At the outset, let me concede that all the usual caveats still apply. Iowa is just one state; last night was just one contest; there’s a lot of campaigning left to do; the pressure and scrutiny from here on out is going to be extremely intense; and the rest of the strong Democratic field isn’t about to give up without a fight.
Having said all that, I think Barack Obama’s eight-point victory is every bit as remarkable as it seems, if not more so. This just wasn’t an ordinary caucus victory; it was history.
A young, African-American, first-term senator from a big city went to Iowa — an overwhelmingly white, rural state, with a large elderly population — trailed most of the year, and delivered a bigger win than anyone expected.
His campaign relied on tried-and-true methods — including a sophisticated GOTV operation — but more importantly, it took a gamble, counting on independents, students, and other young people to do what they usually don’t: participate in the caucuses. Confounding the experts, Obama’s strategy worked like a charm.
This is not to say Obama won thanks to non-traditional support. He won among Dems, independents, and Republicans crossing over to participate in the Democratic caucuses. Obama led in every income group, and even won the woman vote, despite facing the most credible woman presidential candidate in American history.
And he did so with the kind of passion candidates dream of. In 2004, support for John Kerry in Iowa seemed, to a certain extent, calculated — Dems were voting with their heads, concluding that a tough, smart, experienced war hero, rather than an upstart Vermonter, could carry the day. Kerry didn’t necessarily inspire the party, but he was the rational, logical choice.
In 2008, Obama won the caucuses in an entirely different way. As Jonathan Cohn noted, “He won this race not because the caucus-goers found him the least objectionable alternative, but because they found him the most appealing. They liked his speeches. They liked his ideas. They liked him.”
I’m reluctant to do it, but David Brooks’ column today actually rings true, at least so far as his Obama commentary is concerned.
Barack Obama has won the Iowa caucuses. You’d have to have a heart of stone not to feel moved by this. An African-American man wins a closely fought campaign in a pivotal state. He beats two strong opponents, including the mighty Clinton machine. He does it in a system that favors rural voters. He does it by getting young voters to come out to the caucuses.
This is a huge moment. It’s one of those times when a movement that seemed ethereal and idealistic became a reality and took on political substance.
Iowa won’t settle the race, but the rest of the primary season is going to be colored by the glow of this result. Whatever their political affiliations, Americans are going to feel good about the Obama victory, which is a story of youth, possibility and unity through diversity — the primordial themes of the American experience.
And Americans are not going to want to see this stopped. When an African-American man is leading a juggernaut to the White House, do you want to be the one to stand up and say No?
Now, it’s worth noting that all of the criticisms of the Iowa caucus process still apply. But in this case, the system’s flaws do not belie Obama’s success, in large part because of the way he won in Iowa.
I can’t be the only one who was a bit inclined toward a cynical roll of the eyes at the idea of winning on the back of unprecedented turnout, mobilizing new voters, brining in young people, etc. That sounds like the kind of thing that people say they’re going to do but never deliver on. But he did deliver. That’s impressive.
It is, indeed. In fact, if — and that’s not a tiny “if” — Obama can duplicate this elsewhere, it’s not unreasonable for his supporters to use this as compelling evidence of a winning general-election strategy. Yglesias added, “[I]t’s a reminder that tonight’s victory for organizing and mobilization was spearheaded by a former community organizer; he’s a guy who believes in the power of mobilizing new people and brining new people into the process. In Iowa, it’s worked very well for him, and it’s pretty thrilling to think about what could be accomplished with that kind of energy nationwide.”
Kevin argued yesterday morning that Iowa may ultimately not be “quite as important as everyone thinks. Partly this is because the race on the Democratic side looks pretty close, and a close race is unlikely to provide significant momentum for anyone.”
If the caucuses had turned out 31%, 30%, 29%, I think this would be largely right. But an eight-point win, I suspect, can generate the kind of momentum that gives Obama an edge in New Hampshire — where the polls show Clinton and Obama practically tied — and in South Carolina. And if Obama goes three-for-three, he’s going to be the nominee.
Given this, last night felt less like a victory and more like a breakthrough.