For the last several decades, the Republican Party’s presidential nominating process has been relatively predictable. At least since the advent of the modern primary system, with the possible exception of 1980, the GOP nominee has either been an incumbent president, incumbent vice president, or the guy embraced early on as the establishment’s choice. Bruising primary fights are exceedingly rare, in large part because the Republicans’ choice is practically agreed upon in advance.
But that’s clearly not the case this time around. Indeed, it’s actually quite an oddity that the political world has no idea who’s favored to win the GOP nomination.
For the first time in nearly 30 years, there is no breakaway front-runner for the Republican nomination as the first votes of Campaign 2008 loom, and a new Washington Post-ABC News poll underscores how open the GOP race remains.
Former New York City mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani maintains a double-digit lead over his main rivals, but most of his supporters back his candidacy only “somewhat,” and he has yet to gain momentum among key primary voting groups or to distinguish himself as the best candidate for the party. Adding to the murkiness of the picture is that Republicans continue to be less satisfied with their candidate options than Democrats are with theirs.
In the new poll, a third of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said they would vote for Giuliani if their state’s primary or caucus were held today. That puts him 14 percentage points ahead of Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) and 17 points ahead of former senator Fred D. Thompson (Tenn.).
Eleven percent said they would vote for former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, and 9 percent support former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee.
Not since 1979 has the leading Republican candidate had less than 40 percent support in national polls in the November heading into an election year.
One could make a plausible case for any of the GOP’s top five to emerge as the nominee, but just as importantly, one could just as easily argue that none of these guys can actually pull ahead before the Republican convention next summer.
And you know what that means: bring on the brokered convention!
Kevin Drum raises the specter of the spectacle this morning:
I know I’m dreaming and it’s not going to happen, but I would so love to see next year’s primary season produce a brokered convention that ended up in brutal internecine warfare between the Republican Party’s sane and insane wings. On national TV. Sort of like 1968 except with shorter hair. Wouldn’t that be great?
Why, yes; yes it would.
If a gambler decided to put money on the Democratic race, the smart money has to be on Hillary Clinton. But what does the same gambler do on the other side of the aisle? There’s Rudy Giuliani, who’s trailing in each of the early primary/caucus states, and who looks less and less sane as the campaign unfolds. There’s Mitt Romney, who’s well positioned in Iowa and New Hampshire, but almost nowhere else, and whose faith tradition remains a high hurdle in his party. There’s Fred Thompson, who seems to have squandered his pre-announcement excitement, and who is struggling to impress the GOP faithful. There’s John McCain, who still has serious money problems, and who is trailing badly in all of the early contests. And there’s Mike Huckabee, who has practically no money, and whose only real support seems to be in newsrooms across the country.
Sure, a brokered convention is highly unlikely, but it’s hardly out of the question, right? Romney wins the first couple, but starts to wear thin. Thompson takes South Carolina, McCain, Romney, and Giuliani split a bunch of Feb. 5 states, Huckabee excels in the South … and the next thing you know it’s April and no one has any idea what’s going to happen.
A guy can dream….