Is September going to be a turning point or not?

May 12, 2007

I noted in a couple of posts this week that I believe September will likely be the point at which even congressional Republicans give up on the president’s war policy. Petraeus is scheduled to deliver a progress report on Iraq and everyone seems pretty certain that’s little hope for good news. But will the GOP follow through or not?

The WaPo reported on Tuesday that that September is “looking increasingly like a decisive deadline.” Sen. Gordon Smith (R-Ore.) said, “Many of my Republican colleagues have been promised they will get a straight story on the surge by September. I won’t be the only Republican, or one of two Republicans, demanding a change in our disposition of troops in Iraq at that point. That is very clear to me.”

Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) made similar comments. Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) concluded, “There is a sense that by September, you’ve got to see real action on the part of Iraqis. I think everybody knows that, I really do.”

Well, maybe not everybody.

National Journal’s “Congressional Insiders Poll” (.pdf) surveyed 124 lawmakers, asking a simple question: “If the political and military situation in Iraq has not significantly improved by September, will Congress enact legislation to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq?” As Nico noted, among Republicans, the results weren’t close.

Fully 67 percent of congressional Republicans say that even if conditions in Iraq have not improved significantly by September, Congress will still not pass legislation withdrawing U.S. forces out of Iraq. They give reasons such as, “Democrats will try, but fail,” and “No complete withdrawal can occur without Al Qaeda setting up a safe haven.”

This sounds discouraging, but let’s unwrap the numbers a bit, because there’s more than one way to interpret the results.

First, keep in mind that we’re talking about a fairly limited sample size. National Journal’s “Congressional Insiders Poll” includes a total of 65 Republicans, less than a fourth of the total number of GOP lawmakers. Of those 65, only 36 responded to the poll question. And of those 36, 24 said Congress still won’t pass any kind of dramatic legislation by the fall. It’s hard to say with any certainty that those 24 accurately reflect the perspective of over 250 Republican lawmakers on the Hill.

Second, if the poll is an accurate representation of Republicans’ perspective, a third of GOP lawmakers do expect withdrawal legislation to pass in September. That’s not necessarily bad news — if a third of the Republicans in the House and Senate abandon the president’s Iraq policy and vote with the Dems, that’s a veto-proof majority.

The problem here is that the poll question itself wasn’t helpful enough: “If the political and military situation in Iraq has not significantly improved by September, will Congress enact legislation to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq?” Well, Congress has already enacted legislation with a withdrawal timeline, with minimal GOP support, which garnered a veto.

A better question would be, “If the political and military situation in Iraq has not significantly improved by September, will congressional Republicans give up on the White House war policy?” Or maybe, “If the political and military situation in Iraq has not significantly improved by September, will Congress have the votes to override a presidential veto on withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq?”

Call me naive, but I’m still inclined to think September is going to matter a lot, and may very well be the point at which the wheels fall off Republican unity. Stay tuned.

In the meantime, how many American service people and Iraqis will die or be maimed?

September’s a long time and many casualties away from May 12th.

  • We have passed the turning point – several years ago. If the Dems wait until September, it means they were never really serious in the first place.

  • September will matter because by then the debate will in all likelihood have shifted to, “what does withdrawal look like?” And that’s an entirely new can of worms.

    The last I knew, the most probable scenario was a force reduction with some sort of strategic redeployment to bases in the region but outside of Iraq. At first glance, this might make sense but in practice it could actually be worse than what we have now.

    Imagine an increase in Iraqi violence after US troops redeploy. Americans, having just withdrawn from Iraq, are going to be extremely hesitant to re-engage. So, the situation worsens until we do engage (if that’s not an option, remaining in the region at all makes no sense at all). Not only are we re-entering a more chaotic situation than we left, we’re doing so with a smaller force.

    So, it seems to me that September may be the time that we reach the tipping point for abandoning the course, but establishing a new course of redeployment or withdrawal will become the next issue and every bit as divisive.

    By invading Iraq, Bush opened a Pandora’s Box the likes of which the US has never seen.

  • I don’t buy it. Bush will keep the war profiteering going till he leaves office and he knows there is nothing the congress is going to do about it. WE KNOW NOW WHAT WE WILL KNOW THEN.
    Everything this Administration is saying they have already said. Troops are dying daily and by Sept. how many more will be dead who don’t have to die. Al Queda will be in the same position then as they are in now. Their parliament meets 3 days a week and usually can’t get a quorum so very little gets accomplished. Doesn’t sound like a Parliament desperate to establish itself before Sept. to me. Petraes has already said the surge must last at least till next spring to decide if we have made progress. So at least another 365 dead soldiers or do we measure by $/day profit for every soldier and everyday Bush keeps it going for KBR and others. Republicans close their eyes to dead troops and just use their numbers for political reasons. If they gave a damn about the troops they wouldn’t continue doing this to them. All this rhetoric about Sept is merely an attempt to calm the voters. Come Sept. there will just be more bitching and it will be louder. What Congress fails to realize is that if they don’t stop Bush’s escalation now then by Sept we will be in a war with Iran. Why Congress does not see the strong possibility of this is beyond me. Try to remember the last four Septembers and called by any other name it’s always been the ‘splurge’, the same policy just more of it and next Sept. will be no different. Know the faces of the troops you are willing to sacrifice between now and then because you won’t be able to play the If I only knew then what I know now because ..
    WE ALREADY KNOW NOW WHAT WE WILL KNOW THEN.

  • “By invading Iraq, Bush opened a Pandora’s Box the likes of which the US has never seen.” — beep52

    Absolutely! For Bush and Republican congresspersons, the political aspect has become worse as result of Bush’s mouth. By his immature statements — “bring ’em on!” “Stay the course” “They’ll follow us here” etc. he has made the inevitable humiliation even worse. But the suckers who are persuaded by all his “retreat and surrender” rubbish will keep the dying going.

    Like beep52, I see Bush’s disaster as much farther reaching than the immediate Iraq chaos. Allies, money, credibility, national unity, civil liberties, separation of powers, competent government, a strong military, the threats of al queda, Pakistan, Iran and others — these are problems that simply did not exist to such a degree prior September 12, 2001. We need a Lincoln. But, we have the worst president in our history.

  • One more rant:

    September WILL be pivotal. Bush has made a big deal about that date, and he’ll be called to task.

    My other comment is a question. When will this country ever have a leader? A leader who will not devote more effort to please his/her party’s base (and pandering to everyone else) than taking action on growing challenges this country is facing. Will we ever have a leader with the courage and imagination to declare a “Moon program” to do something like find an alternative to petro-based energy? I fear that time has passed.

  • “Many of my Republican colleagues have been promised….”

    Why the blasted blazes aren’t more people picking up on this? Dems have the majority—and the MINORITY is getting special briefings? The army’s been placed under the whimsical folly of a Bu$hylvanian quisling (“Partisan” Petraeus) who’ll do no more than shore up the administration line—the “bottom” line, that is….

  • So General Petraeus, who’s in charge of this, is expected to present an objective evaluation of his own program in September? And that’s what Congress will use to evaluate whether the “surge” is working? And this is why we voted in a Dem congress, to put up with bullshit like this? Edwards is right, we should just send the same bill back to Bush over and over, or maybe even tighten it up a little more each time.

    Damn, these people infuriate me!

  • I may be wrong, but I don’t think Petraeus is a flunkie. He began his assignment with some solid caveats. As a commander, he’ll do everything he can to succeed. But, based on his exemplary and realistic performance during and after the invasion, I think he’s an honorable and courageous man. It may destroy his career, but if Iraq is still in hopeless shape in September, I don’t think he’s going to suggest risking more lives. Petraeus knows how angry the active-duty officer corps is. Charged with giving a report in September, his may be the voice of an army that in another country at another time would be in open revolt.

  • I don’t see GOP Congresscritters changing their minds in September. Here’s why:

    1) Despite the fact that about 3/5 of Americans are ready to get the hell out of Dodge, the 30-35% of Americans who still support this war are all in the GOP base.

    2) GOP Congresscritters voting against the war are likely to be challenged by ‘true’ conservatives in the primaries next year.

    3) Nobody really wants to deal with a primary challenge. Especially when your own party’s base won’t be happy with you.

    So:

    4) GOP Congresscritters won’t start voting against the war until the filing deadlines for Congressional primaries pass.

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