Dobson tells Hannity he’s ready to bolt the GOP

October 9, 2007

Focus on the Family’s James Dobson, whose 2008 plans are suddenly very important to the Republican establishment, was on Fox News last night, giving Sean Hannity a chance to beg him to stay within the GOP fold, even if Rudy Giuliani is the Republican nominee.

Dobson wasn’t persuaded. (via Hot Air)

I haven’t been able to track down a full transcript, but towards the end, Hannity suggested Hillary Clinton would be worse than Rudy Giuliani, so Dobson should go with the lesser of the two. Dobson concluded, “If Rudy Giuliani wins, I’m telling you, the pro-life and pro-family movement is over. It is gone. If it’s Hillary, as bad as she is, there will be a mobilization to fight what she’s trying to do. If he is put in office by conservatives, and those who are pro-life and pro-marriage and pro-family, I’m afraid we will not recover from it.”

And that’s really the point of this ongoing story. I’ve seen several prominent progressive voices argue that there’s no way Dobson would leave the GOP, making all of the recent bluster an elaborate bluff.

It’s really not. Dobson has a movement to protect, and a Giuliani nomination would destroy it.

Matt Yglesias argued yesterday:

I seem to be the only liberal who thinks that James Dobson et. al. will probably follow through on their threat to sink Rudy Giuliani if he becomes the Republican nominee, but now we have Richard Viguerie chiming in with a similar threat. I think this business is real. If Giuliani wins the White House, the pro-life lobby will wind up looking like a paper tiger and nobody will pay them any mind in the future. The mere fact of a Democrat in the White House doesn’t threaten their power nearly as much as a pro-choice Republican would.

Matt, you’re not alone on this one. To reiterate a point I argued last week, the religious right has been coasting for over a decade, having convinced the Republican establishment that without theocratic activists, the party has no foot soldiers.

It’s been a bit of shell game that no one in the party wants to push too far. If Dobson and his allies do break ranks, it actually puts their credibility on the line in a way that’s never happened — if Giuliani can win the GOP nomination and (gasp) the presidency without so much as a hint of support from the religious right, no one will take the movement seriously again.

These religious right leaders are making bold threats, but they really don’t have any choice. Dobson & Co., not to mention their loyal followers, believe they have enormous influence in Republican circles, and can dictate the party’s direction. If the Republicans nominate a pro-choice, pro-gay, pro-gun control, thrice-married serial adulterer who wants to invest in stem-cell research, the religious right’s masquerade will be over. It will be obvious that the movement is practically powerless in the party, and the groups’ benefactors will have far less reason to keep writing the checks that keeps the movement afloat.

Dobson’s fear of Hillary pales in comparison to his self-preservation instincts.

CB, this is 1992 again, when Paul Weyrich advised the Religious Right to sit out the election. Bush lost to Clinton, and the Religious Right did its “nyah nyah, you’d have won if you had listened to us!” routine.

With Hillary Clinton in the White House, Dobson gets to say “not only would you have won if you had our support!”, he also gets to rail against Hitlery Klintoon for 8 years, which is good for “business.”

  • “Dobson’s fear of Hillary pales in comparison to his self-preservation instincts.”

    Doesn’t that point just show that the person behind the curtain is all about retaining power and not what he truly believes. One would imagine that Rudy would certainly be “the lesser of two evils” in the eyes of the religious nuts.

    “If Giuliani can win the GOP nomination and (gasp) the presidency without so much as a hint of support from the religious right, no one will take the movement seriously again.”

    Just from the point of ending the relevancy of the religious right, that would certainly be a sweet victory!

  • It’ll be interesting to see how the media treats this whole situation. Say they form some third party. Christianists or Jesusists or something like that. And they nominate Roy Moore or Brownback maybe or some other land-owning descendant of European immigrants. I’ll bet the media will, for fear of being labeled “left” or “anti-religious”, give them quite a lot of attention. They’re used to it, they have contacts, and they have their own media machine. Wasn’t some CBN guy on Russert this past weekend?

    Also, have they announced what they plan to do if Mitt the Mormon Man-meat wins the republican nomination? Anyone care to speculate on that?


  • “Dobson’s fear of Hillary pales in comparison to his self-preservation instincts.”

    Doesn’t that point just show that the person behind the curtain is all about retaining power and not what he truly believes. One would imagine that Rudy would certainly be “the lesser of two evils” in the eyes of the religious nuts.

    I don’t know. Dobson seems to think that Giulianni with a Democratic Congress would probably appoint pro-choice, right-of-center judges. I think Dobson’s right on this count – Giulianni will be more concerned about getting pro-corporate judges through the Senate approval process than getting anti-choice judges on the bench. If Giulianni succeeds at this, the rest of the GOP might see tacking left on social issues as a good strategy to rebuilding their base – and any leftward tack by the GOP on social issues is bad for the long-term viability of the social conservative vision for America.

    On the other hand, if Clinton is the president social conservatives take a short-term hit. But they retain control over the GOP’s social policy and can further their long term goals a bit better. This is like 1992 when Clinton got elected – social conservatives increased their grip on the GOP and managed to get a Republican President and a Republican Majority to Congress elected for 5 years. In exchange, they got two highly conservative judges on the bench – one of which replaced O’Connor who, while conservative, was fairly pro-choice. Long term, it might be better for the social conservative policy agenda to have a losing GOP that is beholden to them than a winning GOP that feels like it needs to tack leftward to win votes.

  • If this actually comes to be (Rudy as nominee, Dobson saying bolt), I think it may be what finally shows that Dobson and his like to perpetuate the image that they more people listen to them than really do. Remember how many millions supposedly followed Ted Haggard? If Hillary gets the Democratic nomination, it will unite the Republicans in a way that no GOP candidate can. While many true believers will follow Dobson to a third party candidate or stay home, my guess is that even more will flock to the polls because they fear Hillary more than they value their principles. Just about every election any more for people on all sides of the political spectrum ends up being a case of holding your nose and voting for the least of two evils and my guess is that many evangelicals would do just that for Rudy if it meant keeping Hillary out of the Oval Office.

  • JC (#1) is making a similar point to what Casey and I made the other day. Dobson and crowd may be looking at the political landscape and thinking that the GOP has little chance of retaining the White House in 2008, so why tie themselves to a party going over the cliff. If they seperate and the GOP loses, they can spend the next four years saying the GOP lost because it didn’t kowtow to Dobson and crowd. If they stay with the GOP and the GOP loses, they lose influence because they weren’t able to deliver enough votes to win. And as others have pointed out, if they stay while the GOP nominates someone that they disapprove of, then their influence is also diminished and they have shown the world that what they are interested in is their power and not their positions. If they manage to get a candidate that they approve of, they have reinforced their clout in the GOP and even if that candidate were to then lose, they can blame it on the war, not their social issues positions.

    I would say bolting the GOP is their best move.

  • It is about power — Dobson really should try to get Huckabee to run as a Christian Independent to split the Republican vote to demonstrate to the corporatist Republican leadership that they need the Christianists & white supremacists to win (along with suppressing urban voter turnout, etc.).

    And no one seems to motivate the wing-nut base like Hillary (strong woman threatens small penis or something, I guess — she is actually the most conservative Democrat out there)!

  • This is the best argument I have yet found for voting for Giuliani. I think that all progressives should re-register as Republicans and vote for Rudy in the primary. We don’t really need to worry which of our great candidates becomes The Candidate. Vote Rudy in your primary and then vote Democratic in the General, and whack the fundie scum really hard. What’s not to like???

  • So, if Clinton or a Democrat wins the election, the GOP in general is disgraced, even more so if the Dems strengthen their majorites in the houses of Congress. They’ll have to admit that they backed the wrong horse in Dubya. They’ll have to admit giving a rubber-stamp to executive power was a dangerously inept decision, especially now that a Dem is in the White House and the majority of the nation is shunning the Repub agenda, and the most rabid right-wingers try to gain a stronger hold on that agenda, which could make the GOP vastly unpopular for over a generation, especially if the next Administration is seen as a success…

    BUT…

    If Guiliani becomes the next preisdent, Dobson loses so much face, it just might put the final nail in the coffin of Focus on the Family.

    I don’t know who to vote for…

  • As a longtime Democrat —

    If Hillary is the Dem nominee and if Giuliani is the nominee for the Repubs, there is a serious chance I might vote for him just to spite the Christian right.

    I think a lot of people in the center will be faced with precisely this dilemma so I’m hoping that Dobson will march outside the GOP tent.

  • I don’t hate religion but I sure as hell hate what it’s done (and continues to do) to our country. One good thing about all this religious stuff – it has strengthened my atheism.

  • Wait a tick!

    Unless my view is skewed by the rather small screen, but it looks like there’s something missing from Hannity’s lapel.

  • “If Rudy Giuliani wins, I’m telling you, the pro-life and pro-family movement is over. It is gone.”

    At first read this sounds like good news for progressives. Look at it from another angle and all of a sudden this looks like a clever political ploy.

    Giuliani is genuflecting as hard as he can in front of the religious right. I have no doubt that should hell freeze over and Rudy become the prez, he’d continue to pay them homage. He will honor the myth of the religious right’s power.

    Dobson is doing what every evangelical leader loves to do: he’s foreshadowing images of damnation to rally the troops. I think Dobson is floating some test balloons to see how to play this election. If right wing religious Repubs turn on Rudy, Dodson knows he still has his mojo going. If not, he knows to bail on this election and will spend his time rallying the troops against the great Democratic satan. This all smells like games playing to me.

  • It’s just ridiculous to listen to this trite crap. No republican is going to win the WH in ’08…period. There are many other reasons why Guiliani will not win the nomination. The guy’s a joke. Mitt Romney is the least embarrassing candidate and let’s face it…the republicans have to nominate ‘somebody’ just to make a showing of it. Dobson has no place to go and he is just trying to ensure Guliani doesn’t win the nomination…that’s his only show for now to prove he’s still valid. Screw all this GOP bull…it jsut doesn’t matter.
    We need to focus on the right Dem we want in office…not who the GOP finds credible for dems to have in office. The 30% dead enders is this Dobson/Robertson crowd and they have shown their true colors already. We are just sick of their garbage..look what it’s gotten us so far…they loved Bush remember.

  • Y’know… a friend once told me years ago (at least 15 years ago) he wished the “religious wrong” would leave the Republican party and show their true colors. He remembered when real Republicans like Barry Goldwater were true conservatives not neocons.

    So I say, let Dobson take his marbles and go play somewhere else and let them create their own “Pius Party” and let them show the world who they truly are and what they truly stand for and let’s see how long they last as hold outs from the 17th century.

    Let the true Republicans once again become the party of smaller, but efficient, and less meddlesome government. Fiscally conservative. Socially progressive. Use the taxes we ALREADY pay to improve the infrastructure; schools, libraries, hospitals, roadways, etc. and stop spending it all on military crap.

    Educate the people and you won’t need to go to war… in fact you won’t *want* to go to war if you understand and accept other cultures for what they are… other cultures. That’s all, why are they so afraid of anything or anyone different from themselves?

    p.s. The answer is: orange.

  • JC nailed this right off the bat. Just like every successful lie has a nugget of truth in it, whacko fundies have enough sense to read the writing on the wall and publicly oppose Rudy. They’re not gonna risk anything on a candidate that can’t win, and even if he does win, why would they care? Never mind the benefits they’ll reap from a Rudy presidency, pointed out already. They’ve been wrong about every important issue in history and yet have no problem maintaining a big enough minority to keep the coffers full and the media cowed. Nothing they ever do will change the minds of their true believers, just as nothing Bush will ever do can change the minds of his 30%ers–at leat, not while he’s president.

    And as we’ve learned by now, an activist 30% is all you need to stay in power.

  • A true Christian who was actually a believer would examine the lives of the two candidates and decide which of the two have the most integrity and whose life lines up with the teachings of Jesus. A true “Bible believing” christian would have a hard time selecting Rudy. Hillary on the other hand has practiced forgiveness in her single marriage, and has worked all of her life for the betterment of society and children in particular, and has put her faith into action.

    Her problem is her vote on the war. Anyone who is pro war and especially a preemptive war would probably offend the sensibilities of any true believer.

    I think Dobson has a problem, and if he is ready to bolt from the GOP, it may be that his base is ready to bolt from him. His philosophies and his willingness to submit to the GOP do not necessarily line up with the core teachings of Christ, especially the endless commitment to the war in Iraq. Couple that with the Bush veto of children’s health care and we may find more than a few foot soldiers ready to bail out of the GOP. We still have abortion on demand in the USA, so what has George W Bush delivered past a mountain of debt and scandal? Even a right wing crazy can connect the dots.

  • The Republican Ten Commandments:

    1. You shall not worship any other god
    (God being the almighty dollar)

    2.You shall not make a graven image.
    (Instead, hire a private firm to do this for you, that way you have plausible deniability)

    3.You shall not take the name of God in vain.
    (Our God. All others don’t matter)

    4.You shall not break the Sabbath.
    (10 cent a day laborers don’t count)

    5.You shall not dishonor your parents.
    (Unless they happen to be liberals, progressives, democrats, black, or brown people)

    6.You shall not murder.
    (But you are allowed to invade, occupy, kill and destroy if you are spreading freedom)

    7.You shall not commit adultery
    (Unless you’re toe-tapping with a wide stance in a public restroom)

    8. You shall not steal.
    (This is what all those lawyers and stock brokers do for you)

    9. You shall not commit perjury.
    (This is why you never testify under oath)

    10. You shall not covet.
    (If you want something, just take it, that way you aren’t coveting)

  • Here’s the plan for the 2008 elections. Hillary, Barack or John win the presidency. The House stays Democratic. The Senate has at least 60 Dems plus Lieberman. Congress authorizes two additional Supreme Court justices and the pres appoints the two extra which of course would be liberal bent. This with the current four liberals, to be replaced with other liberals as they retire, nullify Roberts and the four others who tend to vote conservative. File complete.

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