widespread hand-wringing. Too much, in fact.<\/p>\n Bush got a bump in the polls immediately after the GOP convention. Was this pleasant to watch? Of course not. Did it last? Definitely not.<\/p>\n The Pew Research Center, for example, released a poll showing Bush’s 16-point, post-convention lead disappearing completely this week. The race, Pew says, is now at Bush 47, Kerry 46. If that should cause anyone to panic, it’s BC04, not those of us anxious for a Kerry victory.<\/p>\n Likewise, Rasmussen, Zogby, and ICR show Bush’s lead at one or two points, while American Research Group and Harris Interactive show Kerry<\/i> with a modest lead. In other words, we’ve come full circle in just a couple of weeks. The race was effectively tied at the national level before the GOP convention and it’s effectively tied at the national level now. So for goodness sakes, get over your anxiety and start rejecting the media myth that Bush’s campaign is “surging ahead.” It’s not.<\/p>\n But, I hear you asking, what about Gallup? Yes, I’ve seen the new poll showing Bush’s lead growing to 13 points in the new Gallup poll. Frankly, I don’t care what Gallup says anymore; they’ve been too wrong for too long. When six — count ’em, six — national polls conducted at the same time show the race within two points either way and one poll says Bush is up by 13, it’s pretty easy to believe that the oddball is probably wrong.<\/p>\n Indeed, it also didn’t make any sense when Gallup was the only polling outfit to show Kerry getting a negative<\/i> bounce after the Dem National Convention. And it was equally nonsensical when, less than a week before Gore won the popular vote by 500,000 votes, Gallup had Bush up by 13 points<\/a> nationally.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" It’s time for everybody’s favorite Friday feature — Poll Day, my round-up of statewide presidential polls released over the last seven days. (If you’re new, welcome; we do this every Friday.) This week’s Poll Day is the biggest ever, with a whopping 36 states offering data. Some of the numbers are encouraging, others not so […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[617],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2561","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2561","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2561"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2561\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2561"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2561"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2561"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nCapital Survey<\/a> — Bush 54, Kerry 34
\nRasmussen<\/a> — Bush 53, Kerry 42<\/p>\n
\nAmerican Research Group<\/a> — Bush 57, Kerry 30, Nader 5<\/p>\n
\nAmerican Research Group<\/a> — Kerry 52, Bush 41
\n
\nColorado<\/b> (9 electoral votes)
\nAmerican Research Group<\/a> — Bush 46, Kerry 45, Nader 3
\nRocky Mountain News<\/a> — Bush 45, Kerry 44
\nComment<\/i>: Bush won Colorado by eight points four years ago, but now it’s looking like a prime pick-up opportunity. With nine electoral votes on the line, that’s no small feat.<\/p>\n
\nSurvey USA<\/a> — Bush 51, Kerry 45<\/p>\n
\nStrategic Vision<\/a> — Bush 58, Kerry 36<\/p>\n
\nAmerican Research Group<\/a> — Kerry 51, Bush 41, Nader 4<\/p>\n
\nAmerican Research Group<\/a> — Bush 59, Kerry 30, Nader 3<\/p>\n
\nSurvey USA<\/a> — Kerry 49, Bush 45<\/p>\n
\nSurvey USA<\/a> — Bush 60, Kerry 36
\nResearch 2000<\/a> — Bush 54, Kerry 38<\/p>\n
\nSurvey USA<\/a> — Bush 60, Kerry 35<\/p>\n
\nSurvey USA<\/a> — Bush 56, Kerry 39
\nAmerican Research Group<\/a> — Bush 57, Kerry 39, Nader 1<\/p>\n
\nMarketing Research<\/a> –Bush 53, Kerry 36<\/p>\n
\nZogby<\/a> — Kerry 43, Bush 43
\nAmerican Research Group<\/a> — Kerry 48, Bush 44, Nader 4<\/p>\n
\nAmerican Research Group<\/a> — Kerry 52, Bush 43, Nader 2<\/p>\n
\nAmerican Research Group<\/a> — Kerry 64, Bush 27<\/p>\n
\nGallup<\/a> — Kerry 50, Bush 44<\/p>\n
\nStar-Tribune<\/a> — Kerry 50, Bush 41
\nGallup<\/a> — Bush 45, Kerry 45
\nMason-Dixon<\/a> — Bush 46, Kerry 45
\nStrategic Vision<\/a> — Kerry 49, Bush 45
\nAmerican Research Group<\/a> — Kerry 47, Bush 45, Nader 2<\/p>\n
\nSurvey USA<\/a> — Bush 48, Kerry 46<\/p>\n
\nAmerican Research Group<\/a> — Bush 60, Kerry 32, Nader 3<\/p>\n
\nAmerican Research Group<\/a> — Bush 61, Kerry 30, Nader 2<\/p>\n
\nSurvey USA<\/a> — Bush 51, Kerry 47<\/p>\n
\nStrategic Vision<\/a> — Kerry 47, Bush 43
\nSurvey USA<\/a> — Bush 49, Kerry 45<\/p>\n
\nQuinnipiac<\/a> — Kerry 47, Bush 41
\nMarist<\/a> — Kerry 48, Bush 40<\/p>\n
\nRasmussen<\/a> — Bush 55, Kerry 42<\/p>\n
\nAmerican Research Group<\/a> — Bush 62, Kerry 33, Nader 1<\/p>\n
\nColumbus Dispatch<\/a> — Kerry 46, Bush 46
\nStrategic Vision<\/a> — Bush 52, Kerry 42<\/p>\n
\nAmerican Research Group<\/a> — Kerry 47, Bush 45, Nader 2<\/p>\n
\nSurvey USA<\/a> — Kerry 49, Bush 47
\nRasmussen<\/a> — Bush 49, Kerry 48
\nABC News<\/a> — Bush 49, Kerry 48
\nQuinnipiac<\/a> — Bush 47, Kerry 44
\nKeystone<\/a> — Kerry 49, Bush 49<\/p>\n
\nAmerican Research Group<\/a> — Kerry 58, Bush 30, Nader 4<\/p>\n
\nRasmussen<\/a> — Bush 51, Kerry 41
\nAmerican Research Group<\/a> — Bush 58, Kerry 39, Nader 1<\/p>\n
\nDeseret Morning News<\/a> — Bush 65, Kerry 25
\nAmerican Research Group<\/a> — Bush 64, Kerry 27, Nader 4
\nComment<\/i>: Four percent of Utahans are backing Nader?<\/p>\n
\nAmerican Research Group<\/a> — Kerry 50, Bush 40, Nader 4<\/p>\n
\nAmerican Research Group<\/a> — Kerry 51, Bush 44, Nader 2
\nComment<\/i>: I heard this week that the Bush campaign was all but giving up on Washington, pulling most of their ad money and redirecting it to more competitive states. Kerry’s lead may only be seven, but this one’s pretty much a done deal.<\/p>\n
\nGallup<\/a> — Bush 52, Kerry 44
\nRasmussen<\/a> — Bush 49, Kerry 47
\nStrategic Vision<\/a> — Bush 49, Kerry 44
\nComment<\/i>: Someday, someone will have to explain to me how this state slipped so far, so fast.<\/p>\n
\nAmerican Research Group<\/a> — Bush 65, Kerry 29, Nader 2<\/p>\n