How big a post-Iowa bump?

January 5, 2008

Over the last couple of weeks, the gap in New Hampshire between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama on the Democratic side, and Mitt Romney and John McCain on the Republican side, has been shrinking considerably.

The question, of course, is whether the results of the Iowa caucuses would affect the New Hampshire race, and if so, how much.

In what I believe it the first poll conducted after the caucus results were announced, Rasmussen has new numbers for the political world to chew on. The pollster’s site has apparently crashed, but David Kurtz posted the numbers:

Dems: Obama 37%, Clinton 27%

Republicans: McCain 31%, Romney 26%

A few thoughts:

* I don’t know where Edwards fit into the mix.

* Because Rasmussen’s site is down, we can’t get a sense of the trend (or the methodology).

* Before anyone gets too excited about these numbers, remember that Rasmussen didn’t exactly nail the Iowa results (it had Clinton ahead throughout).

All of that aside, if Obama really is up by 10 points, that’s quite a bump.

I’ve been a critic of America’s youth for some time.
But on the other hand, I should cut them some slack too:
I mean really,
How long has it been since there has been a national candidate that can capture their imaginations and give their hopes flight?

Uh… how about: Decades X 4

Fuddy duddies and past tense pundits watch out!
The youth of America might be reawakening.

  • Ron Paul is placing 3’rd with 14% in the new NH poll and just in time for the debates. This looks like quite a situation for Fox. CNN smells blood and is on the attack. ABC is slinking around hoping to not be noticed.

  • The youth of America might be reawakening. — ROTFLMLiberalAO

    You’re welcome 🙂

    As for how accurate these results are, they should be pretty accurate. Obama was second and within striking distance of Clinton before Iowa, such a bump makes sense. Kerry’s Iowa victory gave him a big bump in New Hampshire, though that tends to get ignored because “only one person who won Iowa became president” — ignoring of course that Kerry’s Iowa victory paved his way to becoming the presidential nominee.

  • As for how accurate these results are, they should be pretty accurate.

    It would be nice to have the results from the site, instead of what a guy claims was on the site.

  • The real question isn’t how much of a bounce but who will win. I never thought the old New Hampshire polls meant much of anything. New Hampshire voters decide at the last minute and polls a week ahead aren’t very predictive.

    If there was no Iowa caucus, I think Obama would have pulled out New Hampshire, regardless of the old polls, due to his greater support by independents, as well as Clinton’s limitations. If Clinton had won in Iowa, she might have had a bounce and won, but with Obama winning he should go on to an easy victory in New Hampshire.

    As for Edwards, his populism wouldn’t sell well in New Hampshire. Maybe a victory in Iowa could have given him a bounce (especially as polls show a large number of people still see him as a centrist southerner), but after losing in Iowa he has nowhere to go.

  • The new post-Iowa caucus ARG poll is out and it’s a big one!

    Obama is up by 12%!! Prior to the caucus, Clinton was up by 6%.

    The Iowa bounce is real.

  • Rasmussen is back up—a wee bit slow to load, but their “market-numbers” are astronomical, putting the matchup at 4:1 favoring Obama. This “bounce” is looking more like a successful shuttle launch. If this keeps up, Richardson won’t get past NH; Edwards’ll be lucky to limp into SC, and the knockout punch for Clinton will come in 31 days.

    Can you say, “The nuking of Hillary-Shima,” boys and girls?

    Good. I knew you could….

  • More numbers, so you can try and be fair about the “bounce.”

    WMUR/CNN poll, done entirely post-Iowa:

    Clinton 33% (-1)
    Obama 33% (+3)
    Edwards 20% (+3)

    The Monitor is also out with a post-Iowa poll:

    Obama 34%
    Clinton 33%
    Edwards 23%

  • Steve said: Can you say, “The nuking of Hillary-Shima,” boys and girls?

    Nah, I wanna watch her melt after she’s hit with the bucket of water.

    But you can nuke all the Establishment morons who supported her because they thought it was the right career move. I’ll even crawl back into the bomb bay and set the fuse for that one.

    Question: what is 50 Professional “Democratic” Beltway Pimps dead?

    Answer: a good start.

  • Tom Cleaver’s Question: what is 50 Professional “Democratic” Beltway Pimps dead?

    My “Top Ten Ways to Use Tom Cleaver’s 50 Dead Professional Democratic Beltway Pimps” List:

    10.) Soylent Green.

    9.) The Democratic response to Mike Huckabee’s “I cook squirrels in my popcorn popper” comment.

    8.) An alternative to the Tyranny of Oil.

    7.) Lining for the bottom of a parakeet’s cage.

    6.) A pro-abortion public service message.

    5.) Dick Cheney’s last meal before being hung as a war criminal.

    4.) One of the few things I’d be willing to waste postage on, just to see the look on Rush Limbaugh’s face when he opens his mailbox and reads the attached note that says, “You’re next.”

    3.) A perfect Christmas present for a herd of feral cats.

    2.) Pothole-patching material for the DC street department.

    And the Number One Answer is: My new patio!

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