Ames Straw Poll — playing the expectations game

August 11, 2007

The Ames Straw Poll is a pretty big deal, with the potential to shake up the GOP race quite a bit. With that in mind, it’s worth taking a closer look at.

With McCain, Giuliani, and Fred Thompson sitting this one out, the results of Straw Poll are fairly predictable — Romney’s going to come out on top. But there are still plenty of reasons to keep an eye on the results, and plenty of questions that will be answered once the votes are tallied.

* How much will Romney win by? — Though Giuliani aides have been trying to raise expectations beyond reason (they’ve suggested Romney has to win by an 8 to 1 margin), Romney will realistically have to get more than 30% support to have a good day. (Bush won with 31% in 2000.) A big win will solidify Romney as the Iowa frontrunner. A narrow win will raise questions about his chances.

* Who’ll come in second? — With so many second- and third-tier candidates cluttering the Republican field, the race for second is fierce. Either Huckabee or Brownback will use a second-place finish to argue that they belong in the top tier (at least as much as McCain). Also keep an eye on Tancredo, this cycle’s Alan Keyes.

* Is Brownback for real? — The Kansas senator apparently has an impressive Iowa operation, including a fleet of buses to transport supporters. But as Chris Cillizza noted, “If he doesn’t place second or — maybe — third, it’s hard to see how Brownback justifies going on.”

* Who’ll drop out? — “Those who fail miserably [in the Straw Poll] are out of the race,” said Chuck Laudner, executive director of the Iowa Republican Party. “That’s just the coldhearted truth of it all.” Tommy Thompson has already suggested he’ll likely withdraw unless he finishes in the top two, which is rather unlikely. Huckabee has also hinted he’ll “reevaluate” if he fares poorly in Ames. Brownback has said today is not a “make or break” event for him.

* Is Paul a player? — Ron Paul has fared poorly in Iowa polls, but the Straw Poll is all about organization, and the Texas congressman has some loyal and active fans. Regrettably, Paul’s wife was hospitalized this morning and the congressman will not be in Iowa today, but if he manages a strong showing — say, top three — Paul will be hard to dismiss as a fringe candidate. (Update: a commenter says Paul is in Iowa and will be campaigning today.)

* What about the no-shows? — As Eric Kleefeld and T. W. Farnam noted, if Giuliani, McCain, and/or Thompson actually generate some decent results without trying, there will be even more pressure on candidates who compete and come up short.

The voting is ongoing right now and will wrap up at 7 p.m. eastern. The results will be announced an hour later. Stay tuned.

Congressman Paul IS in Iowa and will be speaking at the Straw Poll. His wife is in the hospital in Ames Iowa and is doing fine.

  • I remember going to the straw poll in 1979. The Bush campaign rented a bus for a bunch of us to go from my college. Most of us were Democrats and one of the people who recruited the most people was a big supporter of Howard Baker.

    I guy named Fernandez gave the funniest speech and he ended up getting my vote. I probably should have voted for Anderson and I ended up supported Anderson at the caucus.

    So Bush paid for the bus and he paid for me to go to the straw poll and Fernandez got my vote.

    As you know, Bush did OK and I never heard from Fernandez again.

  • I think Ron Paul may do surprisingly well at the straw poll, but his supporters did him serious damage in the bigger picture here over the last 48 hours. Paul supporters brought a federal lawsuit to stop the poll from using a Diebold vote tabulating machine.

    The suit would actually have some merit in an official election, but Iowans are a reasonably bright group and the online comments in various local blogs and comments sections of various Iowa newspapers has been very adverse — everyone (and the court nailed this easy one within a few hours of the argument in a written ruling dismissing the case) understands this is a private fundraising activity and the Iowa Republican Party can count votes any way it wants. Don’t like how the Republicans do things? Don’t be a Republican.

    By naming the county auditor as a defendant, a public entity had to waste tax dollars to defend this patently frivolous suit. (And it ties up judicial resources that are not without cost.) Paul was not officially involved, but every story has identified the plaintiffs as supporters of Paul. The taxpaying public appears to be very unamused.

  • Ron Paul.
    Heh…
    It says a lot when the most sane Republican candy-date
    is a glibertarian Randy.

    Food for thought.
    Or at least some empty calories.

  • I wonder if anyone will have the gumption to vote for Jeb. Will the Republicans turn to him if Hollywoof Fred tanks?

  • As I noted above, the lawsuit against the Diebold machines at the straw poll was frivolous because the “poll” is no such thing – it is a non-binding fundraising gimmick.

    I also said above that such a suit against Diebold machines might make sense before the general election.

    What I can now add is that the straw poll can provide more fuel for the anti-Diebold case before the general election: the Diebold machines appear to have broken down.

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