Putting aside, at least for now, genuine concerns about the structural flaws in the Iowa caucus process, and sidestepping analysis of specific candidates, yesterday was clearly a big win for Democrats in general.
For example, consider this take from Fred Barnes, an unapologetic water-carrier for Republicans in the always-conservative Weekly Standard:
Democrats nearly doubled their turnout–to 220,000–in the Iowa caucuses from 2004. This is a legitimate measure of their enthusiasm and zeal. Republicans drew 114,000 voters to their caucuses. This is a measure of their relative lack of enthusiasm and determination to hold the presidency. So Iowa reinforces the odds favoring a Democratic victory in 2008.
It sure does. In fact, Dems and Republicans entered the caucuses in similar positions — wide-open, competitive contests, with large fields of credible candidates, no incumbent, and no-frontrunner. For that matter, Iowa backed Bush three years ago, one of only two states in the country the Republicans turned from “blue” to “red” between 2000 and 2004.
Given this, there’s no obvious reason Democratic turnout should have been higher than Republican turnout. And yet, it wasn’t even close: “Projections showed a turnout of 220,588 for Democrats, compared to 124,000 who participated in 2004. Most projections had estimated turnout would be about 150,000. Turnout was also up on the Republican side, where projections showed about 114,000 people taking part.”
Actually, the 220,000 figure was a little low, and came early. The NYT reported this morning that “more than 239,000” Iowa Dems turned out to caucus, nearly double 2004 totals — and 2004 wasn’t bad.
How one-sided were the results? Mike Huckabee cruised to an easy victory on the Republican side, but his vote totals would have given him a fourth-place finish against the Dems.
The LAT, reporting from Urbandale, Iowa, described a common scene.
The Republicans gathered upstairs, the Democrats downstairs, and for more than an hour Thursday night, the enthusiasm gap between the two major parties could be measured by both numbers and sound volume inside the Central Community Church here.
In all, 303 Democrats were jammed into an overheated basement meeting room that crackled with excitement, while the 198 Republicans who filled the first floor church were more subdued — as if they were there for services, not for politics.
And that turnout happened here, in this Des Moines suburb’s Precinct 7, where registered Republican voters outnumber Democrats 747 to 660.
The disparity was repeated across Iowa, where more than 239,000 Democrats — a record — turned out to caucus from the Mississippi River to the Missouri River, far eclipsing the 124,000 who turned out four years ago. Among Republicans, turnout also was up but not as dramatically, reaching an estimated record 120,000, up from 88,000 eight years ago, the last time the caucuses were contested here.
As Iowans became the first voters in the nation to pick favorites for the major parties’ presidential nominations, the contrasting moods between these two caucuses underscored what could be a significant challenge for the eventual Republican nominee: generating enough excitement to compete with Democrats hungry to win the White House after eight years.
Not bad for a “red” state.