I’ve been thinking a lot about Howard Dean’s predicament — juggling failure with a desire to compete — and I think I have a helpful suggestion.
I realize that Dean is probably not interested in my advice, but I think I know a way for him to keep his original pledge (stop campaigning after a loss in Wisconsin), while also keeping his revised pledge (insisting he won’t drop out, even after another loss).
Dean could “suspend” his campaign operations. He’d technically still be in the race and on the ballot in upcoming races, but he wouldn’t actively be pursuing the nomination.
Assuming Dean loses in Wisconsin today, as the polls suggest he likely will, Dean will find himself in a similar position to John McCain after Super Tuesday in 2000. McCain was no longer winning, he was just about out of money, the polls were discouraging, and party leaders were leaning on him to withdraw. At the same time, McCain had a fair amount of delegates, he didn’t want to endorse Bush, and he thought he could just hang out to see if something caused Bush’s campaign to fall apart.
Dean finds himself in an almost-identical position. If he really wants to follow the McCain model, Dean will do tomorrow what McCain did in March 2000 — “suspend” campaign operations.
In the 2000 GOP race, it was clear after Super Tuesday that Bush was going to be the nominee, even though he hadn’t officially clinched the delegates needed for the nomination. By suspending his campaign, McCain left open the possibility of re-entering the race if Bush’s nomination imploded. Best of all, he refused to endorse Bush because, technically, he wasn’t dropping out.
Dean could do the exact same thing. The pressure to leave the stage is intense, but Dean wants to move forward without formally withdrawing. He doesn’t want to endorse Kerry and he’d like to stick around in case something derails Kerry’s campaign, especially before he has the delegates needed to officially be the nominee.
Slate’s Ted Rose explained four years ago that candidates who drop out lose their at-large delegates. If Dean were to suspend his campaign, instead of withdrawing, he could go into the convention with 100 or so delegates, where he could continue to irritate the party, insist on some amendment to the party platform that he may feel strongly about, and appoint his supporters to convention committees.
As Jake Tapper put it in 2000, candidates who suspend their campaigns “opt out without losing [their] voice” at the convention.
The important difference between Dean in 2004 and McCain in 2000 is John Edwards. McCain suspended his campaign knowing that he could re-enter the race if Bush faltered. It was, by March, a two-man race.
Dean doesn’t have that luxury. Depending on your perspective, Edwards is running second and Dean third in this race. Complicating matters for Dean, Edwards is about to get another check from the FEC and Dean isn’t because he withdrew from the system. Even if something unbelievable happens to derail Kerry, Edwards would likely be the beneficiary, not Dean.
Nevertheless, I don’t see Dean with a lot of choices right now. His staff is planning their vacations, the media drumbeat is deafening, and he’s just about broke.
Given the circumstances, I think suspending his campaign gives Dean most of what he wants — he won’t have to endorse Kerry, he’ll keep most of his delegates, he’ll still technically be in the race if something unforeseen happens, and he’ll be in a position to raise hell at the convention.
What more can a guy who’s lost every primary and caucus ask for?