{"id":8971,"date":"2006-11-06T11:07:13","date_gmt":"2006-11-06T16:07:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com\/archives\/8971.html"},"modified":"2006-11-06T11:07:13","modified_gmt":"2006-11-06T16:07:13","slug":"this-is-making-me-nervous","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/this-is-making-me-nervous\/","title":{"rendered":"‘This is making me nervous’"},"content":{"rendered":"

DCCC Chairman Rahm Emanuel is keenly aware of some very recent national polls showing the Dems’ generic-ballot lead shrinking. He told the NYT<\/a>, “It’s inevitable that there would be some tightening in the end.” Emanuel added, however, “This is making me nervous.”<\/p>\n

Indeed, the Pew Research Center for People and the Press released a poll<\/a> yesterday that showed the Dems’ national lead over Republicans has been cut in half in the campaign’s waning days. Two weeks ago, Pew found Democrats with an 11-point generic-ballot lead (50-39). Yesterday’s poll showed the margin down to just four (47-43).<\/p>\n

Understandably, this is causing some, shall we say, consternation<\/i><\/a> among some of us who are hoping for big Dem gains tomorrow. Is it panic time? I kind of doubt it. Consider the five national polls conducted and released over the last six days:<\/p>\n

* CNN (11\/3 – 11-5) — Dems 58%, GOP 38%<\/p>\n

* Newsweek (11\/2 – 11-3) — Dems 54%, GOP 38%<\/p>\n

* Time (11\/1 – 11-3) — Dems 55%, GOP 40%<\/p>\n

* Post\/ABC (11\/1 – 11-4) — Dems 51%, GOP 45%<\/p>\n

* Pew Research Center (11\/1 – 11-4) — Dems 47%, GOP 43%<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

If you’re willing to go back slightly further, as Charles Franklin did<\/a>, and include the NYT\/CBS poll released on 11\/1, that’s another poll that looks encouraging: Dems 52%, GOP 33%.<\/p>\n

Taken together, the national landscape looks slightly less favorable than it did, say, two weeks ago, but hardly grounds for panic.
\n
\nHere’s Charles Franklin’s explanation<\/a>:<\/p>\n

[T]he current estimate of the Democratic lead based on the trend of all recent survey remains at roughly +11. While down from the peak of early October, check my post<\/a> and comparison graphic<\/a> from earlier this week. The final Democratic advantage has not been over 10 points (or even close) in the last 12 years.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Maybe it’s a natural part of Republicans rejoining the fray, maybe the GOP’s smear tactics are paying off; and\/or maybe the obsessive coverage of John Kerry’s botched joke stunted the Dems’ momentum in the week before the elections. Whatever the cause, when you create an average of all the results, Dems’ lead has dropped a little, but the party is still poised to have a pretty good day tomorrow.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, maybe a tightening race can be a motivating development. If voters anxious for a new direction assume Dems are poised to cruise tomorrow, they may be less inclined to show up at the polls. A tightening race is a wake-up call: if you want a better government, you’re going to have to go out tomorrow and make it happen.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

DCCC Chairman Rahm Emanuel is keenly aware of some very recent national polls showing the Dems’ generic-ballot lead shrinking. He told the NYT, “It’s inevitable that there would be some tightening in the end.” Emanuel added, however, “This is making me nervous.” Indeed, the Pew Research Center for People and the Press released a poll […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[617],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8971","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8971","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8971"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8971\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8971"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8971"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevebenen.com\/thecarpetbaggerreport\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8971"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}