If you’re a Carpetbagger regular, you know the drill. If you’re new, welcome; I do this every Friday. It’s time for my round-up of statewide presidential polls released over the last seven days — a little something I call “Poll Day.” Also this week, we have the 11th installment of the Zogby Interactive\/Wall Street Journal survey. As always, because of concerns I have over its methodology, I’ve kept the data separate from the other polls.<\/p>\n
This week includes plenty of interesting updates. A few red states that were looking encouraging are now a little less so (Arizona, Colorado), a few blue states where Kerry is solidifying support (Maine, New Jersey, New Mexico), and all the usual suspects in which the outcome remains a giant question mark (Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin).<\/p>\n
As usual, my friend Bob at 2.004k.com<\/a> is an invaluable source for up-to-date polls. Particuarly as we get into the campaign’s final days, it’s a must-read site.<\/p>\n Arizona<\/b> (10 electoral votes) Arkansas<\/b> (6 electoral votes) California<\/b> (55 electoral votes) Florida<\/b> (27 electoral votes) Georgia<\/b> (15 electoral votes) Kentucky<\/b> (8 electoral votes) Louisiana<\/b> (9 electoral votes) Maine<\/b> (4 electoral votes) Michigan<\/b> (17 electoral votes) Minnesota<\/b> (10 electoral votes) Missouri<\/b> (11 electoral votes) Montana<\/b> (3 electoral votes) Nevada<\/b> (5 electoral votes) New Hampshire<\/b> (4 electoral votes) New Jersey<\/b> (15 electoral votes) New Mexico<\/b> (5 electoral votes) North Carolina<\/b> (15 electoral votes) North Dakota<\/b> (15 electoral votes) Ohio<\/b> (20 electoral votes) Oklahoma<\/b> (7 electoral votes) Oregon<\/b> (7 electoral votes) Pennsylvania<\/b> (21 electoral votes) South Dakota<\/b> (3 electoral votes) Tennessee<\/b> (11 electoral votes) Washington<\/b> (11 electoral votes) West Virginia<\/b> (5 electoral votes) Wisconsin<\/b> (10 electoral votes)
\nSurveyUSA<\/a> — Bush 54, Kerry 43
\nArizona Republic<\/a> — Bush 47, Kerry 40
\nComment<\/i>: The Arizona Republic poll showed Bush with a 10-point lead two weeks ago, now it’s seven. It will probably be tough to close that gap by Nov. 2, but it’s encouraging to see Bush’s lead shrinking.<\/p>\n
\nSurveyUSA<\/a> — Bush 51, Kerry 46
\nComment<\/i>: It’s worth noting that the Kerry campaign, despite rumors to the contrary, has not given up on Arkansas. Just this week, KE04 announced a new ad featuring Gen. Wesley Clark and former transportation secretary and Arkansan Rodney Slater. Stay tuned.<\/p>\n
\nSurveyUSA<\/a> — Kerry 53, Bush 43
\nLA Times<\/a> — Kerry 57, Bush 39
\nComment<\/i>: We can only hope Bush spends the last two days of the campaign here again.
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\nColorado<\/b> (9 electoral votes)
\nRocky Mountain News<\/a> — Bush 47, Kerry 42
\nGallup<\/a> — Bush 51, Kerry 45
\nMason-Dixon<\/a> — Bush 49, Kerry 43
\nCiruli Associates<\/a> — Bush 48, Kerry 42
\nComment<\/i>: It’s encouraging that most of these polls show Bush below the 50% threshold, but it was a lot closer a few weeks ago.<\/p>\n
\nInsider Advantage<\/a> — Kerry 48, Bush 44
\nWashington Post<\/a> — Kerry 47, Bush 47
\nSurvey USA<\/a> — Kerry 50, Bush 49
\nMason-Dixon<\/a> — Bush 48, Kerry 45
\nUniversity of North Florida<\/a> — Kerry 45.3, Bush 43.8
\nQuinnipiac<\/a> — Bush 45, Kerry 43
\nComment<\/i>: Two-thirds of these polls show Kerry up, so that, at a minimum, is encouraging.<\/p>\n
\nAtlanta Journal-Constitution<\/a> — Bush 51, Kerry 41<\/p>\n
\nSurveyUSA<\/a> — Bush 59, Kerry 37<\/p>\n
\nMarketing Research Institute<\/a> — Bush 51, Kerry 36
\nSouthern Media and Opinion Research<\/a> — Bush 50, Kerry 32<\/p>\n
\nSurveyUSA<\/a> — Kerry 51, Bush 45
\nComment<\/i>: Kerry’s biggest lead in Maine in weeks. The state is coming to its senses just in the nick of time.<\/p>\n
\nSurveyUSA<\/a> — Kerry 51, Bush 44<\/p>\n
\nRasmussen<\/a> — Kerry 47, Bush 47
\nMason-Dixon<\/a> — Bush 47, Kerry 45<\/p>\n
\nSurveyUSA<\/a> — Bush 51, Kerry 45
\nMason-Dixon<\/a> — Bush 49, Kerry 44<\/p>\n
\nMason-Dixon<\/a> — Bush 57, Kerry 36
\nComment<\/i>: Montana’s a lovely state, but there’s no reason a pollster should pay good money to conduct this survey.<\/p>\n
\nSurveyUSA<\/a> — Bush 52, Kerry 45<\/p>\n
\nResearch 2000<\/a> — Kerry 49, Bush 45
\nSuffolk University<\/a> — Kerry 46, Bush 41
\nAmerican Research Group<\/a> — Bush 47, Kerry 46
\nMason-Dixon<\/a> — Bush 48, Kerry 48
\nComment<\/i>: Kerry’s spending some of his limited remaining time in the Granite State, which could help give him a little added boost.<\/p>\n
\nFairleigh Dickinson<\/a> — Kerry 44, Bush 42
\nQuinnipiac<\/a> — Kerry 49, Bush 45
\nStar-Ledger<\/a> — Kerry 51, Bush 38
\nSurveyUSA<\/a> — Kerry 51, Bush 43
\nComment<\/i>: Ed Gellespie said this week<\/a> that the polls “are pretty consistent — dead even or the president’s up.” But for those of us in the “reality-based community,” there hasn’t been a single poll showing Bush up in NJ this year.<\/p>\n
\nAmerican Research Group<\/a> — Kerry 48, Bush 46<\/p>\n
\nSurveyUSA<\/a> — Bush 50, Kerry 47
\nComment<\/i>: Three points? Must be an outlier, but a guy can dream, right?<\/p>\n
\nMinnesota State<\/a> — Bush 55, Kerry 35
\nComment<\/i>: See Montana<\/p>\n
\nUniversity of Cincinnati<\/a> — Kerry 48, Bush 46
\nABC News<\/a> — Kerry 50, Bush 47
\nRasmussen Reports<\/a> — Kerry 47, Bush 47
\nFoxNews<\/a> — Bush 47, Kerry 45
\nSurveyUSA<\/a> — Kerry 49, Bush 47
\nMason-Dixon<\/a> — Bush 46, Kerry 45
\nComment<\/i>: Notice something that all of these polls have in common? Bush can’t crack 47% support. I’m feeling better and better about Ohio all the time.<\/p>\n
\nWilson Research Strategies<\/a> — Bush 61, Kerry 31
\nComment<\/i>: See Montana and North Dakota<\/p>\n
\nResearch 2000<\/a> — Kerry 50, Bush 44
\nRiley Research<\/a> — Bush 48, Kerry 43
\nGallup<\/a> — Kerry 52, Bush 45<\/p>\n
\nSurveyUSA<\/a> — Kerry 51, Bush 45
\nQuinnipiac<\/a> — Kerry 47, Bush 41
\nComment<\/i>: If the “Big 3” are PA, OH, and FL, I’m thinking Kerry is already a third of the way there.<\/p>\n
\nRasmussen<\/a> — Bush 52, Kerry 42
\nComment<\/i>: Just to be clear, Kerry won’t even try to compete in South Dakota. But, let’s not forget that Bush won here four years ago by 23 points (60-37). If his lead is now down to just 10, it suggests Bush’s support really is faltering. It’s also great news for Daschle.<\/p>\n
\nMTSU<\/a> — Bush 50, Kerry 39
\nSurveyUSA<\/a> — Bush 60, Kerry 38<\/p>\n
\nSurveyUSA<\/a> — Kerry 52, Bush 45<\/p>\n
\nGlobal Strategy Group<\/a> — Bush 47, Kerry 45, Nader 2
\nMason-Dixon<\/a> — Bush 49, Kerry 44, Nader 1
\nComment<\/i>: KE04 has all but written off West Virginia, but the polls are looking awfully close.<\/p>\n
\nRasmussen<\/a> — Kerry 48, Bush 47
\nSt. Norbert College<\/a> — Kerry 48, Bush 43
\nAmerican Research Group<\/a> — Kerry 47, Bush 47
\nUniversity of Minnesota<\/a> — Bush 48, Kerry 47
\nGallup<\/a> — Bush 51, Kerry 43
\nComment<\/i>: It’s the first time in a long while that there have been a bunch of Wisconsin polls out in one week and the ones with Kerry up outnumber the ones with Bush up.<\/p>\n