The presidential race will continue to dominate the political world in the coming months, but there are plenty of great congressional races that warrant attention as well. For right now, here are some updates on three of my favorites, all open-seat Senate campaigns created by a Republican retirement.
In Colorado, last week’s retirement announcement from Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R) set off a quick chain of events as candidates scrambled to prepare and position themselves for a race that few expected to be competitive. Not unexpectedly, Colorado Gov. Bill Owens said he’s “considering” jumping into the race and confirmed that the White House is encouraging him. He added that he’ll take “a week to 10 days” to make up his mind, but there are some rumors that the announcement could come as early as tomorrow.
It’s not entirely clear if Owens would have the field to himself if he does make the leap. Rep. Scott McInnis (R) is leaving the House anyway and has admitted that he’s thinking about the Senate campaign. Reps. Bob Beauprez, Tom Tancredo, Marilyn Musgrave, State Treasurer Mike Coffman, and former Rep. Bob Schaffer all appear to be waiting for word from Owens. If the Gov. decides to forgo the race, expect a free-for-all that features at least four serious GOP candidates in advance of the state’s August primary.
The Dem picture in Colorado isn’t much clearer. Rep. Mark Udall (D) wanted to run, but didn’t think he could beat Campbell and recommitted to his House seat. With Campbell’s retirement, Udall is having second thoughts, announcing over the weekend that he’s the “best candidate for the Democratic Party in November.” The Dem who was willing to challenge Campbell all along — former software entrepreneur Rutt Bridges — was recruited by DC Dems to run when no one else would. Bridges remains committed to the race. We can also expect to see Colorado Attorney General Ken Salazar and Rep. Diana DeGette in the mix.
Illinois is another open-seat race that Dems need to pick up if they have any chance at all of taking back the Senate. Unfortunately, this one’s been a little ugly lately in advance of next week’s primary.
Among the GOP, a relatively crowded slate of candidates, composed mostly of political neophytes, appears to have a frontrunner: investment banker Jack Ryan. A Chicago Tribune poll released today showed Ryan with a large lead over his Republican rivals, including dairy owner Jim Oberweis and businessman Andy McKenna Jr. Ryan’s divorce from Jeri Ryan (Seven of Nine from Voyager) raised some questions about his candidacy and background, but so far, he’s survived the controversy.
Businessman Blair Hull hasn’t been as fortunate. Hull appeared to be the leading Dem in recent months, but has since faltered after reports surfaced that he had abused his ex-wife during a messy divorce. As a result, his once-sizable lead has disappeared. The Tribune poll showed State Sen. Barack Obama leading the pack with 33%, state Comptroller Dan Hynes second with 19%, and Hull trailing with 16%.
(Just as an aside, if Obama, a Harvard-educated lawyer, wins the primary and the election in November, he’ll be only the second African-American man ever elected to the Senate, following Edward Brooke from Massachusetts in 1967. Considering there are exactly zero African Americans in the Senate now, Obama would help bring some desperately needed diversity to the world’s most deliberative body.)
And lastly, in Oklahoma, another race that was supposed to be a boring Republican blowout is looking more and more like a race to watch. Among the Dems, Rep. Brad Carson continues to look strong.
The GOP race is likely to be a lot more interesting. Oklahoma City mayor Kirk Humphreys (R) was the leading candidate, but when polls showed Carson in the lead, Republicans in DC got nervous and convinced former Rep. Tom Coburn to get into the race. There’s a bit of a fissure within the state GOP right now between those who were committed to Humphreys and are sticking with him vs. others who are switching allegiance to Coburn.
And for those of us worried that Coburn may keep this seat in Republican hands in November, my friend Darrell prepared an excellent analysis on why Coburn may not be the threat he’s cracked up to be.
It’s not unrealistic to think the Dems can win all three of these races, though even two out of three would be a huge help in getting to 51.