Let’s hope North Korea attacks on a sunny day

In July, the Washington Examiner ran an item that said the U.S. has a system in place that “is poised to shoot down anything launched from [tag]North Korea[/tag] that threatens the American homeland or the critical interests of our regional allies like Japan and Australia.” This development, the piece argued, has led long-time skeptics to become “noticeably absent,” as if our defenses have finally reached a point that proves the merit behind the missile-defense idea.

Around the same time, I saw one far-right blog argue that the Pentagon’s decision to turn on the [tag]missile defense[/tag] system is proof that “liberals were on the wrong side of history.” The post went on to say, “If not for Ronald Reagan, and his vision and leadership, we would now be at the mercy of that lunatic in North Korea.”

As it turns out, while the lunatic was poised to start testing his missiles, our miraculous, life-saving defense system was having some trouble. Apparently, it was raining.

Torrential rains wiped out a quarter of the U.S.’ intercontinental ballistic missile interceptors in Ft. Greely, Alaska last summer — right when North Korea was preparing to carry out an advanced missile launch, according to documents obtained by the Project On Government Oversight.

“The flooding occurred during a three-week period between the end of June and early July 2006,” POGO notes, in a statement. “The flooding damaged 25% of the U.S. interceptor missiles’ launch capability. These silos house the interceptor missiles that would be used to attempt to intercept a missile aimed at the United States. No interceptors were in the flooded silos.”

Noah Shachtman asked, “What exactly are we getting, for the $9 billion a year we’re paying for missile defense? And why can’t it take a little (ok, a whole bunch of) rain?”

Conservative bravado about already being prepared to “shoot down anything launched from [tag]North Korea[/tag]” has always been misplaced.

Indeed, as recently as August, as Kim Jung Il was poised to show off his missiles, U.S. officials were still testing whether the defense system was capable of spotting a target, not hitting it.

This, coupled by the story about the rain, is a reminder of just how little this program has actually produced.

* The Pentagon’s Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system hasn’t successfully intercepted a missile since October of 2002…. And the last two times it tried to hit an oncoming missile, the interceptor didn’t even leave the ground. Things have gotten so bad that the Missile Defense Agency’s independent review team concluded last year that more tests may only undermine the GMD’s value as a deterrent.”

* A recent Pentagon Inspector General report found that security vulnerabilities are so serious “that the agency and its contractor, Boeing, may not be able to prevent misuse of the system.”

* “A little-noticed study by the Government Accountability Office issued in March found that program officials were so concerned with potential flaws in the first nine interceptors now in operation that they considered taking them out of their silos and returning them to their manufacturer for ‘disassembly and remanufacture.'”

Just to be clear, I’d be thrilled if we had an effective defense system that could shoot down threatening missiles. But we don’t, and the one we’re working on may never offer a realistic defense. That doesn’t mean critics of the system are “on the wrong side of history”; it just means we’re the ones paying attention to whether the darn thing actually works.

They should call it the New Orleans Defense Shield.

  • Bubububut that never happened while I played Missile Command!

    Damn you Atari for making expectations so damned high!

  • (cue Dr. Strangelove music) We’ll meet again Don’t know where Don’t know when But I know we’ll meet again some sunny day.

  • Or maybe the Optimistic Defense Shield after Bush’s optimistic rug. The Katrina Too-Little-Too-Late Defense Shield. The Ultra-Thin Panty Defense Shield for Light Missle Days?

  • And of course, even if the damn thing worked, we would still be vulnerable to a nuke-in-a-box, rain or shine.

    And as we all know, inspecting all cargo containers is too expensive, whereas building a cartoon-inspired faith-based missile shield is a far better use of billions of dollars, especially if those black dollars happen to funnel through Republican-supporting corporations.

    Just sayin.

  • This system DOES work–for the contractor(s). That’s the most important part.

    Whether or not it can actually target and destroy enemy ICBMs and other missiles doesn’t matter. Not one damn bit.

  • Focality is right. This program is NOT a failure. It has been wildly successful for all the military/industrial corporations that have been feeding off of it since the REAL “Dear Leader” (Reagan, not Kim Jong Il) got it going.

    For over twenty years, it’s been the closest thing to a permanent welfare system for the military/industrialists, at least until Bush and Cheney came up with the idea of Permanent War.

    So what if it doesn’t work? Just keep the wingnut pundits braying about how successful it is, and maybe someday it’ll be able to hit the side of a barn.

    This program will outlive us all.

  • And the only time an interceptor ever hit its target was when the target had a radar ID pod on it – sort of like a big flashing light in the darkness. I’m sure the NKs will equip all their missiles with such items.

    You know, all the people I have met in counterproliferation (which I’ve been searching out for the past year as research for a screenplay on the topic) believe that the nuke will most likely come from Pakistan, that it will be shipped across China in a cargo container and sent to Long Beach on a container ship, where it will join 100,000 other (uninspected) containers sitting there. A “Hiroshima-sized” bomb would take out the LA basin, which has a geography very similar to the original Hiroshima – basin surrounded by mountains to contain the blast and magnify it.

    Nobody thinks anyone will fire a missile, since even it it isn’t destroyed everyone knows where it came from, and then the perpetrator gets several 20-megaton H-bombs dropped on them.

  • Putting two and two together here:

    ***The Washington Examiner*** ((and)) ***The Pentagon’s Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system hasn’t successfully intercepted a missile since October of 2002….***

    This is like the White star Line boasting of the Titanic being an “unsinkable ship”—four-and-a-half years after “the iceberg incident….”

  • I know a fellow who bounced back and forth between Alaska and ********* Atoll (just in case the Bushies are reading) as this project was “developed.” He did this for nearly 25 years. Twenty five years! With the pace of technological development in the world, from computer chips to imaging systems, from launch methodology to satellite IS, one would think the problem would have been solved. But, we still can’t hit anything. If that doesn’t tell you how serious the military was about this project—well.
    Cleaver’s (#8) scenario is far more simple and rational, but I can’t imagine why any enemy with that capability would confine an attack to one port.

  • What I find particularly ironic about this latest fiasco is that, had we not spent the last 7 years denying the climate change and did something about it instead, the torrential rains which wiped out those silos might not have happened…

  • Anybody here remember the DIVAD and Roland programs from the 80s?

    Or the MBT-70 from a decade earlier?

    Or the XM2000 Crusader and RAH-66?

    These were all Army programs that their supporters literally sceamed were essential for the very survival of the nation, yet each was correctly cancelled when they turned into huge money pits.

    How this turd of a program is still going, when you have units getting deployed overseas underequipped and undertrained, is beyond comprehension.

    Talk about enboldening the enemy.

    Also, how is it that our nuclear deterrence force was enough to keep the Soviets at bay, but now that force is somehow rendered impotent against glorified Scuds that make Andy Griffith’s spaceship on the show Salvage 1 look state of the art?

  • So if there were no interceptor missiles in the flooded silos, how did that reduce our launch capacity by 25%?

  • Sorry, CB, but I’m afraid that your facts are a bit stale…the thinkprogress article you cite is dated July 5, 2006. There was a successful test of the system on Sept. 1, 2006.

    http://www.boeing.com/ids/news/2006/q3/060901a_nr.html

    Also, Wikipedia has a summary of all the tests and their success/failure status.

    What happened with the silos, was that they were offline for maintenance, and someone left the silo doors open overnight, and they flooded. At any given time, there will be some number of silos offline for maintenance…that is normal. You have to do that to make sure your interceptors are in good shape. So making it sound like we were crippled because of the rain is misleading. It would be like if you owned 4 cars, and you left the windows on one of them down overnight when it rained.

    People criticize the missile defense program for overselling its capabilities. DUH!!! I mean, REALLY!!! You are upset because we are telling North Korea we will shoot down their nukes, when we might not be able to??? Why does that surprise anyone???? That is just common sense! I would like my government to be honest on just about everything, but if lying/exaggerating our missile defense capabilities deters people from launching nukes at us, then I’m all for that. That lie is something that could actually improve the quality of my life by making sure my life isn’t so radioactive.

    Look at it from Kim Jong Il’s point of view…do you want to be the guy who launches a nuke at the US…only to have it shot down? So if we actually have a 1% chance of defending a nuke attack, and our government wants to pretend it is a 90% chance, that is fine by me.

  • “Look at it from Kim Jong Il’s point of view…do you want to be the guy who launches a nuke at the US…only to have it shot down? ”

    Even if the NK’s missile doesn’t get shot down, I don’t think Kim wants to be the guy who launches a nuke at the US when the US can track back to where it came from, and then he has 100 very accurate and very loud nuclear warheads coming down on his ass.

    Deterrence worked pretty damn good at keeping the “Evil Empire” at bay for all those decades, any reason why it won’t work this time?

  • The whole anti-nuke missile defense system is the victim of not just wishful thinking, but of guys like Randall “Duke” Cunnigham getting personally involved with the procurement process.

  • It supprises me that for some reason the right always assume a foreign leader has a desire to rule a country made of glass. What does anyone gain from attacking a country with over 3000 nukes. The deterent worked not because it provided a better way of killing men in the field, pretty crap at that, dig a hole and live. It worked because it destroyed the reason to be in power in the first place, no one wants to rule a carpark.

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