I mentioned last week that the winner of Iowa does not always go on to win the nomination, in either party. It’s also true that the winner of New Hampshire often goes on to lose the race for their party’s nod. But candidates who win both have always excelled.
Throughout November and December, Howard Dean told reporters that it would be “hard to stop” him from winning the nomination if he won Iowa and New Hampshire. As a historical matter, that’s true. Unfortunately for Dean, he lost them both.
Only four candidates have won Iowa and New Hampshire in the same campaign cycle in competitive races:
1976 — Ford
1976 — Carter
1980 — Carter
1992 — Bush
2000 — Gore
In each of these instances, the candidate has gone on to win the party’s nomination, though in only one case — Carter in ’76 — the presidency.
(Series of relevant historical notes: Carter technically finished second in ’76, losing to “uncommitted,” though he finished first among the candidates running. Bush’s GOP challenger in ’92 was Pat Buchanan, so it’s a bit of a stretch to consider it a “competitive” race for the nomination. In three of these instances, incumbent presidents were facing primary challenges within their own party — Ford in ’76, Carter in ’80, Bush in ’92 — which made them very serious long shots)
Howard Dean’s campaign is reminding anyone who will listen that a second-place showing in New Hampshire is hardly a kiss of death. Many candidates, from both parties, have gone on to win their party’s nomination after a second place finish in the Granite State — Bush in 2000, Dole in 1996, Clinton in 1992, Mondale in 1984, and McGovern in 1972.
This might make Dean fans feel better, but the circumstances are a little different this year.
First, previous second-place finishers didn’t blow 30-point leads to finish in the top two. Most of these candidates were going up by the time of the New Hampshire primary, not down.
Second, none of the candidates who beat these eventual nominees had also won in Iowa.
Third, nearly all of these eventual nominees lost New Hampshire by a fairly small margin — all but Bush were within single digits of the primary winner. Dean, meanwhile, in addition to blowing a huge lead, lost by 13-percentage points.