It’s one of the more enduring political myths of recent years: if conservatives can get an anti-gay marriage initiative on the ballot in a state, Republicans will win. The argument gained serious traction in 2004 when anti-gay ballot measures appeared to help Bush win a second term, particularly in states like Ohio.<\/p>\n
At first glance, the idea seems to have merit. Conservative voters, some of whom may be inclined to stay home on Election Day, feel compelled to go to the polls out of a personality animosity against gay people. While they’re behind the curtain voting against same-sex relationships, they go ahead and vote for Republicans, who share their distaste for marriage equality.<\/p>\n
It’s this approach that led many states to rush anti-gay initiatives onto statewide ballots this year, hoping to give GOP candidates one last break in an otherwise anti-GOP year. As Ben Adler noted<\/a>, however, if the goal was to help Republican candidates win, the anti-gay measures failed miserably.<\/p>\n States that passed anti-gay marriage initiatives showed no more tendency to swing Republican than the nation as a whole. Blue-leaning swing state Wisconsin and red-leaning swing state Colorado both passed anti-gay marriage initiatives, but the Democrats swept the races for senator and governor and won a close key House race in each. In red Virginia, incumbent Senator George Allen was narrowly knocked off despite a successful anti-gay marriage initiative on the ballot there. Meanwhile, in Arizona, where Democrats had hoped to take out Senator Jon Kyl, the party fell short by nine points while a gay marriage ban was defeated<\/i> at the polls.<\/p>\n What gives?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n