{"id":4298,"date":"2005-05-26T10:30:58","date_gmt":"2005-05-26T14:30:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com\/archives\/4298.html"},"modified":"2005-05-26T10:30:58","modified_gmt":"2005-05-26T14:30:58","slug":"back-to-basics-in-2006","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/back-to-basics-in-2006\/","title":{"rendered":"‘Back to basics’ in 2006"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last month, in one of those a-little-too-candid moments, Harry Reid told reporters<\/a> that “it would take a miracle” for Dems to pick up five senate seats in 2006 and get back to a 50-50 split.<\/p>\n

In an interesting interview with the Christian Science Monitor, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, skipped over Reid’s “miracle” comment and insisted Dems have a plan<\/a> to reverse the Senate trend of the last two cycles.<\/p>\n

Schumer thinks the battle over judicial nominations will linger in voters’ minds and help Democrats in the 2006 elections. “The whiff of extremism, the whiff of abuse of power, the whiff of being out of touch with what people want is in the air. I think this fight where the moderates had to rescue the Senate and the agenda from the Republican leadership and these extreme groups helps us.”<\/p>\n

But the basic thrust for Democrats in the run-up to 2006 will not be on judicial nominations, Schumer said. “We are not going to be off on some ideological escapade – rather meat and potatoes: healthcare, education, jobs.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

I think that sounds about right in terms of strategy, but I can’t help but notice that the map isn’t looking very friendly right now.
\n
\nIn 2006, there will be 33 Senate seats up for election. Right off the bat, Dems are at a disadvantage — we have 18 seats to defend, Republicans have 15.<\/p>\n

As is often the case with incumbents, most of 33 races won’t be particularly competitive and well-known and well-financed incumbents, from both parties, will have little trouble winning re-election. If Dems are going to retake the majority, they’d need a net gain of six seats, five to return to a power-sharing arrangement (ala the first eight months of 2001).<\/p>\n

So, how do we get there? Here are the Republicans up next year:<\/p>\n

* Arizona’s Jon Kyl — Kyl is looking pretty secure, with top-tier Dems staying away from the race<\/p>\n

* Indiana’s Richard Lugar — One of the most popular figures in the state, Lugar in unlikely to face a tough time<\/p>\n

* Maine’s Olympia Snowe — She’s the most popular politician in Maine and Dems want no part of this race<\/p>\n

* Mississippi’s Trent Lott — State Rep. Erik Fleming (D) is planning to mount a campaign against Lott, but this is Mississippi, so it’ll be an uphill climb<\/p>\n

* Missouri’s Jim Talent — Ample evidence, including recent polling data, suggests Talent is vulnerable, and Dems are lining up to take him on<\/p>\n

* Montana’s Conrad Burns — Burns barely won in 2000 and Dems believe he can be beaten next year<\/p>\n

* Nevada’s John Ensign — Dems are focusing on state offices in 2006 and will likely give Ensign a pass<\/p>\n

* Ohio’s Mike DeWine — With Rep. Sherrod Brown in the race, Dems are cautiously optimistic about taking on DeWine<\/p>\n

* Pennsylvania’s Rick Santorum — The #1 priority for Dems in 2006<\/p>\n

* Rhode Island’s Linc Chafee — Chafee has to worry about a possible primary challenge and<\/i> a strong Dem opponent<\/p>\n

* Tennessee’s Bill Frist — Frist is retiring, making this one of the few open seats, but top-tier Republicans, including Ed Bryant, Bob Corker, and Van Hilleary, are hoping to keep the seat in GOP hands<\/p>\n

* Texas’s Kay Bailey Hutchison — Hutchison will probably run for governor, making this another open seat contest; Rep. Henry Bonilla (R) will run if Hutchison doesn’t seek re-election<\/p>\n

* Utah’s Orrin Hatch — Safe seat<\/p>\n

* Virginia’s George Allen — Unless Mark Warner gets into the race, another safe seat<\/p>\n

* Wyoming’s Craig Thomas — Safe seat<\/p>\n

Dems start off the cycle with 45 seats and 18 to defend. I don’t know if I’d use the word “miracle,” and I like Schumer’s “back to basics” approach to the cycle, but gaining five seats will take a hell of a lot of work.<\/p>\n

Update<\/em>: I’ve added the list of Dem seats up in 2006 in comments.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Last month, in one of those a-little-too-candid moments, Harry Reid told reporters that “it would take a miracle” for Dems to pick up five senate seats in 2006 and get back to a 50-50 split. In an interesting interview with the Christian Science Monitor, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[617],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4298","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4298","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4298"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4298\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4298"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4298"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4298"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}