Howard Dean’s big week

As many of you know, Carpetbagger has more than a passing interest in Gov. Howard Dean’s presidential campaign. This is a big week for Dean for America, and even though it’s early spring and there’s a war going on, this very week will be of critical importance for Dean in the coming months.

First, today is the deadline for first quarter contributions. Party insiders, donors and reporters covering the campaign place enormous importance on these figures as a sign of the candidates’ prowess for generating the kind of support they’ll need for the general election. (Though the deadline is today, papers don’t need to be filed with the FEC for another two weeks. Nevertheless, most campaigns — including Dean’s — will be filing electronically so the figures will be out soon.)

As recently as last week, the campaign was about $80,000 short of its goals for the quarter. Fundraising appeals went out highlighting this fact, hoping to get some last-week contributions in to help reach the self-imposed target.

The problem for Dean is there’s a big difference between reaching an arbitrarily chosen goal and reaching figures on par with competitors. Dean for America shot for $1.5 million in quarter one. I have a hunch he’ll get it and claim a tremendous success.

As I see it, Dean made a mistake even playing into this debate in the first place. He’s going to be all smiles with $1.5, but it won’t be particularly impressive when his rivals — especially Gephardt, Edwards, Lieberman, and Kerry — disclose they’ve each raised over twice as much money as Dean, with Kerry probably leading the pack at around $5 million. Dean would have been a lot better off minimizing the significance of the “FEC primary” and lowering expectations. He chose a different path; we’ll see how that works out.

Internally, Dean for America is about to lose its most valuable staff member. As was announced quietly yesterday, Rick Ridder is leaving the campaign in a few weeks and Joe Trippi will be taking his pace. This is a significant loss for the campaign. Ridder, who worked for Clinton in ’92 and Bradley in ’00, was traveling extensively for Dean, establishing the governor’s credentials with activists, lawmakers, and party loyalists nationwide. Trippi has been managing the day-to-day activities in Burlington. With Ridder gone, Trippi will be traveling for the campaign. The problem is twofold: Trippi isn’t as good as Ridder and no one with real experience is in line to take over for Trippi at HQ.

(On a silly note, I personally wonder if Trippi’s candidates are cursed. He worked for Ted Kennedy in ’80, Mondale in ’84, Hart and then Gephardt in ’88. Three of these four failed to get the Democratic nomination, and the other — Mondale — went on to lose in one of the biggest landslide defeats in U.S. history. Does this bode well for the good doctor? Does anyone have Wesley Clark’s phone number to pass along to me?)

Just one more Dean update. National Review has a well-researched piece on the governor in this week’s issue. Not only is it unflattering, but I guarantee it’s being circulated by all of Kerry’s and Edwards’ staffers.

The crux of the piece mentions several items you’ve heard from me before. He’s “not very popular with the other contenders from his party right now,” he keeps accusing rivals of inconsistencies while offering inconsistencies of his own, and he may do well in Iowa but he’s got very little hope for winning in South Carolina.

Among the inconsistencies the article plays up are Dean’s remarks about Bush and the war. First, Dean has said he would “tone down his criticism” of the president during the war. Then he said he wouldn’t criticize Bush “in a partisan way,” though he didn’t explain what that meant. Following that, he went full circle, going back to his pre-war message.

The article also found a damaging quote from two months ago, when Dean told the LA Times that “he would support military action, even without U.N. authorization,” if the administration found evidence that Iraq hadn’t destroyed bio and chem weapons. The administration found the evidence, and Colin Powell laid it out for the U.N., but Dean changed his mind without explanation, and said U.N. approval was a prerequisite to war.

National Journal quoted one Democratic Party activist who doesn’t understand why Dean has been so “incoherent,” adding that he sees Dean “talking out of both sides of his mouth.”

I wish I could say I disagree, but I don’t.