The lie isn’t working

July 16, 2007

We’ve talked at some length about the White House using demonstrably false rhetoric about al Qaeda in Iraq as part of a cynical and deceptive strategy to rally public support under false pretenses. Americans don’t support U.S. staying in the middle of a civil war, but maybe, the Bush gang hopes, Americans will support a war against al Qaeda.

The bad news is, it’s working; Americans are now confused about al Qaeda’s role in Iraq. The good news is, it doesn’t matter; Americans still oppose the president’s policy.

Greg Sargent highlighted a largely overlooked question from the latest Newsweek poll.

Right now, which of the following do you think is the biggest threat to achieving peace and stability in Iraq?

34% Al Qaeda in Iraq, 9% Sunni nationalists, 14% Shiite militias, 13% Same/All equal,
30% Don’t know

Now, at first blush, it’s worth noting that with this conflict in its fifth year, about a third of Americans aren’t sure who the enemy is, and another third are wrong about who the enemy is. That’s not exactly a good sign.

But in the context of the political debate, this might appear to be good news for the White House. The president has been arguing aggressively that those responsible for 9/11 are now the “main enemy” for the United States in Iraq. It’s false, he knows it’s false, but the White House won’t let reality get in the way of an argument.

The Newsweek poll suggests a plurality of the public is buying it. As Greg explained, the latest intelligence assessment shows that Sunni insurgents are blamed for 70% of attacks in Iraq, but this reality isn’t reaching the public; Bush’s rhetoric is.

But the same poll shows only half of the White House strategy has been effective.

Bush’s deception is working, inasmuch as Americans now perceive AQI as the principal problem in Iraq, but it’s also failing, inasmuch as this bogus claim isn’t shifting opinions on the broader Iraq policy.

* Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bush is handling the situation in Iraq?

68% disapprove, 27% approve, 5% don’t know

* Do you think President Bush’s “surge” plan increasing U.S. troops in Iraq has been a success or a failure?

64% failure, 22% success, 14% don’t know

The point of the White House’s lie is to rally support for the cause. People are hearing the lie, some are even believing the lie, but the purpose behind the lie is failing.

Now, at first blush, it’s worth noting that with this conflict in its fifth year, about a third of Americans aren’t sure who the enemy is, and another third are wrong about who the enemy is. That’s not exactly a good sign.

Or, egocentric Americans are correctly reflecting that the participants in sectarian violence are not “our” enemies, and pick the group which definitely is.

  • Why exactly is it our obligation to stop the Sunnis from insurging in Iraq when what they are fighting is pretty much a Shi’ia Theocracy like Iran?

    Who are our allies in Iraq, the Sunnis who attack us day and night, or the Shi’ia who only attack us at night?

    And if the Kurds are our allies, what does that mean to our NATO alliance with Turkey, which has more Kurds than Iraqi Kurdistan?

  • Bush has his deceitful rhetoric, we have our reality based terms, and we need to pin the term occupation upon this WH resident so he fully understands we don’t wish to continue his madness. -Kevo

  • Or, egocentric Americans are correctly reflecting that the participants in sectarian violence are not “our” enemies, and pick the group which definitely is.

    I think they can figure out what the words of the question mean:

    …which of the following do you think is the biggest threat to achieving peace and stability in Iraq?

  • I guess he hasn’t figured out yet that it matters less who is perpetrating the violence than it does that we were the catalyst for it, that Bush has been and continues to be incompetent in the management and conduct of the occupation, and intransigent in the face of the need to make changes. It could be munchkins on unicorns, or alien beings, for all the difference it makes – I am more afraid of the fact that they still believe if they could just find the right reason, we’d all thunk our heads and say, “of course!” than I am about whatever “real” threats we face from terrorists, because they have learned nothing – nothing – in the almost 6 years since the 9/11 attacks. Nothing. When the people who learn nothing from their experience and from their mistakes are the same people who have the ability to launch wars and occupations, and disappear and torture people, there’s a terribly huge chance that they will do something even more stupid, with even worse consequence.

    The thing that underpins most all of what this administration does is that they really don’t want to have to tell anyone what they’re doing or why, or who benefits or where the money is going. But since the pesky Congress – which is peskier than usual since it went into the hands of the opposition party – and the annoying American people, believe they are entitled to know, and entitled to answers, they have been insulting our intelligence for over 6 years by throwing out lame justifications and hoping we will bite. When they can, they have just refused to cooperate or be at all transparent.

    And until there is an unrelenting chorus of “bullshit” shouted at them whenever they open their mouths, or the ultimate calling of BS, which would be to impeach, it will continue, unabated and unchecked.

  • Gee. I wonder if repeatedly mentioning A.Q. reminds everyone that Osama bin Laden is still at large and US soldiers are dying for an effort that is not related to catching him.

    I’m not surprised that people are confused, neither am I surprised they don’t really care who is doing what in Iraq, they just want out. I’m certainly not surprised that BushBrat keeps screaming “Look! Al Qaida!” in an attempt to frighten us into submission.

    Add it to the long list of things the White House doesn’t get.

  • It is all part of the Global War On a Tactic or a Psychological State. We have to fight [someone] there, so we don’t have to fight [anyone] here.

    The who doesn’t matter. The only thing that matters is that 9/11 happened. But don’t investigate 9/11 to increase your understanding of the world in which we live, whatever you do — despite all of the foreign and domestic policy in response to 9/11. The important thing to remember is that 9/11 happened — even if it means that our military is broken, our treasury is bankrupted and our Constitutional Republic is destroyed.

    .

  • Using public opinion polls to justify positions or policies is a tricky and sometimes dangerous proposition. Aside from the potential problems arising out of survey and questionnaire design, the public often has an opinion that isn’t based in fact — as this post so clearly points out.

    How valuable is it to know that a majority of Americans want out of Iraq — but know so little that they don’t even know who we’re fighting? How can we use that data to support a withdrawal when not so long ago, a majority supported the invasion but also thought Iraq was involved in 9/11?

    What does it mean when Bush has a 68% disapproval rating? How often have we seen that number used to indicate a swing towards the left — when in fact that number contains some people who think he’s gone too far and others who think he hasn’t gone far enough.

    I’m not saying public opinion polling is useless, or that the public’s desire to get out of Iraq shouldn’t be taken seriously. I’m saying we need to be careful in how we interpret the polls and how we use the data. And when government seems to lag behind public opinion, we need to remember that one of the functions of representative democracy is to moderate swings in public opinion, opinions which can be fickle and misinformed.

  • beep52’s point is good. But the point I take away from this is that Bush’s credibility has eroded, and that can only help when he decides to attack Iran.

    I hope.

  • I beg to differ: The biggest threat to peace and stability in Iraq is George W. Bush, or, the US Military presence.

    Give every Iraqi who is currently working with us a green card and a plane ticket to NY. Protect them until they are safely in the air and then remove our troops with all of their weaponry. Contrary to the crap the politicians are feeding us it can be accomplishe in less than a month. Check out the logistics of Inchon, Chosin and Saigon.

  • Right now, which of the following do you think is the biggest threat to achieving peace and stability in Iraq?

    34% Al Qaeda in Iraq, 9% Sunni nationalists, 14% Shiite militias, 13% Same/All equal, 30% Don’t know

    Truth to tell, I’d have, probably, plumped for either “Don’t know” or “All equal”, myself. But that’s because the correct answer — Tweedle Dick and Tweedle Dumb — was not included in the list. That’s always the problem with multiple choice, rather than make your own answer questions.

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