Q2 ends today, Dean sitting pretty
The first three months of 2003 were a mixed bag when it came to fundraising for the nine Dems seeking the party’s presidential nomination. Edwards shocked the field with a first place finish (with $7.4 mil), followed closely by Kerry (with $7 mil). Dean, meanwhile, wasn’t expected to raise much more than $1 mil, so the fact that he raised $2.6 was considered a great success, despite the fact that it was only about a third of what Edwards raised.
Right or wrong, candidate fundraising is a determining factor in creating “top-tier” candidates vs. also-rans. The numbers mean a great deal to reporters, and almost as much to potential donors. Since much of the Dem field actually entered the race during the first quarter, plus the fact that there was a war going on, many candidates were more or less given a pass when it came to sub-par fundraising as of March. The second quarter (Q2), however, would be far more significant for everyone. No excuses would be accepted.
I can tell you right now that the topic of conversation at every campaign office and every political reporter’s desk today is Dean’s unbelievable fundraising triumph. Dean’s success is an earthquake that no one knows how to react to.
As recently as two weeks ago, Dean was looking to collect about $4 million in Q2. It would have been considered a strong quarter, to be sure. When Dean’s rivals started spreading rumors that the good doctor would get up to $6 mil, the campaign scoffed. Joe Trippi, Dean’s campaign manager, said $6 mil is the “in-my-dreams” number.
Funny thing kept happening. Dean’s campaign kept setting fundraising goals, meeting the goal, then setting new ones. First they wanted to raise $5 mil. Then they did, so they said the new goal was $5.5. That came and went, so the new goal was $6 mil. They passed that late last week. The new goal is to raise $7 mil by midnight tonight (the end of Q2).
Dean sent out an email alert to his supporters that went out early this morning. “As I sit here writing this, I find myself searching for the right words, the right way to explain what has happened, how it happened…”
These numbers defy explanation. Dean’s fans shrugged off the debacle on Meet the Press and just kept contributing more money.
I know the other campaigns are adept players when it comes to expectations game, but it now appears that Dean will, believe it or not, be the top fundraising candidate for Q2, which is truly remarkable. No one expected this, especially not at the Dean HQ, and no one knows how to interpret it.
In case there was any doubt before, this places Dean in the upper-echelon of Dem candidates with Kerry, Gephardt, and maybe Edwards.
When news of all the candidates’ Q2 reports start making the news, pay particular attention to how candidates like Kerry and Edwards change the focus of the debate. They’ll both do pretty well this quarter, though not as well as Dean, so they’ll emphasize cumulative totals for the year.
In other words, Kerry and Edwards will say it doesn’t matter how much a candidate raised in just the second quarter, it matters how much he or she raised so far this year. Dean will have likely raised about $9 mil in 2003 (Q1 plus Q2), but Kerry and Edwards will each have well over $10 mil and perhaps be closer to $12 mil. Something to look out for.
The other thing to recognize is the affect on the rest of the field. Lieberman and Graham, for example, if they have weak Q2 reports, will look like they’re fading fast. Soon the questions will no longer be about whether they can win, the questions will be about how long they’ll stay in the race. These kinds of doubts, which are obviously unfair sixth months before the first primary, nevertheless become self-fulfilling.
Ultimately, a lot of this analysis is subject to significant change once Q2 officially ends today, since some campaigns may have more than they’re admitting. One thing is for sure, though, Dean’s numbers are already the talk of the town.