It’s fair to say that most neutral observers, looking at the state of the Democratic race objectively, would agree that Barack Obama has become the front runner for the nomination. It’s hardly a done deal, but given the circumstances, the smart money is on the senator from Illinois.
That said, I think the talk about a Clinton withdrawal is premature, and at this point, kind of silly. This report was on the front page of the Wall Street Journal today.
Already some Clinton associates have begun lobbying for her early exit if she loses the primary by a big margin, as polls suggest she could. Several Senate colleagues who have sat on the fence are now in talks with Obama advisers about endorsing the freshman Illinois senator over his more experienced colleague.
Despite raising more than $100 million, Sen. Clinton also faces financial worries as contributions have begun to slacken. But she vows to fight on: Her campaign will pivot to focus more heavily on “Super Tuesday” Feb. 5, when 21 states vote. “We are going all the way to the convention,” Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson said.
Still, the maneuverings marked an extraordinary turn, and underscored the power of small, early-voting states to scramble all bets — especially in a year when the states’ contests are so closely scheduled. Sen. Clinton until now continued to hold wide leads in national polls; a new Gallup poll has her slipping into a dead heat. Her original campaign strategy, aimed at positioning her as the inevitable nominee who would capture the early states and wrap up the nomination before February, is now in shambles.
Well, yes, that’s true. “Inevitability” now looks pretty ridiculous, and counting on New Hampshire as a “firewall” was a mistake. She’s stumbled in Iowa, is likely to lose in New Hampshire, and according to the WSJ report, the campaign is “considering effectively ceding South Carolina.” No candidate, in either party, has won the first three big contests and gone on to lose the nomination. It would be, clearly, an incredibly difficult task for Clinton to overcome this kind of deficit.
But I still think talk of her departure is hasty.
Clinton, oddly enough, seems to have inadvertently stumbled into Rudy Giuliani’s campaign strategy: wait for Feb. 5 and see what happens. The polls in some of those states are, at this point, pretty unreliable, but there’s at least some evidence that Clinton can still compete in major contests like New York and California. If that’s true, why drop out a month beforehand?
Some indicators to keep an eye on:
* Money — Clinton has amassed quite a war chest. As long as she has resources, she’ll be competitive. If she starts struggling with fundraising, it’s a sign to wrap things up.
* Endorsements — Only 12 of the Senate’s 50 Democrats have endorsed anyone. If the dam breaks, and the senators start backing Obama, she’ll face enormous pressure to take one for the team. Until then, she’ll wait. (Most notably, watch what Al Gore and John Kerry do.)
* Polls — Clinton is likely to largely skip South Carolina because the proverbial writing is on the wall, but if she has a chance of winning states like New York and California, she has no incentive to end the contest. If the polls shift dramatically, she won’t want to embarrass herself. Until then, she’ll wait.
* Career prospects — Unlike John Edwards, who probably won’t seek public office again, Clinton has a future (and a day job) to worry about. If a prolonged campaign, featuring one defeat after another, is likely to undermine her standing in the Senate, that would be a strong incentive to stand down, but there’s no evidence she’s anywhere near that point.
Greg Sargent talked to one Clinton advisor yesterday, and learned that the campaign is worried about “long-term damage.”
“People who are close to Hillary personally are worried about what this is doing to her, what it might do to her career,” the adviser says. “This is about protecting her future. That’s the way it’s being presented. You have a number who are saying to her, `Consider the Senate career.’
“They’re worried about the way the media might characterize her — a woman being on the attack, that kind of thing,” the adviser continued. “There’s a real debate going on within the campaign.”
We’ll see how that debate unfolds. But in the meantime, it’s hard to imagine Clinton bowing out after just two contests, no matter the margin.
Stay tuned.