Last week, there was quite a bit of talk, in the 48 hours before the caucuses, that Mike Huckabee was slowly imploding in Iowa. His margin in some polls was slipping; Mitt Romney was gaining on him; after a ridiculous press conference, reporters were mocking him; and most of the insider scuttlebutt was that Huckabee’s support would collapse in the 11th hour.
Indeed, the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza asked seven political insiders, all with extensive campaign experience, to predict the outcome of the Republican contest. Five of the seven predicted a Romney victory (one “expert” thought Romney would win by double-digits). Obviously, we now know that Huckabee cruised to an easy victory, and all of the last-minute chatter was wrong.
Interestingly enough, we’re seeing the same thing right now, only instead of rumors about an 11th-hour Huckabee implosion, it’s John McCain who’s reportedly in trouble. Time’s Joe Klein is one of many making the case.
The polls still have John McCain comfortably ahead of Mitt Romney in the New Hampshire primary, but I don’t believe them. For one thing, McCain has just dragged himself through two of his worst debate performances ever. For another, Mitt Romney — even though under assault constantly in Saturday night’s debate — has had two of his best debate performances yet.
Maybe. Granted, I didn’t see last night’s debate, but after having seen Saturday’s event, I’d hardly consider it one of his “worst debate performances ever.” It seemed to me he delivered quite a few “zingers,” kept Romney flustered and on the defensive, and came out of the debate at least as strong as he went into it.
The futility of the various attacks on Romney was apparent in tonight’s debate: none of the Republicans chose to go after him…. That meant each of the candidates had been told by their staffs that Saturday night’s assaults hadn’t worked.
Again, that’s one interpretation, but I have another: maybe the candidates backed off on Sunday night because they’d already beaten Romney down on Saturday night, and didn’t want to be seen as piling on against the guy who’d already been beaten up pretty badly the night before.
For what it’s worth, Klein sat in on a Frank Luntz focus group in New Hampshire, with a Republican audience.
[T]hey…Just. Loved. Romney. Most of those who came in undecided had switched to Mitt by the end of the show. They just adored his position on illegal immigration (their dials plummeted when McCain said we had to be “humane.”) They loved his explanation of why he had switched his position on abortion. They loved it when he nailed Huckabee as a tax raiser…in fact, Huckabee’s failure to acknowledge that he was a net raiser of taxes ended his credibility with the audience (which, since this is New Hampshire, had been wary of his flagrant religiosity from the start).
Meanwhile, McCain was nowhere…. He may still have enough heft to win this thing. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see the race tighten or swing toward Romney over the next few days.
Honestly, I’d be delighted. If I had a choice, I’d love to see Romney trounce McCain. I just don’t think it’s going to happen.
Update: The focus group hated McCain’s desire to be “humane” to immigrants? Stay classy, Republicans.