Hagel to call it quits

September 8, 2007

In March, in one of the year’s strangest political moments, Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) called a “major” press conference to discuss his future political plans. The event, which most assumed would be a presidential announcement, drew much of the political press corps and live television coverage. “I’m here today to announce that my family and I will make a decision on my political future later this year,” Hagel said, effectively making an announcement to let people know he’ll make an announcement some other time.

“Later this year” has apparently arrived and Hagel’s decided to call it quits.

Chuck Hagel will announce Monday that he is retiring from the U.S. Senate and will not run for president next year, people close to the Nebraska Republican said Friday.

Hagel plans to announce that “he will not run for re-election and that he does not intend to be a candidate for any office in 2008,” said one person, who asked not to be named.

Hagel has scheduled a press conference for 10 a.m. Monday at the Omaha Press Club.

According to one person interviewed, Hagel told Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky on Friday morning that he had decided to retire. Hagel’s staff learned of his decision that afternoon.

The report has also been confirmed by the WaPo and the NYT.

As conservative as Nebraska is, the seat is now in play. GOP candidates will likely include state Attorney General Jon Bruning, financial adviser Pat Flynn, former Gov. Mike Johanns, former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub; and Columbus businessman Tony Raimondo. Among Dems, most of the interest has been focused on former Sen. Bob Kerrey, president of the New School University in New York City, who has already expressed interest in the race.

None of this is what the GOP wanted to hear.

Sure, Hagel has been a thorn in the party’s side by breaking ranks on Iraq policy, but 2008 was poised to be a difficult cycle anyway for the party — the GOP has 22 seats to defend next year, the Dems have 12. With an unpopular war, an unpopular incumbent president, and an unpopular party in general, Republicans need to keep retirements to a minimum in order to conserve campaign resources.

And yet, they’re exiting stage right. Hagel joins Warner (Va.) and Craig (Idaho) among the GOP incumbents who’ve already announced their retirement plans. Throw in some pick-up opportunities for Dems in Colorado, New Hampshire, and Minnesota, and some in-play races in Maine, Oregon, New Mexico, and even Kentucky, and you have a discouraging landscape for Republicans.

And how are Republican insiders responding to this landscape? With dread and panic.

“It’s always darkest right before you get clobbered over the head with a pipe wrench. But then it actually does get darker,” said a GOP pollster who insisted on anonymity in order to speak candidly. […]

Republican campaign operatives are privately fretting about a political environment that could remain deadly for their party.

“About the only safe Republican Senate seats in ’08 are the ones that aren’t on the ballot,” a GOP operative with extensive experience in Senate races said. “I don’t see even the rosiest scenario where we don’t end up losing more seats.”

Stay tuned.

Interesting.

Hagel is one of the few members of GOP I respect. I get the sense he drives the sycophantic chickenhawk Republican wingnutters a little crazy, but they have to view his resignation as a political loss — he’s pretty popular in his home state, and his seat seemed pretty safe as far as I could tell.

  • Small loss in practical terms as far as bucking the White House. For all his cheap talk, Hagel’s voting record is nearly perfect in agreeing with whatever Bush put in front of him. Now there’s a chance for getting someone in there who might really put his money where his mouth is.

  • Now there’s a chance for getting someone in there who might really put his money where his mouth is.

    Alas, the most likely replacement is Bob Kerrey, the guy who invented Liebermanism. Still, it’s Nebraska, so he’s probably about as good as we’re going to do.

  • Ed Stephan: I was not aware of Hagel’s ties to Diebold. Thanks for the tip. (Just google “diebold” and “hagel” and there are lots of articles to read.)

  • Hey! Maybe we’ll get lucky and one of these “retiring to spend more time with my family” Republicans will discover a righteous bone in his body and write a “tell-all” about what really went down in the Bush administration – the bribery, the scare tactics, the threats, the deceptions. Um. Oh, never mind. It’ll never happen. They’re Republicans.

  • I think Hagel, like Warner is calling it quits because they are disgusted with their party, and their inability to change their party.

    It really makes one wonder. Apparently Bush/Cheney/Rove is still calling the shoots on the future of the Repub party. If this were an individual, this behavior is certainly self destructive and almost psychotic given the nation wide unpopularity of the Repub parties direction and the willingness to gamble the fate of the party in the 2008 election.

    I think we’re watching the Repub party self-destruct, and the sane people are jumping ship.

  • I’m expecting more of this. An article I read last year mentioned that there was a wave of Democrats retiring from congress in 1996, in the wake of the Republican takeover in ’94 and it makes intuitive sense it you think about it.

    Say you’re a member of the party that’s been in power for a decade or two. You’ve worked your way up to some plum committee assignments, maybe a chairmanship. You’ve become accustomed to having things your way and lording it over the minority. Life is good. Then one day, boom. The minority becomes the majority. It’s payback time and life isn’t so good anymore. A year goes by and you’re looking down the barrel of another election year. You start thinking about the prospect of prostrating yourself before contributors to raise a war chest then taking your daily beatings on the campaign trail with all the 18-hours days, cold food and sleeping in strange beds that go with them and if you win, your reward is to go back to congress for another term in the minority, where life ain’t so good anymore. On the other hand, retiring on a nice fat federal pension starts sounding pretty good right about then, I reckon.

  • For the record, Bruning has already declared his intentions to run, some time ago. In fact, some internal polling suggested he could beat Hagel in a primary.

  • #5 Ed: Hagel was involved with ES&S, not Diebold. But still a voting company with suspicious results, etc.

    Hannah, writing from Colorado

  • “GOP candidates will likely include state Attorney General Jon Bruning, financial adviser Pat Flynn, former Gov. Mike Johanns, former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub; and Columbus businessman Tony Raimondo.”

    Just a perspective from a life-long Cornhusker:

    Attorney General Jon Bruning: Pulled a Hagel a few months back with his “I might run” news conference where he didn’t say a whole hell of a lot, but interrupted “Ellen” for it (it sure pissed my wife off).
    He’s basically party line, which, as it may be hard to believe, is becoming more unpopular in this state, especially with 75% of the state NG and Reserves having served at least 2 tours overseas.

    financial adviser Pat Flynn: I speak for about 80% of Nebraskans when I say “Pat who?”

    former Gov. Mike Johanns: A popular former mayor of Lincoln and governor, but in my opinion his record is due more to the fact that he didn’t do much to irritate farmers and ranchers out west, who have a distate for us “city-slickers” in eastern part of the state.

    former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub: Rubbed a lot of people the wrong way here, kind of brush and hard-headed, albeit charming at times (I met him once down in the Old Market in Omaha, and he was pleasant to talk to about non-political issues). However, he almost lost twice to Democrat Brenda Council, and eventually would lose the mayoral race to Democrat Mike Fahey. And he had an unsuccessful run at the Senate against Democrat Jim Exon back in 1990.

    Columbus businessman Tony Raimondo: Typical small-town Nebraskan response, “Tony who? Sounds too Mexican if you ask me.” But he’s from Columbus, which means he’s probably running on an anti-illegal immigration platform (lots of meatpacking plants around there).

    As for Bob Kerrey:
    A very popular governor, and a very popular senatort. Vietnam war hero, and is considered an extremely likable person. And he left both offices by deciding not to run for re-election.

    So from my view, on the GOP side the best shot is Johanns, based on his previous popularity as a public official.

    But my money is on Kerrey for 2008.

    Then again, I think Nebraska is going to beat USC by 10 points. So take my word with a boulder of salt.

  • So, if we beat the GOP in Nebraska, is it another Ben “legend in his own mind” Nelson sorta-a-Dem that we “win”????

    And people wonder why it is that when I used to regularly drive from Chicago to San Francisco, I would schedule my trip to hit Omaha at dusk, and come out at Cheyenne at dawn. And the reverse on the swing-back.

  • Tom,

    You actually think the drive across Illinois and Iowa is better than across Nebraska?

    As someone who has driven many a times across all three, I beg to differ, sir.

    And I remember driving across western Utah thinking “Now I know what the plateau of Gorogoroth looked like”.

  • 2Manchu: “You actually think the drive across Illinois and Iowa is better than across Nebraska?”

    As it happens, I just watched The Straight Story last night, so now I’ve driven across Iowa by proxy. And it took less than an hour!

    Has Bob Kerrey maintained a residence in Nebraska, even as he works in NYC?

    …and some in-play races in Maine, Oregon, New Mexico, and even Kentucky…

    …And even Alaska, if Ted Stevens decides he’s too old for this shit and decides to enjoy his Bargain Basement before the feds confiscate it.

  • CB, you said: “the GOP has 22 seats to defend next year, the Dems have 12. With an unpopular war, an unpopular incumbent president, and an unpopular party in general, Republicans need to keep retirements to a minimum in order to conserve campaign resources.”

    Though I have my own theories about Shrub’s “incumbency” which aren’t pleasant, does giving him this status really make sense here? Please, let’s not give him any more ideas about sticking around longer, shall we?

  • Sen Hagel quit because he feared being defeated in the Nebraska primary. His nasty liberalism on the war, his liberalism on immigration, badmouthing of President Bush, praise for the liberal Mayor Bloomberg,really intemperate berating of the Republican party doomed him in Republican Nebraska, and he knows it. Happy he is leaving and wish him well..

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