I’ve noticed that several of the Dem presidential campaigns have drawn on the results from the 1992 primaries to show that Kerry hasn’t locked up this year’s nomination. It’s not a bad approach, but it suffers from one very serious flaw.
Those hoping to see Kerry’s campaign falter have accurately noted that Bill Clinton fared poorly in the early races in his ’92 run, and as such, any of the remaining serious candidates can do as Clinton did — recover from early defeats and win the nomination.
This leaves out a crucial detail. Consider the first four contests in 1992’s Dem race:
* Iowa — With Iowa’s own Tom Harkin running, candidates largely ignored the state. Clinton finished fourth, behind “uncommitted,” while Harkin won easily.
* New Hampshire — After dropping to single digits in the wake of a couple of scandals, Clinton finished second, about eight points behind Paul Tsongas.
* Maine — Jerry Brown pulled off an upset victory, narrowly beating Tsongas by less than one percent. Clinton finished fourth, again trailing “uncommitted.”
* South Dakota — Fellow Plains Stater Bob Kerrey (Neb.) cruised to a big victory. Clinton finished a distant third.
Looking back, it’s easy to say, “See, Clinton didn’t win until later. Therefore, 2004 is still competitive.” But that misses a key point: in ’92, after the first four races, it was still a wide-open race for the nomination. This year, not so much.
In the first four contests of ’92, four different candidates won primaries/caucuses. There was no frontrunner because no one had broken through. Whether you like Kerry or not, 2004 is entirely different. He won Iowa and New Hampshire, then won five of seven on Feb. 3, and is now favored to win the next three — Michigan, Washington, and Maine.
It’s accurate to say that Clinton broke through later in the game, but he wasn’t facing a competitor who had won 10 of the first 12 contests.
Kerry’s nomination is not yet a lock, and strange things definitely happen, but as a historical matter, no one has ever lost a nominating fight in either party after building this kind of support in the early round of primaries/caucuses.
I’m not saying the other candidates should just give up — I actually am hoping for the opposite — but I am saying people should stop using ’92 as a map on how Kerry might lose.