Edwards raises ‘electability’

I appreciate the fact that John Edwards sees a need to get a little more aggressive to narrow the gap, but I’m not sure if this is the best way to do it.

Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards Sunday warned Iowa voters about what he perceives as the perils of nominating a candidate who down-ticket Democrats in some parts of the nation may decline to appear with in their own campaign events.

Speaking in Carroll, Edwards made the observation after saying there are “three of us who are most likely to be the Democratic nominee.”

“It’s not just a question of who you like,” Edwards said. “It’s not just a question of whose vision you are impressed with. It’s also a question of who is most likely to win the general election. It’s a pretty simple thing. Who will be a stronger candidate in the general election here in the State of Iowa? Who can go to other parts of the country when we have swing candidates running for the Congress and the Senate? Is the candidate going to have to say, ‘Don’t come here. Down come here and campaign with me. I can’t win if you campaign with me.'”

He added later, “I think it’s just a reality that I can campaign anyplace in America.”

I’m fairly sympathetic to the notion that primary and caucus voters should consider electability as part of a broader criterion for evaluating candidates. There’s obviously little value in a party nominating a candidate who is all but certain to lose a general election.

I’m also inclined to agree with Edwards’ notion that the Democratic nominee should be able to campaign nearly everywhere. There will be plenty of Dems in competitive House and Senate races in “red” parts of the country who may need a boost from the top of the ticket. If the nominee is persona non grata, that undermines the party generally.

And yet, I’m still not sure about Edwards’ tactics here.

First, Dems believes they had to vote with electability in mind in 2004. That, as I recall, didn’t work out particularly well.

Second, what makes Edwards so sure that he’d be able to compete in areas that, say, Barack Obama couldn’t? It’s certainly not a regional thing — I can think of plenty of southern Dems who wanted to campaign alongside Obama in ’06.

Third, we’ve seen plenty of hypothetical general-election match-ups in national polls. Edwards does fairly well, but his leads over potential GOP nominees is modest, and in some instances, he fares worse against McCain and Giuliani than Clinton and Obama do.

And fourth, what makes Edwards so sure he’s so much more electable than anyone else? If 2004 is any guide, his track record isn’t exactly exemplary.

This isn’t to knock Edwards directly. His point is certainly worth considering, and I think Edwards certainly has a lot of general-election appeal. But at this point in the race, I have to think he’d be better off making his case without hammering the electability meme too much.

Acceptable everywhere sounds dismally bland and uncontentious. Blank slates are risky.

  • Was he refering to Obama? I thought he meant Clinton. So many people actively HATE her. Somehow all of the slick from Slick Willie left him and stuck to her.

    But yes, I agree, selecting someone for electability bombed big time in 2004. At least none of the Dem frontrunners are ditherers.

  • If I were Edwards campaign manager, I’d be stressing how he is the most progressive of the 3 main contenders. I’d talk about DLC as Republican Lite.

    Electibility made Kerry the candidate in 04, and yes he did prolly win the general election it wasn’t by enough of a landslide to overcome Karl Rove’s “math”. The press convinced the public that Dean wasn’t electable. I’m still fence sitting and I need to see more fighting spirit from any of the top 3 before they can count on my primary vote.

  • Wow. Edwards has white skin and a penis! I guess he’s the most electable, huh?

    Remember- “Dated Dean, Married Kerry- Stuck with Bush.

    Screw “electability.” Just vote your conscience.

  • Edwards is a little gaffe-tastic as compared to Hillary and Obama. It reflects poorly on his abilities for the office, too. I’m sorry to knock Edwards’ supporters, but I think this one just ended any interest I had in him.

  • I mean, maybe gaffe-tastic is a little harsh- there are a lot of Republicans that one sticks better too- but I think Edwards just proved he edges too much in that direction.

  • I’m not so sure the Democratic electorate was wrong in 2004 on the electability issue. Yes, Kerry ended up losing, but is there any good reason to believe Howard Dean or John Edwards would have done better? Whoever the nominee ended up being, the Republican machine would have spent the next 6 months slandering him viciously. Kerry was Swift-boated. Dean would have been attacked relentlessly as a “crazy” leftist. Edwards would have been attacked as a pretty-boy light-weight without the experience to be a war president. Both of these smears would have taken their toll.

    It’s always hard to speculate about what might have happened, but I’m not at all convinced that the Democrats chose the wrong guy in 2004. Kerry came pretty close to winning, and I suspect that he probably came closer than Dean or Edwards would have. At the very least, I think the case that the Democrats chose the wrong nominee hasn’t been made convincingly.

  • I see this as a jab at Clinton not Obama, and, to me, it seems a valid point.

    Clinton stirs strong passions on both sides, but probably has more negatives than positives. Her unfavorability ratings (50%) outweigh her favorability ones (46%) and most people’s opinions on her have been set in stone for a decade and a half now.

    Moreover, no one would energize and revive the Republican rank-and-file like her. The GOP scaremongering about her is largely bullshit, of course, but it’s still real in the minds of most voters. Republicans who might sit out a race between Rudy McRomney and Edwards or Obama will come out in droves to pull a lever against evil old “Hitlery” Clinton.

    Edwards seems to be pointing to this, and noting that Hillary Clinton couldn’t campaign effectively or have coattails in much of the South, the Midwest and pockets of rural America, while Edwards or Obama could. Sounds right to me.

  • I still want Gore to run in 2008. Anonymous Liberal is right – Kerry probably was the best choice at the time. Dems were still perceived as soft on defense at that time. Who would have guessed that a real war hero would be smeared as a coward so thoroughly? The Dems in 2004 were a bit too much like the Repubs in 2008. But the Dems in 2008 need to stop playing so safe – speaking primarily of Obama, Edwards and Richardson. It’s what killed Kerry. And as much as I miss Bill Clinton, I just can’t get behind a hawk like Hillary. She’s my very last choice after I hold my nose and pretend to only see the color of the party.

  • I doubt that Edwards would be the best candidate for the Democrats. I’m positive that Hillary would be the worst.

    If the election came down to Hillary vs the Antichrist, Republicans would get up out of their sickbeds to vote for the Antichrist rather than let Hillary get elected. Republicans have been hating on the Clintons for years and Hillary infuriates them more than Bill does.

    Right now, the Republicans are dispirited and not exactly in love with any of their Presidential candidates. It would be just like the Democrats to give them someone to rally against.

  • Wow, the first paragraph you quoted took me three tries to get straight. I guess an adverse affect of Election ’08 coverage is the lack of talented journalists willing to tackle non-stories this early. The big guns will go full-bore for crap stories come August. Hopefully.

  • It’s essential that we realize that – once again – the Grand Poobahs of the Democratic Party have their heads up their collective ass with their support of Hillary. I guess they miss all the sleepovers they got at the White House when Bill was in office.

    Hillary Clinton will be great as The Lioness of the Senate, if she stays there. Otherwise she’s going to be The Candidate Who Snatched National Defeat From The Jaws Of Victory.

    Much as I would really, really like to vote for a woman for President, and as knowledgeable as Hillary Clinton is, she is not the person to defeat the Republi-Klans next year. Not to mention that we’re close enough to an Oligarchy as it is without dividing 28 years of presidential power between two families. Constitutional Republics do not long remain Constitutional Republics when that happens.

  • Stephen, @13

    I found that replacing “who” (down-ticket Democrats) with “whom” made all the difference in ease of understanding the whole thing…

  • I’m also having trouble with two to three decades of Bushes and Clintons. This isn’t healthy. I’ll vote for Hillary if she’s the nominee, but it’s too much like resurrecting the Wars of the Roses. I’m still hoping for Gore, but would not be unhappy with Obama, Edwards, or Richardson.

  • “Electibility?”

    We’re supposed to turn away from individual conscience, and embrace “electibility?”

    Republicans adopted “electibility” to determine their candidate for 2000—and look what they blessed the Republic with. I really don’t care for a “donkey-ized version of George.”

    Besides, the way Edwards plays the “electibility card” comes across as an act of political desperation from someone who’s beginning to see the writing on the wall. He’s going for “show” (3rd place) in this horserace, and his career warning lights are beginning to spell out a phrase that no horse ever wants to hear:

    Glue Factory.

    So—remembering how he caved to the reich noise machine and tossed two qualified bloggers to the curb—I’m now supposed to forget the tail-tucking, yellow-dog-cowardice—and think about “electibility?”

    Tell ya what, JohnBoy—I’ll take my vote and stay home if you’re the nominee!

  • If we are to look at electability and geography, then we should go with someone who could take battleground states in the midwest and possibly open up some states in the west.

    Edwards couldn’t win his home state in 2004. Gore couldn’t win in the south in 2000. With his move to the left this year, Edwards won’t be any help in the south. It would be better to concentrate on states outside of the south where Democrats have a real chance.

  • Everybody above dodges the race issue. There’s a real issue in that latent racism exist in America. There are those who believe that Barack Obama and his rhetorical skills can prevail and those that believe that Obama will likely lose as the nominee when victory by a Democrat is imperative. I’m truly sorry; I can not accept another four years of Republican rule.

    Yes, I have no confidence in the American people who elected George W. Bush twice.

  • Poop.

    Kucinich is certainly electable!
    All he needs to do is wear little elf ears…
    And smile that cute little Dennis the Menace smile…

    Hey looky:

    America elected an chimp… why not an imp?

  • I wouldn’t necessarily pass Edwards up as a running-mate, though. But I’d also hope Obama would consider it if Hillary wins, or vice-versa. Obama would be the ideal heir-apparent if Hillary wins, and he would have plenty of opportunities to go around the country looking noble and presidential. Vice President is nothing to sneeze at.

  • Wow, first it comes out that Edwards is ‘uncomfortable’ with ‘those people’ (gays), and now he basically says Blacks, Hispanics and women are ‘unelectable’. Looks like you can take the boy out of the south, but you can’t….

  • Yeah, I think he’s scraping a little low here.

    I mean, women & blacks are the bread and butter of the Democratic party. That’s kind of like spitting on your prom date.

  • It’s not the right argument coming from a candidate.

    It could have been “okay” if he had put in a hint that what he was getting at was the Hillary hatred in the South. But by not doing that, we know he wants us to also consider racism.

    He wants us to vote for him, not because he’s the better candidate, but because other people are racist and we should accept this.

    I don’t think so.

  • Swan says:

    I wouldn’t necessarily pass Edwards up as a running-mate, though. But I’d also hope Obama would consider it if Hillary wins, or vice-versa. Obama would be the ideal heir-apparent if Hillary wins, and he would have plenty of opportunities to go around the country looking noble and presidential. Vice President is nothing to sneeze at.

    You’d think that VP would be a nice stepping stone to the presidency, but actually it’s not, unless your president gets whacked. Only one sitting VP was elected president in the last 170 years – Bush 41. Obama has expressed his skepticism about being someone else’s running mate, though I would imagine if you’re staring at the possibility of VP or nothing, then your feelings might change. But he is correct to be skeptical about his chances of ever getting to be president if he accepts the VP spot. Unless, of course, you think Hillary is unlikely to live through her term(s). 🙂

  • Not quite true, Addison– in 2000, the sitting VP was elected president. That the election was stolen is now beside the point. But in terms of VP’s getting elected president, it should be counted toward the total.

  • Hillary will probably get the nomination and would, I think, be an excellent president. Unfortunately, of the three top candidates, she is the only one with a significant chance of losing the general election. There is just no way to predict the extent and effect of the negativity factor.

    So Obama or Edwards should be the nominee. I favor Obama as an inspiring agent of change with potential for greatness. I doubt that the risk of racist voting is in any way comparable to the risk of negativity votes against Clinton.

    homer http://www.altara.blogspot.com

  • now he basically says Blacks, Hispanics and women are ‘unelectable’.

    Yeah, that’s exactly what he said. Sweet Jesus.

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