As I’m sure all of you know by now, Joe Trippi, Howard Dean’s campaign manager, left the campaign yesterday, rather than accept a demotion.
Let’s get the obvious observations out of the way. Campaign in disarray after two embarrassing defeats? Check. Campaign paralyzed by confusion and indecision? Check. Panicky supporters? Check. Media drumbeat about Dean’s “free fall”? Check. Online observers, who were in awe of Dean a few months ago, now dismissing him as “vaporware”? Check.
I think it’s fair to say that today is the low-point of Howard Dean’s political career. I’m not saying he’s a goner, just that he’s not accustomed to this level of failure. Before the Iowa caucuses, the man had never lost a political race in his life. Now, he’s seen double-digit leads turn into double-digit defeats in the two states he was supposed to be strongest in. All is not well in Dean Land.
At least Dean still has all of that money in the bank, right? No. The campaign that appeared to have an unlimited money machine is suddenly facing financial troubles. The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that the Dean campaign has spent $35 million of the $40 million it raised in 2003. It’s gotten to the point that Dean had to ask his staff to defer their paychecks for two weeks until things pick up again.
If they pick up again.
Trippi is being replaced by Roy Neel, who, as the Dean campaign’s top staffer, has been given the title of CEO. I respect Neel and his background, but this was an odd choice. Neel is the quintessential Washington insider who has spent more time on K Street and Capitol Hill than anywhere else. Indeed, since serving as Al Gore’s chief of staff, Neel has been a lobbyist for the telecommunications industry.
In short, Neel is exactly the kind of establishment Democrat Howard Dean and his supporters have been railing against for the better part of a year. Dean allegedly wanted to run folks like Neel out of DC on a rail; now Dean not only wants his support, he wants Neel to get his campaign back on track.
Clark and Kerry also saw a sudden shift in campaign managers, but this happened months before a single vote was cast. While both were seen as a sign of serious trouble at the time, the timing of Trippi’s departure — in the midst of the primary season — makes the change considerably more dramatic.
I should note a tidbit that most appear to have missed — Neel will be the third Dean campaign chief in just 10 months. Dean started with Clinton-Gore veteran Rick Ridder. When Ridder left, Trippi stepped in. Now Trippi’s gone and Neel is in. I can think of successful presidential campaigns that have made changes at the top of the staff, but never three campaign managers in less than a year.
I have my issues with Trippi, but, at the risk of making this sound like a eulogy, he worked wonders with Dean’s campaign. Ridder had run Dean’s campaign in a traditional fashion — positioning Dean as a successful moderate governor with an excellent record on health care and education, and whose unorthodox positions on gun control and fiscal responsibility would make him appealing to a broad spectrum of voters.
Trippi threw the “traditional” out the window. Moderate governor was out, revolutionary leader was in. Issue-oriented campaign was out, movement-oriented campaign was in. This model never worked for me, but it certainly struck a chord with a lot of people.
Obviously, Trippi’s efforts to use online resources in conjunction with Dean’s campaign will be a lasting legacy. Remember The New Republic’s cover story from a couple of months ago? The headline read, “The Man Who Reinvented Campaigning: Joe Trippi and the Dean Internet Revolution.” In retrospect, this was almost embarrassing hyperbole, but Trippi deserves credit for harnessing the Internet in new and creative ways.
TNR’s Noam Scheiber, who wrote that Trippi profile, said yesterday, “I think it’s safe to say that the Dean campaign would consist of little more than a couple of aides searching for e-saver bargains if Joe Trippi hadn’t come along.”
I think that’s absolutely true. (To get a sense of Dean’s online presence before Trippi took over, consider my analysis from July.)
Trippi is reportedly considering retirement from political campaigns. Dean, meanwhile, has said he’d like to try and lure Trippi back to the campaign to work as a communications/online consultant. Somehow, I don’t see that happening.