Open Thread — Iowa Caucuses Edition

As it turns out, I won’t be at my desk when the results of the Iowa caucuses are released, so here’s an open thread to a) make predictions; b) highlight results; c) brag about your candidate’s success; and/or d) complain about your candidate coming up short.

As for what to expect while you’re expecting, the caucuses are set to begin right about now in 1,781 precincts across the lovely Hawkeye State. Results should start coming in about an hour from now, with Republican results coming first (the GOP caucuses work slightly differently than the Dems’).

For the mechanics of the process, I’d encourage folks to check out Zeitgeist’s post from this morning, which was very helpful.

As for checking results as they’re available, there are literally dozens of sites that will be posting the numbers, though I know the Politico will be keeping an updated tally. Also check the Iowa Democratic Party and the Iowa GOP, both of which will be publishing results. (In fact, the IDP’s site will probably be the single most detailed resource available, publishing precinct, county, and state information, updated, from what I hear, every minute.)

And with that, have at it. The floor is yours….

Gravel vs. Keyes!

  • Anyone watch the Ron Paul call-in show on CSPAN-2? Caucus-goers are streaming into the Republican Caucus in Carroll, Iowa. Now a half-hour late.

  • If you use Tweety’s The Math, then so far 70% of Dems reject Edwards, 70% of Dems reject Hillary and 70% of Dems reject Obama.

  • Okay, its only 10% of the precincts reporting but according to Politico, Romney hasn’t even broken into single digits. Perhaps, you really can’t buy love.

  • What just happened on the Politico? It went from 15% Republican precincts reporting back to 2%, and Romney went from 0% to 24%.

  • we have 361 at our precinct – four years ago it was less than half of that. running slow. it appears clinton has 89, Obama has 146, Edwards 76. i do not think anyone else is viable on first pass.

  • Overall, for first time Obama just overtook HRC into second spot, just behind Edwards. Now top three are within 0.32 of each other with 461 prescincts reporting.

  • If it sounds too good to be true…I tried to check the GOP site, but they seem to be overwhelmed with traffic. Quite a horse race on the Dem side.

  • http://iowagop.net/ is not loading…
    Cheap GOP bastards.
    Probably got three old windoze servers powered by underfed hamsters…

    On the other side…
    Hillary is shrinking shrinking shrinking…

    Trying hard here not to go full throttle on my chortle…

  • it looks like Obama will win the realign. HRC is gettin some Biden. my early estimate is Obama 4, HRC 2 and Edwards 1. we have a measly 7 delegates

  • Hillary is shrinking shrinking shrinking…
    She’s got such a large lead nationally that a loss of a couple of points won’t be enough to count her out.

    In the meantime, Obama for the win!
    861 precincts
    33.93% Obama
    31.83% Edwards
    31.56% Clinton

  • 1230 out of 1781 precincts

    34.96% Obama
    31.26% Edwards
    30.96% Clinton

    And Obama is pulling away!

  • NBC is projecting Obama as the Dem winner with 71 percent of precincts reporting. So ends the first inning?

  • Obama now over 35 percent, with 1286 in… I keep waiting for Hillary to pass Edwards (who had the advantage of the rural precincts coming in first), but it hasn’t happened yet. She’s actually dropping close to 30 percent.

    My theory has always been that if Not-Hillary won early, her support would deflate. Looks like we’ll get a chance to see if that’s right.

  • Delicious. If Clinton takes 3rd place (even if it’s only by a thread) the media will nail her.

  • “Looks like Iowa won’t change a thing on the Dem side.”

    I don’t know; did anyone expect Clinton to come in third, as it appears she now might? That could very well reinvigorate Obama’s and Edwards’s supporters elsewhere, and might cause voters who had viewed Clinton as the inevitable nominee to reconsider their options. On the other hand, Clinton could benefit from the Obama and Edwards camps going at each other rather than teaming up on her. Voters concerned about Obama’s electability would likely be encouraged by the fact that he won by several points against the presumptive frontrunner in a largely white, relatively conservative state. I think the dynamics of the race may change a bit after this, though it’s still anyone’s race (“anyone” being restricted to Obama, Edwards, and Clinton).

  • Glad we don’t have to wait all night for the results, but I see the race has been called for Obama.

  • Right now the numbers say 65% of Iowans prefer someone other than Hillary.
    That’s just phenomenal.
    She didn’t pass their sniff test.
    Meanwhile…
    Obama just punched through the 35% threshold…
    Very exciting.
    I sense a change in momentum…

  • Does anyone know how many people caucused for the Democrats and how many for Republicans?

    And does anyone have any idea what the numbers were for previous years?

  • ROTFLMAO said:

    Right now the numbers say 65% of Iowans prefer someone other than Hillary.

    Er, that can be said about any of the three.

  • Does anyone know how many people caucused for the Democrats and how many for Republicans?

    Based on the CNN results, it looks like about 115,000 for the republicans this year. I imagine it’s quite a bit more for the democrats.

  • I think the most interesting thing is that in both contests, the establishment candidate lost.

    I remember over a year ago when the first talk of Hillary getting in the race came up, us blogizens were wondering who in the world would vote for her. Then the polling all suggested she was a prohibitive favorite, and we all sighed with resignation. Now she looks beatable after all – we should have trusted our first instincts.

  • Last I heard, about 200,000 Dems turned out vs 115,000 in 04. Some precincts were triple.

  • Hillary barely above 30%, Obama edging near 37%. Since Edwards hasn’t got the money to go the distance, this has got to be really bad news for Hil.

  • our precinct was triple – and i live in a predominantly repub suburb. a friend of mine who also lives in different suburb had over 500 attendees at caucus.

    in the end ours was Obama 3, Clinton 2, Edwards 2.

    i will follow-up tomorrow, but i have to say that at this level of turnout (at least when the party is not prepared for it) several of the defenses i made of caucuses start to break down. while i loved to see the size and the energy, it was a very different experience than in all of my prior years (i think i mentioned this in a post earlier this week that the whole campaign was different from the “Iowa experience” of years past – it lost its intimacy due to massive crowd sizes and high security.)

    hopefully our loss in that regard in the nation’s gain – if it is a bellweather of massive Democratic and Dem supporting energy and turnout in the general.

  • I realize most people don’t care about the dark side but it looks like Giuliani is a distant 6th. Let’s hope it kills him.

    Thompson is slightly ahead of McCain for third. 13.73% to 13.17%
    Paul is a ‘respectable 5th’ at 10.22%.

    I never knew ‘respectable’ and ‘5th’ could go together.

    what does any of this mean for the ‘publicans?

  • I wish people would stop counting Edwards out because of money – he was hugely outspent by both, and is still in it.

    The problem, as I see it, is how the media reacts – treating this one race as “it.”

  • So, Fred’s probably relieved, knowing that he still doesn’t have work too hard to have a respectable showing.

  • I wish people would stop counting Edwards out because of money – he was hugely outspent by both, and is still in it.

    No he’s not. The media was treating this as a 3-way race, while the blogosphere wa so damned sure that Edwards was going to win. Coming 7 points ahead under such a narrative is incredible, and given how well he’s currently doing in New Hampshire, Obama is almost guaranteed to win now.

    Iowa was the one place where Edwards was competitive, if anything he’ll probably just be a spoiler in other states.

  • The Republicans have been pretty disciplined about not going after Obama so far. Instead, they’ve done the bare minimum: don’t let a guy named “Obama” go throwing his name around in a race for president without people “accidentally” tripping over it and calling him Osama, or remarking that it would be wrong or weird for us to have a president with that name. Their goal for now is to make sure he gets the nomination, not Hillary, then, as time goes on, they’ll go full-bore against Obama, if he gets the nomination.

    If he gets nominated, it’ll be interesting to see what shape that campaign against him takes.

  • It appears to be a huge win for McCain and a small win for Huckabee.

    It is a fairly significant loss for Paul and a minor loss for Giuliani

    And a HUGE loss for Romney

    Obviously, for the Democrats it is a big win for Obama and a big loss for Clinton although Clinton is still the odds on favorite to win the nomination.

    Edwards is basically dead. He is slightly ahead of Al Gore. The odds against either of them are about 70 to 1

  • Just left my first caucus. Drove 6 hours to make it back to Iowa City to vote. Voted for Obama. In my precinct–6 delegates for Obama, 3 for Edwards, 2 for Clinton. My precinct is right next to the University. There seemed to be a lot of students in the audience.

  • I wish people would stop counting Edwards out because of money – he was hugely outspent by both, and is still in it.

    As a candidate, Edwards was my favorite among the big three. But the reality is he’s shot his wad, and there’s no other opportunity for him to pull ahead. He’s out.

    I’m still amazed at the beating Obama is giving Clinton. Over 7 points difference last I checked.

  • I predict Obama at 37% and Huckabee at 34%. Something like that. Just wait and see.

    Some people predict the future; I predict the past.

  • if HRC drops much farther, the media will treat it as 3rd instead of a tie for 2nd.
    if that happens, she and Edwards are both in trouble and Obama is the clear front runner (lets see if that changes how he is treated and how he handles that role).

    on the D side, i would expect Dodd to drop out immediately. Biden may wait for a northeastern test first, and Richardson may wait until Nevada (if they can afford it), but otherwise they are both gone as well. because Kucinich spends no money, he can stay, but no one will notice.

    i wonder if third keeps Frederick of Hollywood in or not?

  • Their goal for now is to make sure he gets the nomination, not Hillary, then, as time goes on, they’ll go full-bore against Obama, if he gets the nomination. – Swan
    No, this isn’t a republican conspiracy, this is the youth vote turning out fro Obama. Given how the youth vote was literally the only thing that prevented Kerry with a landslide (electoral) loss in 2004, we’ll carry Obama to victory in a few months.

    It is a fairly significant loss for Paul and a minor loss for Giuliani — neil wilson
    Giuliani was supposed to be the frontrunner, yet he’s finishing in 6th place, behind even Paul. He’s dead in the water now, and we can mock Paulies too.

  • this is becoming an Obama blowout – he is now well above 37% and Clinton and Edwards are both now under 30%.

  • It is a positive thing to see the interest and the energy – I think this bodes well for Democrats, overall.

  • on the R side, this is nothing but bad for McCain – finishing behind Freddy; for Paul who failed to come in a surprise position of 3rd or 4th – the miracle didn’t materialize and he will now go into free fall; and for JulieAnnie at a stunningly pathetic 4%. So much for “America’s Mayor.” I’m not sure he’d make America’s Dogcatcher.

    The only unfortunate thing is that we may still have to put up with Fred for a bit longer. He annoys me. Then again, they all do.

  • Of course, there’s this (from NYT):

    By Chris Suellentrop
    Tags: Iowa

    One more reason to watch the Orange Bowl instead: Dick Polman, national political columnist for the Philadelphia Inquirer, notes on his personal blog that the winner of the Iowa caucuses almost never becomes president of the United States.

    “[I]ncumbents aside, exactly one victorious Iowa candidate –­ George W. Bush in 2000 –­ has ever gone on to win the presidency in the same year,” Polman writes. “Even though Carter got an historic boost in Iowa, on the way to his November election, he actually finished second in Iowa – behind ‘Uncommitted.’”

  • Obama has cracked through 37%…
    Hillary has cracked through 30%…
    That’s huge.
    The race itself is now officially cracked open…

    If Hillary had gotten second she could have saved some face.
    Triangulated a tourniquet or something…
    But now?
    Not a plague of pundits and their poll numbers can put this primary race back together again as planned.

    It is open.
    OPEN!

    Suddenly charisma might just matter again.
    Suddenly the public getting excited about a young Democrat and politics might just happen again.

    I hoped to live to see it again…
    I am hoping.
    But in the meanwhile: It’s OPEN!

    Take that and put in in your pipe!

  • I really wanted Edwards to do well here – if he can hold onto second, even by a slim margin, all it probably does is boost Obama. At one time, I was hoping for an Edwards/Obama ticket, which I thought would rock – but the front-runner is not going to take a back seat in anyone’s car. Could it be Obama/Edwards?

  • Edwards looks like he’s going to finihs half a point above Clinton.

    Clinton is at 29.47% — she really needs to get at 29.50% or more so if they round to the nearest whole number, she can claim a tie with Edwards. She’s only got 81 precincts to do it though.

  • Am listening to Edwards speaking to his supporters – and while I know you all will say that of course he has to keep sounding like a “real” candidate, he does not sound like he is conceding anything. The fact is that change did win – both Edwards and Obama represent change – it just happens that I prefer the Edwards variety.

  • Nautilator, if the Republicans intentionally withheld from criticizing Obama while they want after Hillary with faux-liberal trolls on the blogs (Where is the criticism of Obama and Edwards on the blogs? If you think at all the Republicans use these kinds of trolls, why weren’t commenters who hold themselves out as liberals criticizing them at all? Think about that.) and pundits did the same, then it would tend to have some effect on the Iowa caucus.

    Anyway, this is a great step forward for African Americans that an African American won the Democratic Iowa caucus, and African Americans and everyone else have a reason to be proud tommorrow. Barack Obama is a great man.

  • i gotta give credit where credit is due: the DM Register/Selzer Iowa Poll earned its reputation. I still want to see the attendee profile, but they were the only ones showing Obama up by 7 points and sure enough. . .

    the one part i enjoy about being wrong on this? the little iowa based company beat the heck out of the big national media and pollsters!

  • I wrote this a while ago, but I’m having trouble the TCB tonight and I’ve got to play catch up…

    …but i have to say that at this level of turnout (at least when the party is not prepared for it) several of the defenses i made of caucuses start to break down… -Z

    Well, I hope you had a good time, anyway, but I do find it a bit ironic that by being so successful and engaging more people, it has lost some of what made it so great for you. I do hope you’re correct about turnout predictions in November.

    I’m sure all in all you had an experience you’ll never forget, and I can’t wait to hear more about it tomorrow.

  • The only unfortunate thing is that we may still have to put up with Fred for a bit longer. He annoys me. Then again, they all do. -Z

    He’s less annoying if you think of him as Vigo the Carpathian. Then he’s just an angry painting.

  • Swan, if you had visited OpenLeft, Taylor Marsh, or MyDD — especially MyDD — within the past week or two you would’ve seen tons of liberals throwing everything they could at Obama. As cruch time approached, Edwards became the blogosphere’s darling that they rabidly had to prop up.

  • Does anyone have any ideas about the number of people who voted? I would be very interested in seeing how many republicans and dems turned out. If 5 goopers voted and 1000 dems did…. That is a number I would like to see.

  • Jeez people, this isn’t the presidential election. Many rise and fall regardless of some preliminary caucus’ results. What amazes me is the frenzy the MSM is in about this; they are trying to define the framework, and people take the bait. Iowa is a red state, always has been, and is afforded undue influence. This race is perhaps the longest in duration in history. Keep in mind the candidates, at least for the Democrats, have been well defined for over a year. Sit back, relax, there is a long way to go.
    Go Edwards by the way.

  • Swan @ comment 46: Your analysis is seriously flawed. Fox News, the Carlyle Group’s propoganda wing, has been accusing Obama of being a Jihadist plant for almost a year. Just ask Glenn Beck…

  • Even though the Dem website is still trickling in the last 62 precincts, is there any reason to think the finish won’t hold at Obama, Edwards, Clinton? I’m just thinking that with both Clinton and Edwards speaking to their supporters, the campaigns have to already know the results – right?

    Also, I may have missed it, but what happens with uncommitted delegates?

  • “I prefer the Edwards variety”

    The variety in which the multi-millionaire lawyer and hedge fund maven tries to pander the little people.

  • citizen pain, how is Iowa a red state? It went Clinton twice and then Gore. Kerry narrowly lost, but now we have a Dem governor (for the third straight term), both chambers of the state legis are now Dem, and as of the 2006 elections, the majority of our congressional delegation is Dem. all of those are narrow margin elections – we are really a very purple state that is presently a little blue.

  • Anne – the campaigns may know a little more than the party officials, but not by much. The real issue is that nothing in those last few precints can meaningfully change anything. As for uncommitted delegates, they go to the District Conventions uncommitted, at which point they can (a) commit to someone or (b) try and send one or more uncommitted delegates to the State Convention.

    In 1976, “Uncommitted” was the winner of the Democratic precinct caucuses. Carter was a surprise 2nd place.

  • is there any reason to think the finish won’t hold at Obama, Edwards, Clinton? — Anne
    1722 out of 1281 precincts — 96.7% — have reported. The numbers may settle a little, Chris Dodd may pick up one more delegate, but it’s pretty much over at this point.

  • Zeit: I guess I must have assumed Iowa was red; must be the Diebold effect. That or MSNBC’s current coverage.

  • zeitgest:

    it seems they nailed turn-out (212,000 with 91% reporting; they said 220,000), nailed 1st timers (56% according to entrance polls; they predicted 60%), and nailed Obama’s margin. Also, there’s a lot of anecdotal evidence about lots of Indies and even some GOPers showing up, but I haven’t seen those #s yet.

    It seems Selzer got it near perfect. Good for her.

  • Interesting: while Edwards is 1/2 percent ahead of Clinton in state delegates, CNN is projecting Clinton as having one more national delegate than Edwards. This would make sense if they were projecting all 57 – i.e. including superdelegates, who generally favor Clinton – but that is not the case here. Not sure what gives (although I somewhat disagree with their characterization of 45 delegates chosen “related” to the precinct caucuses; I would not put the state convention at large slate, which I believe is 10 delegates, in that category).

  • I wish people would stop counting Edwards out because of money – he was hugely outspent by both, and is still in it

    Absolutely.

    More importantly, I am reasured by two main outcomes tonight:

    1) huge increase in caucus participation for the democrats!

    2) huckabee’s win, and McCain’s presmumptive 4th place finish

    Dems are motivated, and Republican’ts are fractured.

    Hooray!

  • Hickabee’s showing is definately a good thing for him, but with even people like Limbaugh, Coulter, and Malkin coming out against him, conservatives will probably try and get around Romney or McCain in New Hampshire…

  • doubtful @ 63:

    the very short version – when turnout gets massive (or at least well beyond what the caucuses are staffed for) ironically it moves towards being a primary. the room gets too big and full to build networks, it takes long enough that no one wants to stay to hash out the platform or vote for party committee representatives (also a function of indies who aren’t really invested in the party being a larger component), etc. all that is left is an of-necessity well regimented couting off of supporters.

    back in 84 and 88, for example, i was at much less attended caucuses and the majority of attendees stayed literally for hours after presidential preference writing and arguing over platform planks. as a matter of grassroots involvement in what the party would stand for, that rocked.

  • Incidentally, I learned on the radio earlier tonight that caucus is an Algonquin word meaning ‘meeting of the chiefs.’

    Stick that in your Jeopardy repertoire.

  • Check out Intratrade.com — The betting markets are showing McCain, Huckabee and Obama are the big incremental winners this evening. The clear Losers are Romney, Edwards and Clinton.

    Anne — I will vote Obama before I vote Huckster

  • How can McCain be a winner on these results unless he can clearly separate himself from Freddy (and in the right direction)? I need to find me some of those Intrade McCain buyers – they’re ripe for taking a suckers bet.

  • I’m pleased as punch by both results. I can’t wait to see the right-wing punditry explode tomorrow because of Huck’s win. Hewett’s blog is already fun.

  • Edo, are you referring to Iowa? On the current numbers there is no realistic way Clinton can catch Edwards for second. The best she can hope is that the media portrays it as a tie which, essentially, it is: out of a combined 1450 district convention delegates, Edwards’ advantage is 12 delegates – the equivalent of one large precinct.

  • People like Rush could be in big trouble because the three candidates they don’t like are McCain, Huckabee and Paul and they got about 57% of the vote between them.

    Then idiots like Hannity with the ‘stop Hillary express’ and the all powerful Clintons are going to have to figure out how to change their tune.

    BTW, Edwards really is dead. He barely finished in front of Clinton and finished WAY behind Obama. Edwards needed to win to have a chance. A lousy 2nd place won”t do it for him.

  • With 60% of Iowa voters calling themselves Evangelicals or Born Agains, I’m not sure it’s indicative of how the rest of the US’s GOP members will vote. Only 18% of non-evangelicals went his way.

    What happens in Iowa stays in Iowa.

  • I’m sorry Dodd did so poorly but:

    Ha, ha, ha! cHuckabee! I may have to hold my nose and check some of the right wing blogs.

  • As I said, Iowa means nothing this year. Not when the election cycle is approaching 2+ years. Maybe, JUST MAYBE, the populace is ready for a meaningful discussion, then, choice.

  • And to confirm my analysis, MSM headlines are touting the Obama and Huckabee victories in Iowa. Do you honesly think that Huckabee can be elected? Obama? Not me.

  • Hey, TAIO…please do a “I read the right wing blogs so you don’t have to” update. I can’t hold my breath that long and I would love to know the chatter. 🙂

  • Just read the Green Party & Democratic Party Statements of Purpose in the CA Primary Election booklet:

    Realized I’m really Green after reading them….here is the Green’s …see what you think:
    1) Immediate withdrawal from Iraq/close Guantanamo/end the anti civil liberties Patriot Act.
    2) Climate Change: strong measures & renewable energy NOW.
    3) Support Universal Healthcare
    4) Voter verifiable paper trails etc.
    5) Abolish Electoral College & replace with national popular vote.
    6)Support instant runoff elections
    7) Support 100% public finance campaigns/free time on public owned media/ reapeal unfair ballot access laws
    8)Support proportional representation/same day voter registrattion & constitutional right to vote.
    9)Oppose early primary shuffle that rewards big money campaigns at expense of grass roots
    10) Support more thatn just 2 voices in presidential debates
    11) Support living wage, immigrants’ rights, education vs incarceration

  • Edwards is a solid candidate, and his showing in Iowa can only be a benefit to his campaign, considering he was outspent by millions.

  • Just wondering to whom Ron Paul’s supporters will turn when he drops out. I can’t imagine that they will be any too happy with the Republican nominee.

  • Do you honesly think that Huckabee can be elected? Obama? Not me. -citizen_pain

    If they are both the nominees of their respective parties, I suspect one of them might.

  • his showing in Iowa can only be a benefit to his campaign — citizen_pain

    Keep telling yourself that.

  • Just wondering to whom Ron Paul’s supporters will turn when he drops out. -104

    I dunno. Obama maybe. Hillary’s speech sucked tonight. The stage set up had the reek of hired guns and camera tricks, like Al Gore’s last rally in West Virginia. And she just went on and on.

    Obama’s speech was great. I don’t really care. Ron Paul or any Democrat would be fine.

  • 106: Techinacally yes, but I don’t see them being nominated. The cons will go with McCain due to his purported electability and shameful acquiescence to the fringe right, and the dems will cave, as usual, to the beltway’s preference.
    Business as usual.
    107: I will. It’s a lomg campaign.

  • i know she isn’t likely to get any sympathy on this blog, but the media is really doing HRC a disservice. Because the MSM monster needs fed constantly and quickly, they have all already run stories saying Edwards beat her for second. But she is now back up to 29.45 and if she can get back to 29.50, all of their scorecards will show a 30%-30% tie for second. But the meme will already be set.

    I know some local Edwards supporters had worried they would fall victim to this same phenomenon — that if rural reports were slow, the initial meme would get set before his stronger areas came in. Turns out HRC was the loser of the timing game instead.

  • A few thoughts:

    –the Republicans are in huge trouble. The Establishment of that party threw everything they had at Huckabee–and he blew out their guy, relatively speaking. Question now is whether the Club for Greed slimebags will rally ’round McCain in New Hamphire or try something else to stop Huckabee–because they realize that once the Christianists realize they can lead, not just follow in the Republican Party, they’ll probably never accept an Establishment candidate again.

    –Add in that the Democrats probably want Huckabee as the Republican candidate as desperately as the Establishment Republicans want anyone else, and it’s not impossible to envision a landslide Democratic win in November.

    –I *love* that Paul finished ahead of Il Douche. He’s got all this money now, and I wonder how he’ll use it; anyone know if it’s transferable to an independent/Libertarian run? FWIW, I think Paul would be slightly less likely to run against a Republican ticket headed by Huckabee, but who knows–Huck does still support the war.

    –Sort of to zeitgeist’s point @110, while I’m no fan of Clinton, it really was pretty shocking how clearly biased against her the MSNBC coverage–particularly Matthews and Mitchell–were. They detest her, and this is another reason why I think a McCain-Clinton general election race would be very bad news indeed for the Democrats.

    –Watching her speech and then Obama’s speech, it wasn’t hard to understand why the MSNBC crew was as slanted as they were. It was like watching a substitute teacher going up against Evel Knievel.

    Obama, Edwards, Clinton–really the very best result I could have hoped for.

  • I will – citizen_pain
    Oh I have no doubt about that. By the way, just so you know, Edwards did got 32% of the delegates in 2004. He ended up doing a little worse this time around.

    Zeitgeist- with 4 precincts left and her at 29.47, that’s pretty much impossible. It is unfortunate especially in a close race.

  • So bummed about Dodd. He’s a good man and a credit to his party. I do believe Harry Reid must be hearing footsteps now. Dodd for Senate Majority Leader!

    The big winner tonight … the Democratic party. A vibrant, enthusiastic turnout in the middle of flyover country bodes well for this nation’s future.

    Romney gets trounced after spending what must have been at least (warning: completely made up number to follow) $10,000 per caucus vote. Glad to see money doesn’t necessarily trump democracy ( at least not every time.)

  • Listening to Obama’s victory speech tonight reminded me of CB’s post from earlier today – “Is it independents’ day?” Obama has the policies that progressives like me want, but his speeches don’t contain the satisfying red meat that Edwards gives us.

    I’m not interested in compromising with hard-core Republicans in the House or Senate or anywhere else, but I think that there are a lot of folks out there who have been voting Republican who can be persuaded to vote Democratic by rhetoric like Obama’s that’s a bit more conciliatory. Obama impressed me tonight with the size of his win over the “inevitable ” Hillary, and with the tone of his speech.

    Obama vs. Huckabee in the general election, and a Democratic majority for the next generation. Sounds good to me.

  • I’m a little distressed by the fact that a large sum of contibutors here are falling into pre-defined framework of the process. Isn’t it high time we STOPPED giving weight to the standard apperatus and create our own?
    Just because a candidate didn’t have satisfactory poll numbers, or generate sufficient funds ( according to whom?), should they be dismissed?
    I think not. I stand for ideas and change.
    Change the paradigm.

  • The real loser tonight has to be Fred Thompson, because he didn’t poll well, nor did he poll poorly enough to feel like he could drop out, go home, and put his feet up on a nice hot-water bottle.

  • A big thank you to CB for hosting this after-hours wing-ding, and to all who brought chips and dip. I can’t remember seeing so much activity here this late. Pretty cool.

  • #118 – How disgusting is it that Thompson made such a good showing with NO effort. Can you imagine what this country would be like after four years of neglect after eight years of corruption, cronyism, and everything else wondrous that BushCo gave us?

    Thompson as president would lead to a world depression of a magnitude that we couldn’t imagine in the most horrific of scifi novels.

  • 40 years ago, I saw Robert Kennedy speak in Union Square in San Francisco a week before the California primary. The audience was amazing, because I haven’t seen an audience at a Democratic presidential event like that in the 40 years since: they were hopeful about the future, not just “keep the bastards at bay” hopeful, like it’s been since. Men, women, all ages, races, etc. Hopeful about the future. The only other campaign I saw that in was in 1960 when John Kennedy came to Denver and I played hooky from school to go see him.

    What I heard tonight when Obama gave his victory speech was that kind of audience, and the feeling I had listening to his words was the feeling I had in Union Square those decades ago listening to Robert Kennedy urge us to be “all that we can be, not what we are.”

    I sent out a New Year’s e-mail to friends this week, remembering living through the eye of the storm in 1968, there in the front lines here in America, and I have the feeling that this year we can go a long way to recovering and winning what we were fighting for then. Finally. I have no idea where we will be at 365 days from now, but I am sure the journey is going to be as interesting as it was that year 40 years ago. Hopefully without the national nervous breakdown.

    Most of you haven’t been alive long enough to know what real true hopefulness feels like in politics, but hopefulness won in 1960; it would have won in 1968 but for an assassin’s bullet And I think it can win in 2008.

    As for me, I am looking forward 382 days from now to having the hairs on the back of my neck stand up the way they did on January 20, 1961. “Ask not what your country can do for you…. Let the word go out that the torch has been passed….” Those words went on to fuel a decade of the most progress we ever made on the real issues facing us. I’m looking forward to the words of President Obama doing the same thing.

    That Zeigeist can tell us that the caucus was unlike any other he’d attended, that the results can show what the Des Moines Register found about people who hadn’t been involved in politics before going out on a cold night and participating….

    That, my friends is the best news there is.

    We are going to take back America.

  • I need a good lawyer to get my rights back not someone who wants to pull the people who removed them over to my table to decide how many they will let me have. You put people in your cabinet to promote and further your agenda not obstruct it. Different opinions will scream to you from the floor of the legislature and the MSM without adding them to your cabinet.

    I love Obama…he sure has got a pretty mouth…beautiful words but really his record shows he has done little for progressives in his career other than block them from winning primaries and supporting the party candidates and I hear little from him beyond how he will attempt to maybe bargain to get my rights back. How can you bargain with thieves. We need some strong opposition to what has happened to this country just to get it on the right path again. Sometimes dems (or some dems) go out of their way to take it up the ass. I believe in partisanship…at least for the next 4 yrs. to undo the damage these criminal obstructionist republicans have done to this nation. Just once I would love to hear Obama say, “fuck them, look at what they’ve done!”.

    Jrs Jr.How could there be nay connection what-so-ever between Obama and Hukabee, or for that matter Hukabee and the rest of the world. But if you do vote Huck & Norris…it won’t make a damn bit of difference because no republican will win the WH in ’08 no matter which dem gets nominated. All dem candidates are electable…I just want the most progressive to win the nomination. Obama has not supported progressive dems in the primaries though he claimed he would. There’s what he says…then there’s what he does…lulled by his rhetoric voters forget to watch his hands.

    Like citizen pain said this isn’t the election and there is a long way to go before people start calling who will be next (dem) president. Edwards is a long way from dead, Clinton isn’t done with, and Obama has had the least amount of scrutiny as far as his actual history and policies go. All are 10X better than the repubs. But everyone rooting for Obama here surprises me. Maybe it’s because he is so ‘idealistic’…but he’s still a corporatist and should be called on it by his supporters. No quater.blogspot .com has a lot of Obama information based in reality. The “I have a dream” candidate and the “We must take the country back from the economic royalists” should be fused into one, that would be the dream candidate. But I definitely support the latter over the former.

    I’m so glad this horse race is over because maybe now we can get back to discussing the issues instead of “who’s on second”.

  • Tom Cleaver, @121

    I, too, was reminded of the Kennedy brothers when I heard Obama tonight. And, all of a sudden, I was afraid of the parallels going too far.

  • Good night and good luck.

    A first step has been taken.

    The white, but not ‘whitetest’, heartland of America has embraced someone whose skin color would cause most to take notice in the public square.

    It’s also fired up hope among many of the long-standing admirers of the Carpetbagger.

    Edwards and Clinton may be among the losers today but their voices are likely to be heard in an Obama cabinet. Each of them has much to contribute to an administration that listens to those whose voices have been marginalized.

    What I most celebrate is a momentary release from the fear that seeps through the cracks in the facades of my climate researcher friends. Obama has in his pocket a speech written by Van Jones that delineates the common thread between civil rights, social justice, and prosperity – the outlines of the new energy era.

    The words of this speech spring from the font that JFK, MLK, RFK, and many others have tapped.

    Someone who can align the many in the service of our best managed to overcome realism and pessimism.

    It’s worth celebrating – and worth damning the cynicism of the punditry.

    The best dreams of America have been tested seriously but they are by no means over.

  • Libra:

    You and me both. You and me both. May we both be pleasantly surprised that our darker angels are gone. I hope I hope I hope…

  • ***Tom Cleaver*** comment 121. That was inspiring. Keep in mind that hope is not the only thing driving participants. Anger, rage and fury plus necessity to protect what’s left of our constitutional rights. “This can’t go on like this” is really a strong motivating force. The voters aren’t stupid…they’ve seen what inactivity in politics has led to and have woken up to the necessity of involvement to get this country moving in a different direction. “I’m mad as hell and I’m not gonna’ take this anymore” was lacking in 1960 but it is sure as hell here now. The abuse of government(spying, torture, lying us into a preemptive war, removal of habeas corpus, politicization of the DoJ etc.) and our failing economy(NAFTA, WTA, Trillions in debt, DoD that has lost billions unaccounted for, devalued currency, collapse of the housing market, government/contractor corruption) have reached a critical mass that Kennedy could not have even imagined in his ideology.

    Our hope is that we can make it stop. Citizens must be involved now as these conditions have forced us into involvement or we stand to lose everything great about our nation. Hope is not only mandatory, it is all we have left, but it is the hope that we are not too late rather than being visionary. Hope that we haven’t waited too long to reverse the effects of global warming or the complete erosion of our constitution. Hope that we will finally elect the right people, rather that we ‘must’ elect the right people who will fight for us to reverse these conditions.

    While you are rightfully enthralled by the speeches of the Kennedy’s and the aura of hope that surrounded them, I am encouraged by that first Kennedy-esque president FDR whose programs went against the powers that be and saved our nation. He took hope and forged it into an arm of steel to protect Americans with programs that got us working again to solve our problems in reality, not in imagination of what should be but in coping with what is. It’s not hope bringing out citizen involvement again…it is necessity.

  • Guys, perhaps I am more optimistic than I might be otherwise, but I have been reading a really good history book, that fills me with optimism as I consider what the people I am reading about accomplish, so far beyond what any of them thought possible.

    The book is “Greenpeace: how a group of ecologists, journalists and visionaries changed the world.” You can get it at http://www.rodalestore.com and I highly, highly, highly recommend it for all political folks here. 600 pages telling the tale of the first 10 years of Greenpeace, written by an author who was “on the boat,” with the kind of power in the writing that is worthy of the topic. “inspirational history” as they say.

    Bob Metcalfe (one of the founders) is quoted “We didn’t know, there was no manual, we made it up as we went along.”

    The book reminds me of “getting on the boat” myself. My boat didn’t have a chance of sinking in a storm, but the possibility of 40 years in Huntsville Prison for “possession” of a joint that didn’t exist was as bad as any storm at sea, and learning to outrun the Klan on a back road in Texas was the equal of having a harpoon boat fire one at your Zodiac. That was the GI antiwar movement at Fort Hood, and the GI antiwar movement was what stopped the war in Vietnam when the government realized they had an army they couldn’t trust. Lots of people paid with their lives for that, and most people don’t know it even happened, but something far more than any of the participants could imagine resulted from their actions.

    Those guys in Greenpeace back in 1971, they were “The Fellowship of the Piston Rings, from the Shire of Vancouver, who went to Mordor to confront Sauron” as the author tells the story of the first boat. And the week before Christmas 2007, the United States Government announced that they were agreeing to a treatity that would – by 2012 – leave the US with only 1,800 nuclear warheads. The same day, the Foreign Minister of Australia announced that the government of Australia was sending the Royal Australian Navy and the Royal Australian Air Force after the Japanese whaling fleet in Antarctica to gather evidence of their crimes against whales to present to the World Court. A human government stepped up to defend a non-human sentient species. That day, with those two events, nearly went unnoticed, even though they were the culmination of the greatest political movement since Abolition. Yes, the warheads left can still kill the world and the Japanese, even after they backed off the murder of fin whales and right whales, still want to kill 1,000 minke whales (0f 35,000 left in the world). The fight is never ever “over.”

    Great things are possible, my friends. The future is unwritten for anything.

    Nobody knows what will happen, but if you don’t “run balls out” (which has nothing to do with sex and everything to do with the controls of a 19th century steam engine at full power), then you’re going to lose. As I constantly say to young writers who are scared of “going for it” on a project that matters: “you can do nothing and the result is guaranteed – you get what you’ve got: nothing. Or you go for it, which has two possible outcomes: you get it or you don’t.” Taking action to get what you want is the only alternative that has a possible outcome you want.

    Trust me, folks, being for John Kennedy in 1960 was an uphill campaign. I got tossed out of being Junior Councillor of my DeMolay chapter for being a supporter of a “damn Catholic.” That campaign was the first time I went up against my (33rd-degree Mason) father about politics, a difficult choice for a 16 year old in any year. There was more overt religious bigotry to overcome with JFK than there is racial bigotry with Obama. Thank God young people are coming out for him – they’re the generation that seems (mostly – though it is is young Evangelicals who are powering pHucklebuck) to have gotten past the racist, sexist bullshit I’ve spent a lifetime banishing from my life (every day). The future may yet save us.

    Yes, Obama doesn’t say all the things I wish he would, and hasn’t done all the things I wish he’d done. But after 48 years of trying to get change in America, of getting America to be the country my 6-times-great-grandfather was fighting for when he crossed the Delaware with General Washington 231 years ago, I’ve learned you always ask for the whole loaf and say “thank you” for a big slice. The big slice is “progress.” We’re never ever going to be perfect, but we can get close.

    Would any of those guys on the boat in 1971 have thought they’d see a day with those two pieces of news would be broadcast within an hour of each other ? In fact, two of them have told me they never thought they’d live to see a day far less than that.

    As Billy Wilder said to me, “if you don’t believe in yourself, why should anyone else.?”

    We can win. Not everything we want, but we can get a helluva lot closer.

  • …but if you don’t “run balls out” (which has nothing to do with sex and everything to do with the controls of a 19th century steam engine at full power)

    Actually, Tom, you don’t have to go back to the 19th century. The more usual term, I believe, is “balls to the wall,” and it refers to the throttle and shift control on a boat, which each have a ball on the end.. When both are as far forward as possible (i.e. balls to the wall) it means the boat is going full speed ahead. The term has come to signify that meaning in non-nautical usage as well.

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