As a rule, national primary polls, taken more than three months before a single person casts an actual vote, are not reliable. Not only are polls from Iowa and New Hampshire far more relevant, but national data can change on a dime. In the 2004 Democratic race, Howard Dean was coasting to an easy victory, nationally, as late as December 2003. His nomination was practically a foregone conclusion, and yet we know how that turned out.
But Dean, at the height of his popularity, never came anywhere close to numbers like these.
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has consolidated her place as the front-runner in the contest for the Democratic presidential nomination, outpacing her main rivals in fundraising in the most recent quarter and widening her lead in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
For the first time, Clinton (N.Y.) is drawing support from a majority of Democrats — and has opened up a lead of 33 percentage points over Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.). Her popularity, the poll suggests, is being driven by her strength on key issues and a growing perception among voters that she would best represent change.
The new numbers come on the heels of an aggressive push by Clinton to dominate the political landscape. She unveiled her health-care proposal and then appeared on all five Sunday news shows on the same day — all while her husband, former president Bill Clinton, went on tour to promote a new book. Within the past month, at least one Clinton has appeared on television virtually every day, increasing the campaign’s exposure among millions of Americans.
As of now, Clinton leads nationally with 53% support, followed by Obama at 20% and Edwards at 13%. The notion that one non-incumbent candidate can break the 50% threshold in an eight-person primary is stunning. (Clinton, in other words, now enjoys more support than the other seven Democratic candidates combined.)
What’s more, Clinton is ahead with every possible demographic. According to the WaPo poll, Dems perceive her as the strongest leader (61%), the most electable in the general election (57%), the most inspiring (41%), and the best able to reduce partisanship in Washington (41%). She leads among those seeking experience, and among those seeking change. Men, women, black, white … Clinton is simply cruising. Her leads over the Democratic field were big, and they keep getting bigger.
So, is the race over? Has the train left the station? Well, maybe.
It seems unlikely, given the circumstances and Clinton’s strengths as a candidate, but there is such a thing as peaking too early.
On Monday, the Obama campaign released a subtle statement about Q3 numbers.
“Many in Washington have spent the last weeks declaring that outcome of this race to be pre-ordained, and the primary process a mere formality,” said Obama for America Campaign Manager David Plouffe. “Yet, in this quarter alone, 93,000 more Americans joined our campaign, because they desire real change and believe Barack Obama is the one candidate who can deliver it. This grassroots movement for change will not be deterred by Washington conventional wisdom because in many ways it is built to challenge it.”
Now, the Clinton campaign ended up stepping on this message a bit when it pulled in 100,000 more donors (topping Obama’s 93,000), but I think the broader message is one we’ll be hearing quite a bit: Clinton is the candidate of “Washington conventional wisdom” — and nobody likes Washington conventional wisdom.
As Michael Crowley put it:
Notice how the campaign now acknowledges the insider conventional wisdom that Hillary is the frontrunner — and is looking to take advantage of it. I think that’s smart. It’s possible that, in some weird way, Hillary’s campaign has been too successful to date. Everyone likes a winner, it’s true. But voters in Iowa (and New Hampshire) also don’t like being told what to do. I suspect that, the more Hillary pulls ahead in national polls, the more inclined some Iowa voters may be to say, “Hey wait a minute!” And the idea of an elite-media coronation really does fit in nicely with Obama’s larger message.
That’s certainly possible. But it’s equally plausible that the party establishment, donors, and the media will simply start assuming that Clinton is the nominee, generating a snowball effect that leaves the rest of the field behind.
Stay tuned.