I don’t like to brag, but I did call this one. The debate over whether Dean would drop out or keep fighting missed the third option: suspending campaign operations.
Dean will still be on the ballot, he’s not endorsing anyone, and he’ll still use his delegates at the convention. Dean won’t actually be a candidate in the sense of raising money and competing for votes, but he’ll be around — just in case.
In his speech this afternoon, Dean also hinted that he’ll be turning his campaign structure into a grassroots political organization. Candidates have talked about doing this before (Jerry Brown in ’92, Jesse Jackson in ’88), and Perot sort of did this after the ’92 election, but Dean really has a shot at pulling together a meaningful group with a lot of members and financial support. I have some more thoughts on this that I’ll share later in the week.
And, in case there was any doubt, Dean put to rest any rumors that he’d consider running as a third party candidate. He committed today to support the Dem nominee, no matter who it is. Dean even urged his supporters to reject any campaigns that may hurt the Dems, a not-so-subtle reminder that Nader is out of the question.
What’s unclear at this point is who benefits most from Dean’s departure from the race.
Dean and Kerry have become bitter rivals competing for similar kinds of voters. Dean staffers, in particular, have come to see Kerry as an enemy, not a rival. With that in mind, it’s hard to see Kerry picking up a majority of Dean’s supporters.
Kerry will benefit, however, by Dean’s absence — nobody has been as critical of Kerry for nearly a year as Dean. With Dean back in Vermont, and Edwards continuing to be the “nice” candidate, Kerry can campaign hard without having to deal with Dean’s attacks.
Edwards may get a little extra boost from Dean’s departure, on top of the momentum generated by his strong second-place showing in Wisconsin. In a two-man race, as it has now formally become, Dean backers who hate Kerry may gravitate to Edwards by default. Edwards has already starting making overtures to Dean supporters, reminding them that he shares their goals and, as a one-term senator, remains a relative outsider.
This may sound a little silly, but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see a handful of Dean backers support Kucinich as part of a protest vote in the next few primaries. Dean has effectively convinced his supporters that Kerry and Edwards are part of “the problem” (Bush-lite, war backers, voted for NCLB and the Patriot Act, etc.). Particularly for the most liberal of Dean’s fans, throwing some support to Kucinich could be their way to send a message to the “establishment.” Who knows, maybe Dennis could get to double digits in some state.