Less than 24 hours ago, which suddenly seems like a long time ago, I noted that U.S. News ran with a rumor that Alberto Gonzales would soon be replaced by Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff. I suggested that the president would “probably pick someone who stood a good chance of being confirmed,” and questioned whether Chertoff would fit the bill.
I heard from a variety of readers who argued the opposite — Bush doesn’t care about getting a nominee confirmed; he cares about giving the GOP something to be excited about. It’s a fair point, and I’m beginning to reevaluate my initial take.
Indeed, Matt Yglesias’ argument is helping push me further from my argument.
Conventional wisdom started to congeal over the weekend that for a replacement Bush was going to try to find a relatively uncontroversial figure who’d have an easy time getting confirmed.
That might happen, but my best guess is that Bush will go out of his way to pick somebody fairly controversial — someone whose confirmation liberals will find outrageous — and then start loudly and immediately declaring that each hour’s delay in confirming his nominee is putting thousands of lives at risk. The hope would be to generate one of these situations where all the Republicans plus maybe a dozen Democrats vote to confirm, and then progressives spend the next month arguing with themselves over it, and even the Democrats who reliable agree to surrender on anything terror-related get criticized in fall ’08 for being soft on terror.
That not only sounds right, it sounds like a scenario we’ve seen play out over and over again.
In fact, the more I think about it, the more I’d be surprised if Bush did care about finding some kind of “consensus” nominee who’d draw broad, bipartisan support. Has this president ever behaved this way?
As a matter of governing responsibly, Bush should realize that the departure of a scandalous AG gives him an opportunity to heal some rifts, mend some bridges, and finally bring some honor and competence to the Justice Department. But therein lies the rub: Bush has never taken seriously the notion of governing responsibly.
I know Karl Rove is on his way out, but if his philosophy still has any sway in the West Wing, and I suspect it does, Gonzales’ resignation is an opportunity to exploit — pick another conservative loyalist. If Dems balk, whine bitterly and use it as a rallying cry to drum up some enthusiasm among depressed activists in the GOP base.
Indeed, Beutler noted the benefits of a Chertoff nomination.
That obviously doesn’t mean Chertoff is definitely going to be his replacement. But what wouldn’t surprise me is if Bush takes the opportunity to pick a terrorism-related fight with Democrats by appointing some draconian monster to fill the resulting vacancy. Both Justice of DHS have enough to do with national security that the administration can construe the battle over any controversial nominee as an example of liberals being weak on terrorism.
Here’s a radical idea: the president, after Congress returns from recess, should invite the Senate Democratic leadership, including Leahy, to the White House for a friendly chat. Lawmakers should bring a list of respected Republican attorneys with distinguished records and management experience, all of whom would be confirmed. The president should consider the list, and pick the best candidate from the Dems’ field. It could all be done quickly, cooperatively, and in good faith, with no one trying to score points off the other.
That, of course, will never, ever happen — indeed, it’s ridiculous to even contemplate — but once in a while, it’s amusing to remember how the political process used to work before 2001.