{"id":8703,"date":"2006-10-09T14:03:50","date_gmt":"2006-10-09T18:03:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com\/archives\/8703.html"},"modified":"2006-10-09T14:03:50","modified_gmt":"2006-10-09T18:03:50","slug":"north-koreas-dud","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/north-koreas-dud\/","title":{"rendered":"North Korea’s dud?"},"content":{"rendered":"

I’m not even close to an expert on such matters, and I certainly won’t pretend to be, but Knobboy pointed out<\/a> this analysis<\/a> of the North Korean nuclear test from Defense Tech, which is always a reliable and credible source on these issues.<\/p>\n

In short, Defense Tech’s Jeffrey Lewis said North Korea’s bomb was “probably a dud.”<\/p>\n

They’ve published lat\/long (41.294 N, 129.134 E) and Mb estimates (4.2) for the North Korean test.<\/p>\n

There is lots of data floating around: The CTBTO called it 4.0; The South Koreans report 3.58-3.7.<\/p>\n

You’re thinking, 3.6, 4.2, in that neighborhood. Seismic scales, like the Richter, are logarithmic, so that neighborhood can be pretty big.<\/p>\n

But even at 4.2, the test was probably a dud…. No one has ever<\/i> dudded their first test of a simple fission device. North Korean nuclear scientists are now officially the worst ever.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Everything about the [tag]North Korea[\/tag] announcement seems a little off. Given what N.K. claims to have tested, the Richter magnitude isn’t at all where it should be. Maybe they detonated a very small bomb; maybe they detonated a very big bomb poorly; or maybe something else.<\/p>\n

If the test was a dud, it’s a lucky break for the U.S. and a stunning setback for Kim Jung Il. As Slate’s Fred Kaplan noted<\/a> after the last unsuccessful North Korea test, “It’s like a bank robber who gets everyone’s attention by firing his gun at the ceiling — and a little flag with the word ‘Bang!’ pops out of the barrel. The only effect is that he’s no longer taken seriously.”
\n
\nAlso, following up on a question from comments<\/a> about the [tag]Democrats[\/tag]’ response to the developments, I thought I’d pass along a copy of the official Democratic talking points, what struck me as compelling. In their entirety:<\/p>\n

President Bush\u2019s North Korean policy is one of failure. Over the past six years, Kim Jong Il has withdrawn from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, increased his plutonium stockpiles and continued testing missiles that he exports to the Middle East and Africa. And now, it seems, North Korea has tested its first nuclear weapon. The Bush Administration\u2019s policy towards Pyongyang has made America less safe. It\u2019s time for a new direction.<\/em><\/p>\n

Under President [tag]Bush[\/tag]\u2019s Watch, North Korea Has Dramatically Increased Its Weapons Material Stockpile.<\/b> When President Bush took office in 2000, Pyongyang had enough fissile material to manufacture 1-2 nuclear weapons. Today, experts believe that North Korea possesses material sufficient to build between 4 and 13 nuclear weapons and, unless an agreement is reached to stop the country\u2019s program, it is estimated that Pyongyang will have enough material to manufacture between 8 and 17 nuclear weapons by 2008. [Institute for Science and International Security<\/i>, 6\/26\/06<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Under Bush\u2019s Watch, North Korea Withdrew from the Non Proliferation Treaty.<\/b> Between December 2002 and January 2003, North Korea ejected IAEA inspectors and announced its withdrawal from the Non Proliferation Treaty. [Arms Control Today<\/i>, July\/August 2006<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Under Bush\u2019s Watch, North Korea Tested Numerous [tag]Missiles[\/tag].<\/b> \u201cThe Taepodong-2 was the third of at least six missiles launched beginning at 2:33 p.m. EDT and ending four hours later. They included two short-range Scud missiles and three medium-range Nodongs, another type of Scud, Hadley said. It was the first time in recent memory that North Korea had launched so many missiles at once.\u201d [Washington Post<\/i>, 7\/5\/06]<\/p>\n

Failures of Bush [tag]Diplomacy[\/tag] Have Led to the Current Impasse.<\/b> \u201cThe Bush administration has tried to ignore North Korea, then, reluctantly, to engage it, and then to squeeze its bankers in a manner intended to make the country’s leader, Kim Jong Il, personally feel the pinch. Yet none of these steps in the past six years has worked. So now, after a barrage of missile launchings by North Korea, President Bush and his national security advisers found themselves on Wednesday facing what one close aide described as an array of \u2018familiar bad choices.\u2019\u201d [New York Times<\/i>, 7\/6\/06]<\/p>\n

While Other Presidents Had Difficulties with North Korea, Bush\u2019s Policies Have Made the Problem Worse.<\/b> \u201cDealing with North Korea has frustrated every president since Truman. But it has proved particularly vexing for Mr. Bush because his administration has engaged in a six-year internal argument about whether to negotiate with the country or try to plot its collapse — it has sought to do both, simultaneously — and because America’s partners in dealing with North Korea each have differing interests in North Korea’s future.\u201d [New York Times<\/i>, 6\/6\/06]<\/p>\n

Under Bush\u2019s Watch North Korea Has Continued to Violate Basic Human Rights.<\/b> \u201cThousands of North Koreans languish in forced labor camps, where torture is endemic. Many die in prison because of mistreatment, malnutrition, and lack of medical care. The government of North Korea has consistently refused to allow U.N. human rights rapporteurs and other independent and impartial organizations to investigate the situation inside North Korea, despite two successive resolutions of the U.N. Commission on Human Rights urging that it do so.\u201d [Human Rights Watch, Letter to United Nations Security Council<\/i>, 9\/16\/06<\/a>]<\/p>\n

Senate Democrats Have Consistently Worked to Fix the Failed Bush Administration Policy on North Korea<\/p>\n

September 2006.<\/strong> The House and Senate pass final legislation in the Defense Authorization bill cosponsored by Senators Reid, Biden, and Levin establishing a North Korea Policy Coordinator and mandating a policy review and new reports to Congress on the nuclear and missile threat from North Korea. Awaits presidential action.<\/p>\n

June 22, 2006.<\/strong> The Senate passes legislation in the Defense Authorization bill cosponsored by Senators Reid, Biden, and Levin establishing a North Korea Policy Coordinator and mandating a policy review and new reports to Congress on the nuclear and missile threat from North Korea.<\/p>\n

June 16, 2006.<\/strong> Democratic Senators Levin and Clinton send a letter to President Bush urging him to \u201cdevelop a single, coordinated Presidential strategy to diplomatically address North Korea\u2019s nuclear and missile threat.\u201d The senators also urged the President to appoint a senior Presidential envoy to implement the strategy and to keep Congress and the American people fully informed of North Korea\u2019s activities.<\/p>\n

February 3, 2006.<\/strong> Senate Democrats Reid, Levin, Biden and Rockefeller send a letter to the President noting that Bush failed to mention North Korea in his State of the Union address and saying that the President\u2019s policy \u201cstill has not resulted in an elimination, freeze, or even a slowing of North Korea\u2019s nuclear and ballistic missile activities.\u201d The letter also calls for a declassified version of the most recent NIE on North Korea\u2019s nuclear and missile programs so Congress can have accurate information to engage in a full and free debate about policy options. [The Administration subsequently denied the request for declassification of the NIE.]<\/p>\n

July 3, 2005.<\/strong> Senate Democrats Levin and Clinton publish an editorial in the Washington Post calling on the Bush administration to inject seriousness and urgency into efforts to negotiate with North Korea. The authors argued that the Administration needs to take control of the talks, stalled for over a year, by spelling out a package to the North Koreans that addresses their fundamental need for economic assistance, sending a senior American official to meet with Kim Jong Il, and agreeing with our allies on a timetable for diplomacy \u2013 deadlines for when the next meeting will be held and for a final solution.<\/p>\n

July 2005.<\/strong> Senate Democrats commission and publish a study by the National Security Advisory Group to review the Bush Administration\u2019s policy on North Korea, Iran, loose nukes, and the nonproliferation treaty. Their report, \u201cWorst Weapons in Worst Hands: US Inaction on the Nuclear Terror Threat Since 9\/11, and a Path of Action,\u201d drew upon the analysis of the Group\u2019s chairman, former Defense Secretary Bill Perry, and more than a dozen national security experts including former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, and former Assistant Secretaries of Defense Ash Carter, Graham Allison, and Michele Flournoy.<\/p>\n

June 23, 2005.<\/strong> Congressional Democrats Reid, Levin, Biden and Rockefeller send a letter to the President noting that \u201cwith respect to the challenge of North Korea, American national security has degraded over the past year,\u201d and noting that \u201cour current path leads to one of two bad outcomes: either the United States essentially will acquiesce to the North\u2019s serial production of nuclear weapons, or we will find ourselves in a military confrontation with a desperate, nuclear-armed regime.\u201d The Senators urged the President to appoint a special envoy to coordinate Korea policy and represent the US in direct dialogue with North Korea and at the Six Party Talks, and urged that priorities be set to end North Korea\u2019s production of plutonium, remove all fissile material from the country, and dismantle its nuclear weapons related facilities. [The Administration eventually responded, promising progress in the coming weeks and months.]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I’m not even close to an expert on such matters, and I certainly won’t pretend to be, but Knobboy pointed out this analysis of the North Korean nuclear test from Defense Tech, which is always a reliable and credible source on these issues. In short, Defense Tech’s Jeffrey Lewis said North Korea’s bomb was “probably […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[617],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8703","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8703","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8703"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8703\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8703"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8703"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8703"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}