I’m fond of posting updates on Bush’s approval ratings when they’re slipping badly, so it’s only fair to note that the president has seen a slight up-tick in his support over the last few weeks. Perhaps more importantly, it’s worth asking why. (That’s only half-way rhetorical; I’m hoping someone can explain it to me.)<\/p>\n
Gallup<\/a> has Bush at 42%, up from 37% a month ago. The AP has the exact same numbers. The New York Times<\/a> shows Bush at 40%, up from 35% in early-November. When one poll shows an increase, it’s easier to dismiss it as an outlier. When all of them show a similar trend, it’s probably a reflection of a subtle change.<\/p>\n To be sure, Bush is still remarkably unpopular. Gallup noted that Bush’s support “remains lower than that of any president in his second term since World War II except Richard Nixon.” I know we’re talking about the “we create our own reality<\/a>” gang, but a 42% approval rating is hard to spin as a good<\/i> sign. For that matter, the latest Gallup numbers also showed that 43% of the nation said they “strongly disapprove” of Bush’s job performance — which is an all-time high for this president.<\/p>\n Some of the president’s supporters think<\/a> it’s the series of speeches on Iraq that’s helping to turn things around.<\/p>\n Ed Goeas, a Republican pollster, credits the speeches with helping to nudge up Bush’s overall approval ratings and his numbers on handling Iraq in several recent polls.<\/p>\n “The president needs to continue to reaffirm why we’re in Iraq and what this battle is all about, and make sure the Democrats are not the only ones being heard out there,” Goeas said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n This may have something to do with the up-tick, but I’m not convinced. The public still strongly disapproves of Bush’s handling of the war — according to the New York Times poll, a majority of the country believes the administration “intentionally misled the public when its officials made the case for war” and wants the United States to set some timetable for troop withdrawal, regardless of the president’s arguments to the contrary.<\/p>\n So, what’s the cause of the minor bump? I think Susan Huru, who participated in the NYT poll, offers a hint<\/a>. “Things are not that bad,” Susan Huru, a 47-year-old independent from Wasilla, Alaska, said in a follow-up interview after the poll was completed. “I can still afford things except for maybe gas.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Obviously, this is just one person’s perspective, but I think her comments may be illustrative. To borrow a White House phrase<\/a>, Bush may very well be benefiting from the soft bigotry of low expectations.<\/p>\n It seems to me that the country has lowered its standards to the extent that the absence of horrible news is enough to give Bush a few extra points in the polls. For many voters, the fact that no Bush administration officials have been arrested in the past few weeks<\/i> may be a sign that ethics at the White House have improved. The war hasn’t gotten noticeably worse<\/i>. The president hasn’t badly flubbed a response to a massive natural disaster lately<\/i>.<\/p>\n When inescapable headlines are reminding the nation that Bush’s presidency is an embarrassing mess, Bush’s approval ratings naturally go into a freefall. But maybe a couple of weeks with no obvious new crises is enough to help turn things around for the president. At least a little.<\/p>\n
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