Following up on an earlier item, New Hampshire’s Union Leader reports today that voters in the first two Republican contests have received phone calls with negative messages about Mitt Romney, “his Mormon faith and the Vietnam War-era military deferments he received while serving as a missionary in France.” The same calls asked about Romney’s sons not serving in the military, the fact that Mormons did not allow blacks as bishops into the 1970s, and the assertion that Mormons believe the Book of Mormon is superior to the Bible.
Western Wats, a Utah-based company, placed the calls that initially sound like a poll but then pose questions that cast Romney in a harsh light, according to those who received the calls. In politics, this type of phone surveying is called “push polling” – contacting potential voters and asking questions intended to plant a message in voters’ minds, usually negative, rather than gauging peoples’ attitudes.
A spokesman for the company would not comment on whether it made the calls. “Western Wats has never, currently does not, nor will it ever engage in push polling,” its client services director, Robert Maccabee, said in a statement released Thursday night.
Now, it’s probably worth noting that this doesn’t sound like an actual push poll. A push poll isn’t a poll at all — it “has no ‘sample’ (in any statistical sense), no data collected, no analysis. It just amounts to someone making phone calls to spread a nasty rumor under the guise of a survey.”
These calls in New Hampshire and Iowa sound like something else — a campaign testing various messages, gauging public reaction. In this case, whichever campaign commissioned the poll probably wanted to know whether attacking Romney’s faith and his decision to avoid military service as a young adult will resonate with Republican voters. That’s unpleasant, but it’s not a push poll.
But in this case, it might have been legally problematic. As the Union Leader noted, “New Hampshire law requires that political advertising, including phone calls, identify the candidate being supported. No candidate was identified in the calls.”
An investigation was launched this afternoon. One can’t help but wonder a) which campaign was involved; and b) whether it’ll have an effect if the culprit is identified.
New Hampshire’s attorney general is investigating phone calls to voters that pretend to be opinion polls but then undercut presidential contender Mitt Romney and his Mormon faith — and make favorable statements about Republican rival John McCain.
McCain says they’re not his doing and he wants them stopped. Romney says it’s a religious attack and “un-American.”
McCain said of the phone calling, “It is disgraceful, it is outrageous, and it is a violation, we believe, of New Hampshire law.” His campaign asked the attorney general to investigate, and McCain, campaigning Friday in Colorado, asked other candidates to join in the request.
One McCain adviser, Chuck Douglas, said “we believe it is being done by one of the other campaigns. We don’t know which one.”
Deputy New Hampshire Attorney General Bud Fitch said New Hampshire has never prosecuted a case involving such calls but was moving forward. “Generally, these investigations can take at least several days and sometimes several weeks,” Fitch said.
So, simply in the interest of wild, baseless speculation, there are several options to choose from:
* McCain did it — His campaign vehemently denies involvement, but the survey reportedly involved questions regarding both McCain and Romney. He desperately needs to win in New Hampshire, where Romney enjoys a big lead.
* A McCain-affiliated group did it — We know some former McCain aides and supporters are reportedly off running an independent operation in South Carolina. Maybe they’re spreading out, while McCain maintains plausible deniability?
* Giuliani did it — As far as I can tell, his campaign has not yet commented on this, but Western Wats has had a working relationship with the Tarrance Group, and the Tarrance Group is now working for Giuliani. For that matter, Romney is the only candidate standing between Giuliani and a victory in New Hampshire right now. A Tarrance Group representative has already denied any involvement.
* Some other candidate did it — Most of the second- and third-tier candidates couldn’t afford to pull a stunt like this. Conceivably, Fred Thompson could, but he’s not fighting that hard in New Hampshire, and his campaign has already issued an unambiguous denial.
* Romney did it — Any good campaign tests negative messages about itself, in order to better understand what kind of attacks will be effective. Maybe Team Romney was doing this for themselves? And now that this is a story, is trying to milk it for some sympathy?
Assuming it was one of Romney’s rivals, this could prove to be a big deal if the culprit is identified before the primary. Stay tuned.