A month ago, it looked like the results from Iowa and New Hampshire would be pretty straightforward and easy to predict. Dean had a double-digit lead over Gephardt in Iowa, with Kerry and Edwards far behind. At the same time, Dean had a ridiculously large lead over Kerry in New Hampshire, with Clark and Lieberman far behind. With the results a foregone conclusion, attention started to drift to Feb. 3 states like Arizona and South Carolina.
But as Lee Corso likes to say, “Not so fast, my friend.” Everything we thought we knew for sure is no longer quite so obvious.
In Iowa, the latest Zogby tracking poll shows what has become a race where any of the top four have a realistic shot.
Dean — 24% (but dropping over the last week)
Gephardt — 21% (stable over the last week)
Kerry — 21% (up significantly over the last week)
Edwards — 15% (up slightly over the last week)
All of a sudden, no one’s really sure who’s going to win. Dean picked up the Harkin endorsement on Friday, which I thought may give him the boost he needed to win, but Dean appears to be dropping anyway, perhaps due to widespread reports of his earlier criticism of the Iowa caucus system.
And you’ve got to hand it to Kerry. Just when it seemed like he would be a distant third in Iowa, his campaign really dug in and found some success. There were plenty of reports over the last week that Kerry events in Iowa were suddenly overflowing with people. Based on these poll results, it seems like Kerry’s new-found energy in Iowa is more than just campaign hype.
Meanwhile, in New Hampshire, Dean’s enormous lead, which seemed completely insurmountable just a couple of weeks ago, is suddenly a lot less daunting.
The AP is reporting that the Dean campaign’s internal polls show his lead over Clark in the Granite State slipping to single digits. This is consistent with a new Boston Herald poll, which also shows Clark gaining on Dean:
Dean — 29%
Clark — 20%
Kerry — 15%
Lieberman — 7%
Edwards — 7%
Better yet, the new ARG tracking poll shows the New Hampshire race closer than ever, with Dean reaching a new low, Clark reaching a new high, and Kerry starting to rebound a bit.
Dean — 32% (down from 36% over the weekend)
Clark — 22% (up from 19% over the weekend)
Kerry — 13% (up from 10% over the weekend)
ARG’s analysis explains that the race is even closer than these results reflect. “The daily trends show Wesley Clark closing in on Howard Dean. There was a 13 percentage-point gap between Clark and Dean on January 11, an 8 percentage-point gap on January 12, and a 4 percentage-point gap on January 13. If the trend continues, and even if Dean holds his core support, Clark could tie and move in front of Dean in New Hampshire before the results from Iowa are known.”
Un…be…lievable.
So, what’s Howard Dean doing now that his once-overwhelming leads in Iowa and New Hampshire are vanishing? Dean’s doing what he does best — lashing out wildly against the other Democrats.
Remember all that talk we heard from Dean a couple of weeks ago about the need to end internecine warfare? About the danger of negative attacks? About his desire to see the DNC step in to make the candidates play nice? About his labeling any attempt at criticism “desperate attacks”? Yeah, Dean’s forgotten about all that.
Insisting that he’s “tired of being a pincushion,” the frontrunner is back to his negative ways, labeling his congressional rivals “Washington Democrats,” blaming the media for his problems, railing against the “establishment,” saying Clark isn’t a “real” Democrat, and broadcasting new ads that tout his position on the war. (If this all sounds familiar, it’s because Dean has been doing the exact same thing, pretty much every day since September.)
“It goes to a pattern I have,” Dean told reporters on Monday. “I let ’em pass for a while, and then I really try to hammer” his rivals.
Maybe it’s his personality, but maybe it’s something else. Frontrunners never feel the need to go on the attack because there’s never any point to it — if a guy is in first place, there’s no reason to go after the folks in second and third place. It’s an all-risk, no-gain strategy.
At this point, however, Dean seems to realize that he’s in a bit of trouble. If he loses in Iowa, the story will be that the one-time favorite has slipped. If he loses in New Hampshire, the perception (and the probable reality) will be that his campaign is in freefall.
Keep in mind, Dean’s latest efforts to attack his rivals may work and his leads may be restored. His negative campaigning never hurt him in the summer or fall, as voters seemed to appreciate Dean’s fiery side. It’s still very possible, if not likely, that Dean will weather this unpleasantness and come out ahead.
Or maybe people are getting a little tired of Dean’s style and his latest efforts at negative campaigning will backfire.
I guess we’ll start to know for sure in about five days.