If you’re a Carpetbagger regular, you know the drill. If you’re new, welcome; we do this every Friday. It’s time for my round-up of statewide presidential polls released over the last seven days — a little something I call “Poll Day.” Also this week, we have the 10th installment of the Zogby Interactive\/Wall Street Journal survey. As always, because of concerns I have over its methodology, I’ve kept the data separate from the other polls.<\/p>\n
There’s plenty to make Dems smile this week. Indeed, these are the first numbers to reflect Kerry’s post-debate bounce in earnest. Going through the states, it’s pretty easy to notice which polls were done before Bush and Kerry met in Miami and which ones were conducted after — just look for how big Kerry’s lead is.<\/p>\n
Most of this week’s numbers are positive and encouraging. Iowa and New Mexico are finally back to Blue, Ohio is as competitive as it’s been since the early summer, and Pennsylvania is looking to be solid Kerry territory. And as usual, no one has a clue what’s going on in Florida.<\/p>\n
One more side note for those of you who don’t want to wait until Friday afternoons to see state polls. My friend Bob is doing a tremendous job at 2.004k.com<\/a> of keeping up-to-date state data available. He does a much better job of keeping track of these numbers than I do, so feel free to swing by<\/a> his site and tell him Carpetbagger sent you.<\/p>\n Alabama<\/b> (9 electoral votes) Arizona<\/b> (10 electoral votes) California<\/b> (55 electoral votes) Florida<\/b> (27 electoral votes) Illinois<\/b> (21 electoral votes) Indiana<\/b> (11 electoral votes) Iowa<\/b> (7 electoral votes) Maine<\/b> (4 electoral votes) Maryland<\/b> (10 electoral votes) Michigan<\/b> (17 electoral votes) Minnesota<\/b> (10 electoral votes) Missouri<\/b> (11 electoral votes) Nevada<\/b> (5 electoral votes) New Hampshire<\/b> (4 electoral votes) New Jersey<\/b> (15 electoral votes) New Mexico<\/b> (5 electoral votes) North Carolina<\/b> (15 electoral votes) Ohio<\/b> (20 electoral votes) Pennsylvania<\/b> (21 electoral votes) Tennessee<\/b> (11 electoral votes) Texas<\/b> (34 electoral votes) Washington<\/b> (11 electoral votes) Wisconsin<\/b> (10 electoral votes)
\nSurvey USA<\/a> — Bush 62, Kerry 34
\nComment<\/i>: Can we please stop polling Alabama now?<\/p>\n
\nArizona Republic<\/a> — Bush 48, Kerry 38
\nComment<\/i>: This poll, conducted after the Miami debate, looks bad at first blush. Sure, Kerry’s down by 10, which is hard to be happy about. On the other hand, Bush has lost 6 points of support over the last month and the number of undecideds has nearly doubled, from 7 points to 13. Ultimately, Kerry almost certainly won’t win here, but it’s encouraging to see Bush’s support drop so quickly in a state he’s supposed to win easily.<\/p>\n
\nField Poll<\/a> — Kerry 49, Bush 40
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\nColorado<\/b> (9 electoral votes)
\nGallup<\/a> — Kerry 49, Bush 49, Nader 1
\nComment<\/i>: Keep your eye on Colorado. Right now, it’s poised to be the west’s key battleground state. And with a ballot initiative on proportionate electoral vote allocation, election lawyers might as well start making hotel reservations in Denver now to beat the rush.<\/p>\n
\nSurvey USA<\/a> — Bush 51, Kerry 46
\nRasmussen<\/a> — Bush 51, Kerry 47
\nAmerican Research Group<\/a> — Kerry 47, Bush 45
\nMason-Dixon<\/a> — Bush 48, Kerry 44, Nader 2
\nQuinnipiac<\/a> — Bush 51, Kerry 44
\nStrategic Vision<\/a> — Bush 49, Kerry 44
\nComment<\/i>: What a shocker; Florida is still a toss-up. The only one of these polls that was done before the debate, by the way, was Rasmussen.<\/p>\n
\nRasmussen<\/a> — Kerry 52, Bush 41<\/p>\n
\nSurvey USA<\/a> — Bush 58, Kerry 39<\/p>\n
\nUniversity of Minnesota<\/a> — Kerry 47, Bush 46
\nSurvey USA<\/a> — Kerry 48, Bush 47
\nComment<\/i>: Very good news. After a couple of months with small but steady Bush leads, Kerry, in two post-debate polls, has regained the lead. It’s only one point, but at this point, I’ll take it.<\/p>\n
\nUniversity of Minnesota<\/a> — Kerry 47, Bush 46
\nComment<\/i>: The good news is, Kerry’s up. The bad news is this state shouldn’t be anywhere near competitive and SUSA’s data suggests Bush may get 1 electoral vote from Maine’s strange electoral system<\/a>.<\/p>\n
\nGonzales Research<\/a> — Kerry 52, Bush 42<\/p>\n
\nSurvey USA<\/a> — Kerry 52, Bush 42
\nComment<\/i>: I know there was a poll at some point last week that showed Bush closing the gap in Michigan, but this poll seems far more reliable.<\/p>\n
\nHart Research<\/a> — Kerry 50, Bush 43
\nComment<\/i>: It’s awfully nice to see Kerry get some distance here. A month ago, Minnesota was all tied up. It’s looking a lot better now.<\/p>\n
\nSurvey USA<\/a> — Bush 49, Kerry 47
\nRasmussen<\/a> — Bush 51, Kerry 45<\/p>\n
\nSurvey USA<\/a> — Bush 50, Kerry 46<\/p>\n
\nUniversity of New Hampshire<\/a> — Bush 50, Kerry 45
\nAmerican Research Group<\/a> — Kerry 47, Bush 47
\nComment<\/i>: The difference is, the ARG poll was done after the Miami debate and the UNH poll wasn’t.<\/p>\n
\nResearch 2000<\/a> — Kerry 50, Bush 42
\nSurvey USA<\/a> — Kerry 50, Bush 45
\nQuinnipiac<\/a> — Kerry 49, Bush 46
\nFairleigh Dickinson<\/a> — Kerry 49, Bush 41
\nComment<\/i>: The only one showing this really close is Quinnipiac — and it was the only one conducted before the Miami debate.<\/p>\n
\nAlbuquerque Journal<\/a> — Kerry 46, Bush 43
\nGallup<\/a> — Bush 50, Kerry 47, Nader 2
\nComment<\/i>: At least as far as the Albuquerque Journal poll is concerned, this is a six point turn-around in one month for Kerry, due in large part to his success in the first debate.<\/p>\n
\nSurvey USA<\/a> — Bush 52, Kerry 45<\/p>\n
\nRasmussen<\/a> — Bush 48, Kerry 47
\nColumbus Dispatch<\/a> — Bush 51, Kerry 44
\nSurvey USA <\/a> — Kerry 49, Bush 48
\nAmerican Research Group<\/a> — Kerry 48, Bush 47
\nComment<\/i>: Of these, the only two that were done after the Miami debate were SUSA and ARG — and those are the ones in which Kerry is leading.<\/p>\n
\nMason-Dixon<\/a> — Kerry 45, Bush 44
\nWest Chester University <\/a> — Kerry 50, Bush 43
\nSurvey USA<\/a> — Kerry 49, Bush 47
\nFranklin and Marshall<\/a> — Kerry 48, Bush 41
\nKeystone<\/a> — Kerry 49, Bush 43
\nAmerican Research Group<\/a> — Kerry 48, Bush 46
\nComment<\/i>: Six polls, six Kerry leads, six surveys done after last week’s debate.<\/p>\n
\nSurvey USA<\/a> — Bush 58, Kerry 39
\nComment<\/i>: All that stuff I said six months ago about Tennessee being more competitive this year? Yeah, never mind all that.<\/p>\n
\nSurvey USA<\/a> — Bush 58, Kerry 37<\/p>\n
\nSurvey USA<\/a> — Kerry 54, Bush 43
\nComment<\/i>: This was done after the debate and it shows a huge boost over the last SUSA poll. Kerry is not only getting stronger, but Dems statewide (governor and Senate races) are showing bigger leads over their GOP rivals.<\/p>\n
\nGallup<\/a> — Bush 49, Kerry 46, Nader 2
\nComment<\/i>: This may sound silly, but I consider this real progress. Recently, Bush’s lead has been at or near double digits. Kerry’s closing the gap.<\/p>\n