The religious right’s third-party plans

October 1, 2007

Following up on an item from the weekend, the highly-secretive Council for National Policy, made up of many heavy-hitters from the religious right and conservative movement in general, met over the weekend in Utah. While participants at these gatherings are usually tight-lipped, yesterday attendees were dishing quite a bit about the CNP’s thoughts on the 2008 presidential election.

The message wasn’t subtle: the religious right won’t support the Republican ticket if Rudy Giuliani is the nominee, even if that means backing a third-party candidate.

The threat emerged from a group that broke away for separate discussions at a meeting Saturday in Salt Lake City of the Council for National Policy, a secretive conservative networking group. Participants said the smaller group included James C. Dobson of Focus on the Family, who is perhaps its most influential member; Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council; Richard A. Viguerie, the direct-mail pioneer; and dozens of other politically oriented conservative Christians.

Almost everyone present at the smaller group’s meeting expressed support for a written resolution stating that “if the Republican Party nominates a pro-abortion candidate we will consider running a third-party candidate,” participants said.

The participants said that the group chose the qualified term “consider” because it had not yet identified an alternative candidate, but that it was largely united in its plans to bolt the party if Mr. Giuliani, the former New York mayor, became the nominee.

Now, it’s tempting to dismiss this as an empty threat. Steve M. makes a compelling case that the GOP’s far-right, theocratic base hates Hillary Clinton so much, it won’t much matter who the Republicans nominate; they’ll do everything they can to beat her. The notion that Dobson & Co. would split the right and ensure a Democratic victory is folly.

Maybe so. But I think these rumors have a broader salience that may impact the race quite a bit.

First, there’s the way in which these rumors undercut Giuliani’s principal campaign pitch. If you listen to the former NYC mayor’s typical stump speech, it includes two main parts: 9/11 and electability. On the prior, Giuliani seems to believe he alone owns the right to exploit mass slaughter for partisan gain. But on the latter, Giuliani desperately tries to convince every Republican and conservative audience he can find that he stands a better chance of winning a general election than any GOP candidate.

“I’m the only Republican candidate who can beat Hillary Clinton,” Giuliani often says.

Implicit in the argument is that he can keep the GOP together with an emphasis on a reckless foreign policy and irresponsible tax cuts, and then also win over independents and a few Dems who might buy into the notion that he’s some kind of social moderate.

The rumors out of the CNP meeting necessarily undercut Giuliani’s pitch, a fact that Romney and Thompson will no doubt be anxious to exploit. “Why nominate a candidate who’ll chase our base into a third party?” they’ll say.

Second, the religious right may very well be bluffing about breaking off from the GOP if the party nominates Giuliani, but it’s worth remembering that there’s some self-preservation at play here. Dobson & Co., not to mention their loyal followers, believe they have enormous influence in Republican circles, and can dictate the party’s direction. If the Republicans nominate a pro-choice, pro-gay, pro-gun control, thrice-married serial adulterer who wants to invest in stem-cell research, the religious right’s masquerade will be over. It will be obvious that the movement is practically powerless in the party, and the groups’ benefactors will have far less reason to keep writing the checks that keeps the movement afloat.

So, what happens next? Watch for two things to happen: one, the religious right may have no choice but to coalesce around a single, credible candidate, if only to block Giuliani. And two, watch for Dobson & Co. to take the gloves off and go after Giuliani relentlessly. These guys don’t want to bolt for a third party; they’d much prefer to stay where they are with a nominee they can live with.

Stay tuned.

Draft Roy Moore!!!!

  • they’d much prefer to stay where they are with a nominee they can live with.

    Or they could sink all of their support and money into taking back Congress and the Senate, in the long run a much more effective use of their resources.

  • If the Republicans nominate a pro-choice, pro-gay, pro-gun control, thrice-married serial adulterer who wants to invest in stem-cell research, the religious right’s masquerade will be over.

    True. And so if this DOES happen Dobson and co will want to punish the Republicans.

    Something to keep in mind about Dobson – he is not a “true believer” in anything but Dr. James Dobson. He needs to make sure his power base is secure – and part of that is maintaining the idea that he brings votes to the GOP. If they nominate someone who doesn’t have his blessing, it will be in Dobson’s best interest to make sure that nominee fails in the general election.

    Yes, that will mean a setback to all of his various “moral” crusades – he won’t care. In fact, a Dem in the White House will be doing “scary” things like legalizing stem cell research, nominating moderate-but-pro-choice judges to the Supreme Court, advancing gay rights, etc. Those “scary” things will get Dobson lots of money from credulous donors. Sure the moral crusade suffers setback after setback, but these just become fuel for Dobson’s personal aggrandizement.

    Some of the other fundagelical conservatives may be more concerned about their “moral” crusades than their fundraising, but Dobson has a big microphone and a heavy stick. He’s trying to put himself squarely in the empty spot left by Jerry Falwell’s death earlier this year. What’s more, if Giulianni wins the nomination it really won’t take much prodding to keep evangelical conservatives at home anyway – a few postcards via direct mail with Rudy Giulianni in drag on one side, Hillary Clinton on the other, and the phrase “Does it really matter which liberal New York woman sits in the White House?” will be enough to keep them at home too disgusted to vote for him. Then Dobson can sit back and say “I told you so” while the GOP moneymen kiss his ass for the next four years to the next election.

  • The message wasn’t subtle: they won’t support the Republican ticket if Rudy Giuliani is the nominee, even if that means backing a third-party candidate.

    Then the religious right should be pleased to see a Democrat in office in 2008!

  • This could make for some interesting dynamics in the coming weeks…

    The Republicans have to know that without the evangelical, anti-choice vote, they can’t win the Oval Office. They also have to know that a third-party candidate would make the loss of the WH official.

    So, what does this mean? Well, maybe it means that the attacks on Rudy begin to come more from within the party than from without – if he’s the one whose candidacy is driving the third-party talk, he’s gotta be dealt with.

    And, I think it means that the others go so heavily into pandering to the religious right that someone from another planet might think America is a theocracy, and the candidates are vying to be the nation’s religious leader. For as many who may be cheered by that development, I think there will be many more whose determination to maintain the distinction between church and state will ensure that no Republican gets anywhere near the Oval Office.

    What will screw all of this up is if the Republicans, in their attempts to out-God each other, attempt to paint the Democrats as godless heathens, the Dems get sucked into playing the game, and go into their own version of pandering, so as not to lose the religious left.

    I have a news flash for them…the religious left who identify as liberals and/or Democrats already understand that religion is personal and needs to stay on the other side of the wall that separates church from state – they don’t have to be convinced of someone’s faith in order to vote Democratic. Independents are not likely to choose based on professions of faith or promises to bring religion to government.

    Democratic candidates need to stay out of the way and let the Republicans and the Dobson-types fight it out among themselves. If they have to say anything, they might try quoting relevant passages from important documents – like the Constitution.

  • I’ll bet Dobson’s first choice of a good moral leader would be Larry Craig – just look at his voting record. Go for it James! -Kevo

  • Dobson’s little more than an antiquated heap of dogma now; he knows that this campaign will be his “last crusade.” Kennedy’s gone, and so is Falwell. Robertson’s bent more on peddling his super-shake than he is on “the Word,” and there’s little more out there that the maniacal right can lay out for the People these days.

    In short—the right blew their wad on their “Four Horsemen” (Falwell, Kennedy, Robertson, and Dobson)—and they forgot to build a nexgen quartet to continue the fight.

    The evangelical/ pentacostal/dominionist wing of the electorate isn’t big enough to control the GOP any more—they know this from the way they were used by the Bushylvanians. They’ll talk tough because the GOP cannot win without them—but the bigger issue is whether the GOP can win “with” them. Far too many have seen behind the curtain; they know that the Dobsons of the world are, as NonyNony so eloquently pointed out, “not interested in anything but Dobson.”

    And there are far too many who, should these “leaders” cave to support Ghouliani, will bolt from the ballot box in droves. Thus, a RooDee nomination sinks the party either way.

    But there’s a second factor in all of this: Dobson has already snubbed Unaware Fred. The Catholic League has already smeared Romper-Room Romney. Baptists all over the country are calling McCain a CINO because of his wreckless panderings, promoting a “flip-flip philosophy” that just won’t sell to the SBC crowd.

    This has all the makings of a political extinction event—and the general election is still more than 13 months away….

  • Romney would be a fool to try to exploit this. The evangelical base has made it clear they won’t support a Mormon either.

  • If Dobson really thinks he has all this power in the GOP, why is he worried about having Giuliani win the primaries? How many times have we heard through the MSM that the religious right shows up in the primaries in large numbers, and how the Republicans have to pander to their needs in the primaries? Using that logic it would mean that Giuliani has absolutely no chance to be chosen as the GOP candidate to face off the Democratic contender; after all they have the plurality of voters making their choice — that is according to their own mantra.

    Or… Has the MSM been fooling us all these years and the Evangelicals don’t have the votes to block Giuliani? Their ‘logic’ has it that the MSM is liberal, so they wouldn’t lie about such a think.

    I guess we’ll find out when the Primaries are over. Maybe a few more GOP myths that will be unraveling.

    Either way: good news to me.

  • The rumors out of the CNP meeting necessarily undercut Giuliani’s pitch, a fact that Romney and Thompson will no doubt be anxious to exploit. “Why nominate a candidate who’ll chase our base into a third party?” they’ll say.

    They can say it but what good will it do them? Mittens is a Mormon, was pro-choice before he was against it and he was Gov. of that pit of sin and degredation: Massachussets [sic!] when it inflicted the horrors of equal marriage rights on the United States. I know he was against it but to Das Base he should have done more to stop it, including rounding up all the judges in Mass. and having them shot. As for Freddie o’ Hollywood, he’s been divorced and hangs out with those actor types. No way.

    And, I think it means that the others go so heavily into pandering to the religious right that someone from another planet might think America is a theocracy, and the candidates are vying to be the nation’s religious leader.

    Anne @ 6

    Or the religous leaders are all vying to be King Maker. And think of what an ego stroke these guys have been getting for the past 7 years: Invited to the White House on a regular basis. As NonyNony mentions, that must be a great way to fleece even more money from the flock. I doubt they want to give up their entree to the WH and that means whoever is in there must be palatable to Das Base, and likely to invite them over for chats. I can’t see Guliani having much time for them and I think that is the root of their objection.

    Bush just wants someone, anyone, to tell him what a great guy he is and kiss his arse. Guliani doesn’t need anyone to tell him what a great guy he is, he already knows.

  • Ron Paul, with his appeal to anti-war independents, is a Republican that can beat Hillary Clinton.
    He is also pro-life.

    If the Christian Right decides to rethink its support of the Iraq War, Ron Paul could be a strong candidate.

  • There are two sets of Masters in the Republican Party: the Dobson Christatollah crowd and the Norquist Tax-Hater crowd. Rudy Mussoliani determined at the outset of his candidacy that, with the screwing around and insufficient hatred for The Gays and the rest, he couldn’t get Dobson. So he crawled as far up Grover’s pooper as he could fit, talking about tax cuts almost as much as he keeps 9/11ing 9/11 for the greater glory of 9/11. (And we all say: 9/11.)

    What would be great to see is Norquist defending Rudy against the Christatollah, turning the crack in their coalition to a full-on rupture and wasting their prospects for a decade or so. Norquist is probably too smart for that, but a guy can dream.

    What I don’t get is why the Christatollah crowd isn’t more strongly for Huckabee. Maybe he’s not hate-addled enough for their tastes?

  • Let me add to the speculation here that there may be an advantage for the Religious Right crowd to bolt.

    First of all, it’s fairly obvious they’re tools for the Republicans, a party where it’s hard to tell the incompetents from the greedy from the stupid from the perverts from the merely closeted or confused. The Republicans don’t really reflect ANYONES values, they’re a bunch of panderers who are power-hungry, and so often get caught with their literal and metaphorical pants down its not funny.

    Now I think Dobson and his ilk could take a serious chunk of the base with them – 10 to 20% of the population – with ease. Sure that doesn’t sound like much on a national level.

    But that percentage can certainly give them leverage – and a third party could let them organized with reasonable effectiveness on a local level. They might not win a presidency – but if they’re convinced they can’t, they may be happy to switch locally and/or act as power brokers.

    The other factor is sheer ego. If they can’t control the Republicans – if they feel used – making their own party will be far more satisfying to them. That party they can completely rule and leverage.

    Besides. Who says they don’t want Hillary as president? Then with a democratic congress and democratic president (who, horrors might be black or lack a Y chromosome), they can rally their base against Washington. They can even give their base the Republicans who stay behind to hate as well.

  • This is why Huckabee is rising so steadily in the polls. Just wait, he’ll be a dark horse. He’s their dream candidate, and he’s the only consistent Republican out there in terms of not being a flip-flopper.

  • Dobson has already snubbed Unaware Fred. The Catholic League has already smeared Romper-Room Romney. Baptists all over the country are calling McCain a CINO because of his wreckless panderings, promoting a “flip-flip philosophy” that just won’t sell to the SBC crowd.

    Say hello to candidate Gingrich. He may be a thrice married, serial adulterer, but he is on the record with lots and logs of social conversative votes. I’ll say it again: when Thompson’s 3rd quarter fund raising comes in lackluster, Newt will claim that is a mandate for him to run.

    Weee…if Gingrich gets the nomination, the Dems win the general. Go Newt! the people are a callin’ ya!

    • Comments are closed.