In May, the president signed legislation that funded the war in Iraq, and included a mandate that the administration report by Sept. 15 on whether Iraq is “achieving progress” toward 18 specific benchmarks. It was about establishing some measurable standards of success — meeting the benchmarks would reflect actual progress, falling short would reflect failure.
In July, the White House, after fudging its facts a bit, concluded it was on track on eight of the 18 benchmarks, none of them dealing with political progress, which is the point of the “surge” policy. Today, the non-partisan Government Accountability Office will offer a far more discouraging, far more accurate, and a “strikingly negative” assessment.
Iraq has failed to meet all but three of 18 congressionally mandated benchmarks for political and military progress, according to a draft of a Government Accountability Office report. The document questions whether some aspects of a more positive assessment by the White House last month adequately reflected the range of views the GAO found within the administration. […]
The draft provides a stark assessment of the tactical effects of the current U.S.-led counteroffensive to secure Baghdad. “While the Baghdad security plan was intended to reduce sectarian violence, U.S. agencies differ on whether such violence has been reduced,” it states. While there have been fewer attacks against U.S. forces, it notes, the number of attacks against Iraqi civilians remains unchanged. It also finds that “the capabilities of Iraqi security forces have not improved.”
“Overall,” the report concludes, “key legislation has not been passed, violence remains high, and it is unclear whether the Iraqi government will spend $10 billion in reconstruction funds,” as promised. While it makes no policy recommendations, the draft suggests that future administration assessments “would be more useful” if they backed up their judgments with more details and “provided data on broader measures of violence from all relevant U.S. agencies.”
That last point is particularly noteworthy — the GAO is effectively conceding in a government report that the White House intends to deceive the Congress and the public. We may have come to expect stunning dishonesty from the Bush administration, but for the GAO to call the White House out like that reflects just how reckless and mendacious the Bush gang has become.
As for the GAO’s findings themselves, the report documents a policy that is clearly and measurably failing.
Through smoke and mirrors, Bush and his allies (Kristol, Lieberman, & Co.) have somehow shaped the conventional wisdom to reflect real progress in Iraq. We’re “turning the corner.” The president’s policy is finally “working.” This is no time to “retreat.”
It’s all nonsense.
Overall, the draft report, titled “Securing, Stabilizing and Rebuilding Iraq,” says that the Iraqi government has met only two security benchmarks. It contradicts the Bush administration’s conclusion in July that sectarian violence was decreasing as a result of the U.S. military’s stepped-up operations in Baghdad this year. “The average number of daily attacks against civilians remained about the same over the last six months; 25 in February versus 26 in July,” the GAO draft states.
Iraqi security forces are also assessed more severely in the GAO study than in the administration’s July report. Although the White House found satisfactory progress toward the goal of deploying three Iraqi army brigades in Baghdad, the GAO disagrees, citing “performance problems” in some units. “Some army units sent to Baghdad have mixed loyalties, and some have had ties to Shiia militias making it difficult to target Shiia extremist networks,” it says.
The GAO draft also says that the number of Iraqi army units capable of operating independently declined from 10 in March to six last month. The July White House report mentioned a “slight” decline in capable Iraqi units, without providing any numbers. The GAO also says, as did the White House in July, that the Iraqi government has intervened in military activities for political reasons, “resulting in some operations being based on sectarian interests.” But its discussion of Iraqi security forces is often veiled, as when it states that the determination that the security forces benchmark was not met “was based largely on classified information.”
Not surprisingly, the White House is afraid of the GAO report, and is ready to push back against it.
An internal White House memorandum, prepared to respond to the GAO findings, says the report will claim the Iraqis have failed on at least 13 benchmarks. It also says the criteria lawmakers set for the report allow no room to report progress, only absolute success or failure.
The memo argues that the GAO will not present a “true picture” of the situation in Iraq because the standards were “designed to lock in failure,” according to portions of the document read to the AP by an official who has seen it.
Indeed, that’s exactly why the GAO report was leaked now — the agency wanted the public and policy makers to know the truth before the White House Spin Machine could water-down reality.
In January, everyone endorsing Bush’s surge policy agreed that this was his “last chance.” This had to work, or it was all over.
This isn’t complicated. Nearly nine months later, the policy has failed.