U.S. troop casualties in Iraq declined slightly in July, dropping to 2006 levels for the month. There’s also some evidence that sectarian violence in Iraqi neighborhoods was vaguely less brutal in July than it was in previous months. Obviously, both of these trends are good news.
But let’s not forget the point of the current administration policy: U.S. forces are trying to provide stability necessary for political progress. In this sense, Iraq is getting worse, not better.
Iraq’s largest Sunni Arab political bloc announced its withdrawal from the government Wednesday, undermining efforts to seek reconciliation among the country’s rival factions, and three bombings in Baghdad killed at least 70 people.
In one attack, 50 people were killed and 60 wounded when a suicide attacker exploded a fuel truck near a gas station in western Baghdad. Another 17 died in a separate car bomb attack in central Baghdad. And in a mostly Christian section of the capital, a parked car bombing killed three people.
The U.S. military announced the deaths of four American soldiers, three of whom were killed by a sophisticated, armor-piercing bomb. Britain also announced the death of one of its soldiers, by a roadside bombing in Basra.
The White House on Wednesday downplayed the significance of the Accordance Front’s leaving the government. Press secretary Tony Snow said that while it is important for all the political blocs to participate, reconciliation efforts are ongoing. He noted that Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi and the minister of defense, both Sunnis, remain in place.
It’s vaguely reminiscent of “Mars Attacks,” when Jack Nicholson assures the nation that two out of three branches of government still exist, and “that ain’t bad.”
Maliki’s “national unity” coalition is falling apart, and there’s ample talk that the Prime Minister may even be forced from office, thanks in part to the efforts of his predecessor, Ibrahim al-Jaafari.
As Marc Lynch explained, the deterioration of Iraqi political progress helps highlight the obvious failure of the administration’s stated policy. (via Kevin Drum)
Nobody who follows Iraq really needs the recitation of failed political benchmarks, I suppose, but it’s worth stating it bluntly: The Bush administration argued that its new strategy should be judged by the political process, not at the military level, and by its own standards it has clearly failed. Switching the focus back to tactical military developments may allow administration defenders to put forward signs of ‘progress’ — however ephemeral, dubious, or beside the point — but serious people shouldn’t join in this shell game. The administration and its supporters sold the surge on the premise that it would pay its dividends at the level of national Iraqi politics. It hasn’t. The Sunnis have left the government, none of the political benchmarks have been met, and they won’t be since the Parliament has adjourned until September.
Similarly, CNN Baghdad Correspondent Michael Ware, who is on record opposing a U.S. withdrawal, explained:
“Yeah, sectarian violence is down, but let’s have a look at that,” said Ware. “More than two million people have fled this country. 50,000 are still fleeing every month, according to the United Nations. So there’s less people to be killed. And those who stay, increasingly are in ethnically-cleansed neighborhoods. They’ve been segregated.”
“There is still no sense of unity. And without America to act as the big baby sitter, this thing is not going to last.”
Ware also responded to Brookings Institution analysts Michael O’Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack’s recent New York Times op-ed offering a sunny appraisal of progress in Iraq, calling the report “very one dimensional.” “It doesn’t look at what’s been done to achieve this and what long term sustainability there is,” said Ware. “I mean, these guys unfortunately were only in the country for eight days.”
In order to achieve the small victories that O’Hanlon and Pollack cherry-picked for their column, America is actually undermining the Iraqi government, according to Ware. “What America needs to come clean about is that it’s achieving these successes by cutting deals, primarily, with its enemies,” he said.
“By achieving these successes, America is building Sunni militias,” said Ware. “Yes, they’re targeting al Qaeda, but these are also anti-government forces opposed to the very government that America created.”
There’s an apparent effort underway to move the goalposts (again) and claim that declining U.S. military casualties shows the success of the “surge.” An intellectually serious approach to the policy shows that’s not true.