Forgive me, but I’m a sucker for articles about professed Bush voters announcing they’re sick of him and will vote Dem in 2004. I don’t care how anecdotal these articles are. If I see one, I’m not only going to read it, I’m going to like it.
The latest was a front-page item in yesterday’s Washington Post about voters in Maryland who’ve been voting Republican, but are too fed up with Bush to back him again.
In recent years, Stoney Creek has become home to some of Maryland’s most conservative Democrats. Although they have remained registered Democrats, precinct results show they have crossed party lines in increasing numbers to support George H.W. Bush in 1992, Robert J. Dole in 1996, George W. Bush in 2000 and Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. two years ago.
Last week, though, as club members prepared for Tuesday’s Maryland presidential primary, there were strong signs that the swing voters are considering a return to their Democratic roots — and taking a serious look at Sens. John F. Kerry (Mass.) and John Edwards (N.C.). Anger with President Bush over the war in Iraq and the loss of jobs to factories overseas are driving the change, they said.
“We have got to get a Democrat back in Washington,” said an impassioned Richard Ames, 65, who said he will vote for Kerry on Tuesday.
Club president Ames, a retired trucker from Orchard Beach, said he wasn’t fond of Bill Clinton, and he still snarls about former governor Parris N. Glendening (D), calling him “Spendening.” But none of that compares to how he feels about George W. Bush.
“I can’t stand him,” he said. “It’s mainly because of the Iraqi situation. There are young men over there dying every day. It’s like Vietnam all over again.”
There are reasons to be a little skeptical about articles like these. They’re obviously based on anecdotal evidence, making them unreliable in predicting election outcomes. I get that.
But there’s a name for folks like the members of the Stoney Creek Club — “Reagan Democrats.” And if Bush is losing them, he’s losing a constituency he’ll need to win in November.
The article is filled with complaints from local Marylanders, each of whom voted GOP in recent national elections, but now believe Bush is out of touch and unwilling to represent their interests. These voters are still inclined to agree with Bush on a variety of social issues, including gun control, gay rights, and abortion, but they’re rejecting Bush’s approach to government and anxious to replace him.
Ultimately, finding voters in Maryland who plan to vote against Bush on Election Day may seem irrelevant. No one seriously considers it a competitive state, with Gore beating Bush in 2000 in Maryland by over 16 points.
But the article nevertheless identifies a group of classic Reagan Democrats who are — slowly but surely — returning to the party and rejecting the GOP. And if that happens in large numbers this year, Bush will be heading back to Texas next January.