McCain drops below Obama among Iowa Republicans

August 9, 2007

Less than a month ago, with his campaign in free-fall, John McCain’s presidential campaign circulated talking points to supporters, explaining the skeleton of the senator’s comeback plan. In a nutshell, the strategy was premised on McCain excelling in three early-voting states: Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

Success in these three states would get McCain back on track, and victory would beget more victory. The plan looks a little shaky in light of the senator’s wholesale collapse in Iowa.

[A] new University of Iowa poll finds that McCain is at all of three percent in that state. Incredibly, this onetime presumed frontrunner is behind even Sam Brownback and Tom Tancredo, who each have four percent.

Meanwhile, Mitt Romney leads the field with 27%, followed by Rudy Giuliani at 11%. And in third place is Fred Thompson — who only just recently announced that he would be making his first visit to the state.

Taking a closer look at the numbers, one other important tidbit jumped out at me. Respondents to the University of Iowa poll were asked an open-ended question: name the candidate they support for president in the 2008 election. They could name any candidate from either party, and were not offered choices.

Among Republicans who said they were caucus goers, it’s Romney 27% (up from 17% in March), Giuliani 11% (down from 20%), Thompson 6.5% (up from 1.5%), Brownback 4.2%, Tancredo 4.2%, and McCain 3.2% (down from 21%).

But the poll also gauged support among registered Iowa Republicans, whether they’re planning to participate in the caucuses or not. And that’s where it gets ugly.

The changes among Republican voters since March are dramatic. Romney is now the preferred candidate at 21.8 percent — double his March support.

Giuliani’s support, 10 percent, decreased by almost 8.5 percent. McCain’s support has collapsed in Iowa. His support among registered Republicans dropped from 14.4 percent in March to 1.8 percent in July-August. UI political scientists note that McCain has been passed in popularity not only by former Sen. Fred Thompson, R-Tenn., who earned 5.2 percent support, but also by a Democratic challenger, Obama, who is supported by 6.7 percent of Republicans. No other candidate received more than 3 percent support. (emphasis added)

Think about that for a moment. Among Iowa Republicans, McCain has fallen behind Obama? And Iowa is the key to McCain’s comeback plan?

Is this where Baghdad John drifts off into oblivion?

  • I used to think Republicans, whatever their faults, were pretty good at settling on credible presidential candidates when all was said and done. They seem to have lost this. I’m no McCain fan, but he’s probably the sole non-buffoon they have in that entire ridiculous field they have running. It’s like they are so divorced from reality they can’t stop themselves anymore.

  • “Among Iowa Republicans, McCain has fallen behind Obama?” – CB

    And Giuliani only has 3.3% on Obama among those Iowa Republicans. Is Obama that much of a republican, or is the republican field of candidates just that bad?

  • I saw McCain on with Matt Lauer this morning, and it was just painful to watch.

    McCain looks sad, old and tired. On top of that, he seems divorced from the reality of his situation; maybe he thinks that these other guys are going to flame out and he, as the last man standing, will finally end up wearing the mantle of Republican nominee – I don’t know.

    And, he’s really not showing up for work in the Senate, either; his voting record in this session is abysmal.

    I guess what McCain is learning is that when you sell your soul to the Devil, you don’t always get your money’s worth.

  • I’m very disappointed in McCain. I’ve invested a lot time, anger and worry in McCain and he has totally thrown that all away. I’m not sure I can generate that level of commitment to scorn, demonization and ridicule for another candidate. Damn these long campaigns.

  • Hope John latches on to an antidepressant, yoga, exercise, non-political(non-corporate) service, or an uplifting reality based philosophy to soften the blow. He deserves better than the self imposed oblivion that he is probably facing. I never questioned his decency and you cant say that about many republicans.

  • CB wrote: “Among Iowa Republicans, McCain has fallen behind Obama?”

    !SNORT! *giggle*

    Anne wrote: “I guess what McCain is learning is that when you sell your soul to the Devil, you don’t always get your money’s worth.”

    I really get the impression that after his loss of the nomination in 2000, the RW machine promised McCain the world if he put his ‘straight-talk’ to the service of Bush. I think you’re right that he is slowly coming to realize that he was promised things that couldn’t be delivered, and that he’s sold himself out for nothing.

    Michael wrote: “He deserves better than the self imposed oblivion that he is probably facing. I never questioned his decency and you cant say that about many republicans.”

    I would say he deserved better (past tense). I really liked McCain back in the pre-9/11 era. He was clearly really conservative, but always seemed like an intelligent, not-too-ideological conservative. The last few years have demonstrated that that particular McCain is gone, if he ever existed in the first place.

  • I used to think Republicans, whatever their faults, were pretty good at settling on credible presidential candidates when all was said and done. -jimBOB

    Does Bush fall into the ‘credible’ category? Do you honestly think McPander does? There’s no ‘lesser evil’ on the GOP pallet. It’s quite literally a who’s who of the most unqualified candidates in the history of democracy.

  • I’m no McCain fan, but he’s probably the sole non-buffoon they have in that entire ridiculous field they have running. — JimBOB, @2

    You’re talking of pre-9/11 McCain, or perhaps even pre ’00 McCain. But he doesn’t exist anymore; he’s been broken beyond repair.

  • McCain—a wholesale collapse? Sheesh; that guy’s imploding faster than a 1950’s Vegas casino….

  • As bad as this is for McCain, it also has to be bad for Rudy. He’s behind Obama as well, as you note, yet he’s still being talked up as a serious contender. Combining this with the fact that one big facet of his supposed electoral strength–his ability to be elected in New York–is proving to be thin with the polls that show him being beaten handily by both Obama and Clinton, it’s hard to see how much longer he’ll be treated as the front runner.

  • I don’t think it is because Obama is that much of a Republican. He has a very hopeful and unifying message that I think could attractr a lot of people with diverse political preferences. For Republicans who are not happy with the direction and incompetence of their own party (perhaps half of them), who are upset by the level of polarization in the country (perhaps half of those) and who are willing to consider voting for a Democrat (okay, so now we are down to 6.7% of them), Obama could well look pretty good.

    If this continues, it bodes really well for Republicans not turning out to vote in the general election. But hey, they’ve always got Diebold and the Supreme Court, so there’s no reason for them to worry 🙂

  • 3. On August 9th, 2007 at 1:01 pm, Danny said:
    And Giuliani only has 3.3% on Obama among those Iowa Republicans. Is Obama that much of a republican, or is the republican field of candidates just that bad?

    They’re that bad. Stunningly bad. Campaigning hard to outdo each other so they can garner the support of the ever-shrinking minority that think Bush is doing just great. And just when you didn’t think the bad could get any better, Alan Keyes is trying to draft himself to run too. Now if only we could get Bill Frist to jump in…..oh c’mon, you remember Frist, used to be the Senator from Tennessee, slightly higher quality hairpiece than Trent Lott?

    And Roy Moore hasn’t declared yet…….

  • …Giuliani 11% (down from 20%)…

    Wow. Now that is a surprising number. Are the lugnuts starting to loosen on Giuliani’s campaign wheels? It sure looks like it.

  • The problem for John McCain is that he doesn’t have a single segment of the electorate that is strongly for him, so he has no group of supporters he can fall back on. He’s also pretty much aof political loner, with no other politicos out there speaking on his behalf. The money backers have deserted him. And he lost or got rid of almost all of his long–and loyal–staffers. Finally, he is over 70 and it shows. Almost Shakesperean: The King Lear of candidates abandoned in his political dotage.

  • Early in, early out. Letting Americans get to really know them doesn’t seem to be working for all these politicians.
    Maybe America has not found what she is looking for yet in Presidential candidates? (of course, I’m only speaking of the candidates who get media coverage).

  • the only good republican running for President is Senator Ron Paul of Texas. I have always voted democrat but I listened to Ron Paul and I like him and would vote for him.

  • Well, this lifelong California Republican, who only last month re-registered as “Decline to State” a party preference, cannot see any Republican candidate with any chance whatsoever of nomination that he would vote for in preference to any credible Democrat candidate (or even most of the not-so-credible lower-tier candidates). The Reeps are all nuts. Unfortunately, the Dems in Congress keep stabbing the voting public in the back, kow-towing to the Bush regime, which limits enthusiasm and diminishes trust. Nonetheless: I wouild even hold my nose and vote for Hillary in preference to any of the Republicans in the race. (Given my choice, I’d like to see Richardson get the Democrat nomination, given his experience and apparent character. And as for Obama, let’s face it, he has written more books than Bush has read. Maybe the resume is still a bit thin, but he does stand out.)

  • McCain has taken so many different positions so many times on multiple issues of importance that he would lose to “none of the above” if he somehow turned out to be the only candidate from any party to run for the presidency. He is beyond unelectable.

    Obama is benefiting from his appeal to young voters and the young “not able to vote”. A vote is a vote, as long as it isn’t counted by a California voting machine.

    I suspect that one has to read between the lines when Obama shows up as a preferred Republican. Translation: the GOP is in some serious trouble at the moment, and needs more than a silver lining or rainbow to pull itself back onto its feet. It is Watergate all over again, but with a new spelling: Waterboard.

    I seriously believe religion needs to be removed from the politics on the GOP side because Romney looks more and more like the only potential winner.

  • I’ve been reading about this development (McCain polling behind Obama) along with the concurrent story that New Hampshire plans to move up its primary. I get the sense that many of the candidates wish that Iowa would go away as a litmus test for electability. Justified or not, Iowa’s voter’s views are given great attention because they are first. Not to belittle their opinions, but thanks to the media obsession with picking a winner (the party nominee) as quickly as possible, the earliest votes get the most intense scrutiny. Does anyone else get the sense that both parties would prefer the bigger money states to weigh in earlier?

  • Congressman Ron Paul (Tx.) is the ONLY Republican I will be voting for (in the primaries). It’ll be interesting to see how he fares in the Ames Straw Poll. According to everyone in the media he doesn’t exist. I think he’s got more support than any of the pundits are willing to concede. It’d be funny as H E doulbe L if he landed up in the top tier after the votes are counted. Wouldn’t surprise me, tho.

    Say yes to Dr. NO!

  • I disagree with Frank Burns. Iowa is the 25th largest state in both size and population. It was the 25th state admitted to the Union (sometime in the 1840’s, I think), and it’s sort of near the geographical center of the country. Most importantly, there’s about a 50/50 mix of Democrats and knuckle-dragging, bible-thumping, mouth breathing,reptilian-Americans.
    It’s a natural site to begin the election process.

  • Is anyone else starting to get the idea that the GOP is going to be headed to a brokered convention next year? I just don’t see all of the Republican groups solidifying around a single candidate–are pro-lifers really going to be pounding the pavement for Rudy Giuliani? Are business conservatives going to gather around Fred Thompson, a man who voted for McCain-Feingold and opposes “comprehensive reform”? Plus, the two frontrunners–Giuliani and Thompson–both seem like they’ve got a couple of other shoes just waiting to drop. I don’t know if Thompson has the guts to stay in the race that long if he’s facing that kind of prssure, modern history would indicate no. But the GOP can kiss the White House goodbye if that happens. Not having a candidate until September? Deadly.

  • Obama clearly has the ability to widen the spectrum of people who would vote for a Democratic Candidate, with him as the nominee the Democrata can insure dominance for a generation.

  • And as for Obama, let’s face it, he has written more books than Bush has read

    Now THAT made me laugh pretty hard. Well said, sir. Well said.

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